RIGHT NOW #022
This part is really hard to get right after failing to bounce of 2440s, it's going to take 8 trading days to get to 2520. Soon in that span of time. Silver we become more interesting. This is the best I can do right now.
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1) I'm lights out.2) will add in 6-7 hours.
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3) the thing about this part is 4) you don't know when that headline is coming in
5) but losing 2440s checing down from the 2457 spike has
6) made the 2483 ceiling REALLY TOUGH TO BREAK
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1) pay attention to the war news2) bc it'has been the game changer since 2370
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4:38 AM, options that expire in 9 hours are through the roof....1) it's almost as if every one expects a 2460 in 9 hours
2) it's reasonable
3) but I can't see how you would know that
4) besides war premium
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5) I've never seen 25-day (counting weekends) $200 OTM calls cost $10006) that basically means EVERY ONE expects 2600 by 8/30
7) and this just got real expensive over the last few days
8) so in chart above I do not see the vol
9) that is inferred by option prices
10) PLEASE BE AWARE
11) that means while I expect vol compression to hold 2520 10 days out
12) THAT'S NOT WHAT OPTION PRICES ARE SAYING
13) feels exactly like war premium
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14) this is a GIANT change of opinion since LAST THURSDAYบันทึก
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1) 2455-equivalent calls that expire in 8.5 hours cost $3702) that's ridiculous
3) but puts cost almost as much too!
3) watch out for CRAZY VOL BOTH WAYS
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12:25 PM: I'M UP:
1) last thing I saw was option prices screaming crazy vol
2) both ways
3) and went to bed
4) so so this reversal puts everything back to
5) previous expectations vs RIGHT NOW # 019, 020
6) AND PREVIOUS 100 DAY PLA
7) but I'm working out the silver problem right now
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12:47 PM REVIEW, WHERE WE ARE RIGHT NOW
1) gold's first 100 day plan with 2800s ceiling is bas case again
2) silvers 100 day base case DOES NOT CHANGE BC ITS 6HR BARS
3) we won't know until this time next week
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4) THE PROBLEM WHEN I GO TO BED AND ROUTES CHANGE
a) I don't have a way to fix this
b) bc if you replay #019 and #020
c) if I stay up another 30 min, I see the move
d) bc I already mapped it
e) but I can't fix this problem
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5) 1:28 PM ET, The reason I call it binary is price is a continuously binary pattern.
a) so we are 2800s for Halloween now
b) and we eliminated 3000
c) but we haven't eliminated 2900s
d) either gold catches down to silver
e) or silver catches up to gold
f) despite the move this morning the picture doesn't stop being binary
g) the ranges are shorter and finer and more precise
h) but that's only bc the dates are closer
i) I can't cut costs at the same time I need a second person to handle the opposing route
j) because I can't update both routes at the same time
k) while trying to cut costs down
l) so the problem is - in its current format and any future formats we can see...
m) is not a solvable one
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6) FOR EX: REPLAY #020:
a) in this one the first "dot" I added was the "blue dot"
b) and the last one was the "red dot"
c) but the question of the lines breaking had to be answered
d) so while I am working out silver's route on 6-hour bars
e) in context of "war premium"
f) I also need to run routes to the dots and then sleep
g) there's not enough time to fix this problem
h) that said, I'm routing to Wednesday right now and will post something here soon
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1:49 PM ET SO UP TO #020 this was the "V" that was and is still coming
a) but the floor as been rising for this scenario
b) now between 3306 and 2318
c) with the bounce right at 2470
d) but the twists bc of last night's "war premium" stall
e) has made the zig zag down (which was going to be big anyway) even bigger
f) this is not a quick map to solve
g) but you are going to those two boxes in the mean time
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h) unless the war news die
i) the 2-way vol will remain high
j) which is what is implied by option prices
k) FWIW, we moved 113 points down in 22 HOURS
l) which proves once again trend/pattern mean reversion
m) beats war fever even in context of a bull market
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2:27, 2406.xx, TradingView just updated their software somehow...
1) so chart above is best draft I have for 2312 low
2) before moving to 2470 high again
3) TradingView's updates are causing bugs in the publishing system
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9:30, that's the adjustment for 100-day silver chart.
1) now that we know the 100-day gold chart with 2505 top is CLOSE TO being set
2) I still feel that there should be an up shift
3) I don't know how much
4) maybe 2520 instead of 2505
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