XAUUSD-Gold-Trend Analysis Next Monday

7 ก.ย.
Recently, we have been emphasizing that gold should not chase the rise above 2530, and wait for the opportunity to arrange short orders at high levels at any time. The trend of gold on Friday was in line with expectations, with a sharp drop during the US trading session. Overall, the sharp drop from the high level may indicate that the top has appeared. However, the price fluctuations are always within the range, and it is difficult to continue if the range is not broken.

From the daily chart, gold prices rebounded briefly under the influence of last Friday's non-agricultural data, but then fell back and fell below the key support level of 2500, and the support of the short-term moving average group was also lost. MACD and MA moving averages showed an obvious dead cross, indicating that the upside is limited. The Bollinger Bands began to shrink, and the KDJ indicator formed a dead cross, suggesting that the bullish force in the market is gradually weakening. In addition, the big negative line on Friday further strengthened the possibility that the market top has been formed.

From the 4-hour chart, although the unemployment rate data during the US trading session was lower than expected, the gold price once approached the previous resistance level of 2530, but failed to continue the upward trend, and then quickly fell back to below 2490. At present, the short-term moving average group has formed a short position arrangement. Although the MACD is in a dead cross state, it is still above the 0 axis, and the energy column has weakened, indicating that although the downward pressure is large in the short term, there may still be repetitions. The opening amplitude of the Bollinger Bands also indicates that the recent fluctuation range is relatively wide. However, the gold price has fluctuated greatly in the range of 2530 to 2470 recently, and there is no obvious direction. Before this range is broken, the operation can maintain a high-level short position and a low-level long position layout.

On the whole, the short-term operation suggestion for gold next Monday is to short after the rebound, supplemented by long after the correction. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 2507-2510 resistance range, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 2485-2470 support range. XAUUSD

8 ก.ย.

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Gold's performance on Friday sounded the alarm for the market, indicating that the trend in the next few weeks will be full of variables. In this context, how to deal with potential volatility will become a key issue for gold traders. In addition to technical analysis, the results of the non-farm payroll report also triggered different opinions in the market. Although the non-farm data this time was lower than expected, the decline in unemployment has made the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut more complicated. The current market pricing shows that the Fed is most likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month, but the possibility of 50 basis points has not been completely ruled out. In addition, attention will be paid to the upcoming US August inflation data and the results of the European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting, which are expected to have a significant impact on the trend of the gold market next week. If the core CPI data is higher than expected, US Treasury yields may rebound, putting more pressure on gold. On the contrary, if the data is weak, the US dollar will be under pressure and gold may benefit from the rise.

Overall, although gold faces some downward pressure in the short term, from a long-term trend, with the strengthening of expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut and uncertainty in the global economy, gold is still expected to remain strong in the coming months. Market participants need to pay close attention to upcoming economic data and the Federal Reserve's policy trends in order to adjust their trading strategies in a timely manner.