Gold Forecast 20-24.03

Gold made very strong push on Friday, driven by the uncertainty. The bullish trend in continued. Overall I am expecting bullish continuation, but first price will retrace a bit.
2000 area is very strong psychological area, just like 1800.


Macroeconomics
The uncertainty is very high, because US banks failures. These banks are small, but still very big sign that recession is on the way.
This week there is FED meeting, where they will announce the next hike of interest rates. It is very important event, where we will se how FED will react of the situation.
- Will decide to bail out the banks, risking higher inflation.
- Will choose recession, rather than inflation.


Top Down Analysis


Monthly bearish manipulation was negated, meaning that Gold is very bullish.



Last imbalanced weekly candle is a very strong sign, that banks are buying. Gold negated one bearish manipulation area and it is about to break another one.



On 4H price formed a wedge and it was broken to the upside. Probably we will see a retest of it.


Benchmark



This chart shows very clearly, that the rally is confirmed.


Yields



There is a chance Yields to go up after liquidity grab. More clarity after the FED meeting this week.


XAUUSD vs GDX



GDX is going up as XAUUSD. For now nothing unusual.



Gold vs Silver



Silver also made new higher high, meaning that the bullish direction is confirmed.


Elliot Wave


This count was invalidated.


I need more clear structure to create new count.


Volume Spread Analysis



Future market started to build volume. We will have more clear picture, if Gold retrace without volume.



Retail Support and Resistance


Break and retest, may be.


Momentum



Price is overbought. It touched the band on daily time frame. RSI is also overbought.

For me, gold will retrace or consolidate for next week.