Gold - XAUUSD Top-Down Analysis (Long then Short)

Hello Traders,

Here is the Top-Down Analysis of GOLD - XAUUSD (Monthly, Weekly, Daily for direction and 4H for entry) for

Week 45 - Nov 02

M > After reaching its all time high and ending the said month in Doji price pulled back for correction. After massive impulse we expect price to correct at least till 0.382 FIB level on last monthly impulse. Price did make an attempt to drop towards 0.382 level but could not reach it. We can expect price to drop till this level at least.

W > Placing FIB on weekly bullish impulse we can see that 0.382 and 0.618 coincide perfectly with previous (2011) high and candle open position respectively. Price dropped in between 0.5 and 0.618 level of weekly impulse and started moving upwards but dropped back down last week.

D > Price has been dropping in consolidation zone of symmetrical triangle (1st drop during Aug-Sept period and 2nd drop now). Price has broken to the downside of 2nd triangle. It is respecting downward resistance trend-line.
For bullish move price has 3 barrier to cross, daily supply zone, downward resistance trend-line and another daily resistance.
Price is nearing 4H supply zone and we can continue with 3 bearish targets.
Target 1: 4H demand zone
Target 2: 0.382 Fib level
Target 3: Daily demand zone

As per COT GOLD saw major closure of both Long and Short, reducing net positions a bit and making it close the said week in a gravestone Doji. However gold dropped last week. Gold has been having indecision period due to US Elections and an attempt by DXY to recover. We can expect Gold to continue in similar trend this week as well.

4H > We get some short term clarity here. Price is now testing 4H support in its pull back, we can also see build-up of small inverted H & S formation. Price can move up till daily supply zone before making an attempt to the downside.

Pair Correlation > XAUUSD has positive correlation with Silver, AUDUSD and EURUSD.

Thank You
AP17FX