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3100 BY HALLOWEEN, DRAFT 8-3, SWING TO TO 2520
ที่อัปเดต:
Remember that when I was calling for 2500s, YOUR EXPERTS were calling for 2200s!! This is not close, ok?! Don't pretend that didn't happen! So now what do YOUR EXPERTS (legitimate trained professionals) think now? What's on their mind? Please don't answer this rhetorical question BECAUSE I DON'T GIVE TWO F'S what they think and WHY NOT? BECAUSE THEY CANNOT DELIVER LIKE THIS! The purpose of this post is for the people that say they don't have $148 right now. All you got to do is stay up for 24 hours READ AND FOLLOW DIRECTIONS. After that, you can pay for the entire way to "$3100 BY HALLOWEEN", ok? You want be cheap, fine, but this time tomorrow, don't say you don't have the money, Just go away.
7/17, 7:21 AM ET NOTES
1) lets review first
2) then we sill hammer the leverage at 2445-2450
3) I am going to post this first so we can get it up for general audiences as well
4) and add as we go
7/17, 7:21 AM ET NOTES
1) lets review first
2) then we sill hammer the leverage at 2445-2450
3) I am going to post this first so we can get it up for general audiences as well
4) and add as we go
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7:44 AM, REPLAY OF DRAFT 2:
1) in chart above, click it and replay the move (this is the origin of DRAFT 5'S THE CALL"
2) the important part of this draft is IT NAILED THE SHAPE OF THE 2293 BOTTOM
3) I love the comments on this one because all the people trashing it "another useless draft"
4) but zoom out wider to see the channel
5) because of not having a "confirmed channel"
6) the targets hit BUT NOT ON TIME
7) however because of the bet curve
8) THIS IS WHERE PRICE CATCHES BACK UP TO PREVIOUS TREND
9) so remember this when I bring it back up next week
10) that price will NOW EXCEED DRAFT 2'S HI-LIGHTS
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11) FOR HOW WE GOT HERE... the most recent post leading to this post ..12) I already linked below if you want to see them
13) they were not for general audiences so they are not on my ideas page
14) and not search-able either
15) but continuing from DRAFT 8-2:
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7:58 AM, I don't think the low comes UNTIL 1-3 PM, so:1) that's 5-7 hours from now
2) until then if you are short
3) just watch your stops carefully BECAUSE YOU WOULD BE SHORTING A RALLY
4) THIS IS SOMETHING WIDELY TAUGHT NOT TO DO
5) why? because it can go to to 2450
6) BUT HOW IT GETS THERE?
7) is an entirely different matter
8) this is why DRAFT 8-2 focused on the move to 2381.5 ( which was 82.3)
9) but I SAID NOTHING ABOUT SHORTING IT
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8:23 HERE'S CHART FROM LAST NIGHT CALLING SHAPE BEFORE 82บันทึก
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9:06 2376.xx almost 77, pattern is shifting a bit but still there1) we wait for the drop to 50
2) should evidence change, we will play it by ear
3) but almost is not enough to change the 2450 check down
4) it's previous all time high to move up
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9:42 AM, SO REPLAY DRAFT 8-2 HERE:
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6) continuing in chart above 7) THIS IS WHY THEY TEACH YOU TO NOT SHORT RALLIES
8) because the rules will change on you
9) IT DOES NOT MATTER TO WHAT WE ARE TRYING TO DO TO DAY
10) except that what could have been 70-80 now is going to be 40 maybe 35
11) because price would sideways to up and we would later
12) entry SAME TIME but different price
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13) again ... this IS NOT FINAL ... why? 14) because stick save setup could form like this:
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10:04 AM ET, 76.27, see? a) not final and NOT OBVIOUS AT ALL
b) if you play previous draft 8-2 I posted earlier
c) it captured the "two highs' at 81-83
d) and it implies a 55 bottom
e) but price could easily drop extra 10 in 5 minutes and go back up
f) no difference to anybody's world
g) except for people who try to out smart a big rally with "rules" as to what price should do
h) it "locks you in a thought process that denies the obvious AND OTHER WISE TOTALLY REALISTIC OUTCOME
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10:15, 65.16, funny how 18 point drop changes your view of what is likely huh?1) we still waiting for our entry
2) if can get 45 we will take it
3) but don't be that girl that "insists on 2445
4) like gold prices care what she thinks
5) as if she can't get 2445 then she won't put out....
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6) last time I checked, lots of women like gold7) hence gold has a reputation of "getting around'
8) but I digress...
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10:22, 71.xx its gonna get ugly9) watch this goes to 79-80 again
10) and still find 2446 before NY close
11) when prices want to zig zag randomly
12) if you think your elliot wave count is going to help you...
13) makes me shudder just thinking about i
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14) 10:29 AM ET, I think it's moving for 82-83 again right now15) changes to plans?
16) no, we wait and wait
17) for our trade I mean
18) what you do not the side is up to you
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19) what would be ugly? 82.5 followed by 59บันทึก
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20) because usually once you get that move to 63-6421) you don't go ALL THE WAY UP
22 and BUT IF YOU DO, DO THAT, you don't then push to 59 (and lower)
23) meaning very high 2 way vol for its pattern
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24) does a move to 60 (11:00 am) eliminate 2482? 25) and I mean before 59
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6) or something equally sick like 79-45? 7) you wonder how people lose money doing this?
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8) 12:01 PM , be very careful trading next 2 hours9) there's unresolved 2-way vol
10) I thought it would have released by now
11) considering we get closer and closer to the the turn up
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12:10, 2460.64 STILL WAITING FOR 45-50 12) when, damn it, when?
13) looks like 3-4 PM ET right before NY CLOSE
14) its going to come
15) the math is unsettled
16) there should be a surprise move in between
17) no evidence yet and only 230 min left
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ENTRY ALARM:1) 12:23 PM, and 2455.45
2) I don't care if it's -2 way vol or not
3) YOU START BUYING AT 2450
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4) the TARGET IS 2520 now looking like 3 AM again5) and 12:26, it is 2452 AS I TYPE!!
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6) DON'T OVER THINK THIS7) at 2447, I would be filled
----- BUT!
8 ) also please realize statistical error is a thing
9) it should be 45-50
10) but if 52 WAS IT..
11) nobody's going to buy gold and put in jail for breaking TA laws
12 be flexible with the target of 2520 only 16 hours out
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12:46, my clock says bottoms should be before 2 PM 1) BUY NEXT DROP UNDER 52.5
2) 1/4,1/3 of entry whatever
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1) 52.5 WAS LOW IN 2) I AM DAMN SURE!
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3) continuing in chart above... it's 2458.024) IT'S NOT OBVIOUS that's there's any room under 2454
5) this thing takes 1 bounce here AND IT'S ALL OVER
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7) continuing in chart above, if this hits 59 next, then low 100% in and it's all overบันทึก
8) 1:06 PM, I am filled for all 4 accts I manageบันทึก
1:08 PM ET, PLAY CHART AT TOP1) if you are not in yet
2) I beg you to keep the big picture in mind
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3) all I am sure about is we hit that box and get out at early at 25154) 14 hours from now
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5) this pattern is DIFFERENT NOW!6) BUT IT SHOULD AT LEAST HOLD THE SLOPE OF THE HI-LIGHT IN CHART AT TOP
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1:16 PM ET, 2459.XX, IT'S ALL OVER!!1) WE ARE GOING TO CLOSE NY OVER 2473
2) AND AT LEAST COIN FLIPPING FOR 2483
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3) IF YOU ARE NOT EXPERT LEVEL4) DO NOT F WITH THIS TRADE BY TRADING IN AND OUT
5) DO NOT DO THAT!!
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1) 1:44 PM 2454.22 HER'ES WHAT THAT MEANS FIRST2) THERE IS RISK OF OF 46-47 NEXT, WHAT ARE THE ODDS? I DON'T KNOW
3) THIS HAS ONLY SHIFTED IN THE LAST 8 HOURS
4) THAT PUTS CEILING NEXT 28 HOURS AT 2486
5) HERE'S WHY:
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1:53 AM 1) THERE'S NO DOUBT IN MY MIND WE GET TO 2530S by 3 AM FRIDAY
2) so yes buy and an hold would be fine
3) BUT NOT IF YO ARE EXTREMELY LEVERAGED
4) sorry I caught this slow, but it only showed up in the last few hours
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1:53 PM1) THERE'S NO DOUBT IN MY MIND WE GET TO 2530S by 3 AM FRIDAY
2) so yes buy and an hold would be fine
3) BUT NOT IF YOU ARE EXTREMELY LEVERAGED
4) sorry I caught this slow, but it only showed up in the last few hours
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7/17, 2:15 PM, WITH 1 EXCEPTION!a) if price moves fast
b) then we sell at 5PM BEFORE AFTERMARKET CLOSES
c) odds are 50/50 BETWEEN 5 PM AND 10 PM
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d) I am mapping this right nowบันทึก
2:22 PM ET, IT'S NOT 5 OR 10 PM , BUT 8-8:30 PMe) it's 2:22 PM NOW in NY
f) so 6 hours counting the aftermarket break of 1 hour
g) so target is 2285 8:30 PM SELL
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2:30 PM THINK ABOUT IT THIS WAY OK?1) the general pattern for this is A DIRECT LONGER RALLY
2) which is NOT TRUE, we know that...
3) so?
4) so it's NOT 3 AM FRIDAY THAT'S THE TOP
5) IT SHOULD 9 PM THURSDAY, let's say 2528 or something like that
6) higher than 20 but lower than 35
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7) 2:45 PM, 57.16, SO BY 5 PM END OF AFTER MARKET 8) we will be well into to 2470s...
9) play chart at top
10 ) VS YELLOW ROUTE THERE 2 MAJOR DIFFERENCES
11) MORE 2 WAY VOL OR ZIG ZAGGING
12) WE WILL TOP WHERE THE END OF THE SECOND TOP IS
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13) so if you don't mind, JUST HOLD TO TOMORROW NIGHT14) that's a wrap for this change
15) I'm sorry I didn't catch it sooner
16) but the pattern is created by the price action before it
17) so what really made it change
18) is the spike to 83 this morning and the sharp drop
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3:05 PM HERE IS THE NEW SHEDULE:บันทึก
1) there is very likely to be ANOTHER HIGH BEFORE NY OPEN ON FRIDAY 2) but at some point it's not worth the trouble like this:
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3:19 PM ET 2459.XX, TO HOLD OR NOT TO HOLD THAT IS THE QUESTION1) my view on holding or not is volatility average vs TOTAL RALLY SIZE
2) in that sense , YOU HAVE TO SELL TONIGHT, 9 PM, 2485
3) why? because at 59 that is 36 up
4) but the retrace is 18
5) if you are maxing leverage THAT'S NOT A CHOICE
6) SELL 2485 FOR SURE
7) this pattern is sticker... once it does this sharp move drop
8) it's basicallly 5 stair cases to Friday's 2530s high
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3:42 PM, IF YOU MAXING LEVERAGE BUY AND HOLD IS NOT THE RIGHT STRATEGYa) this is just gain/loss psychology
b) if it's that much leverage
c) he cost for waiting 3-4 hours to get back in is small
d) vs. watching your gains disappear
e) that's all I am saying
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f) JUST TRUST ME ON THISg) sell 2485
h) then wait 3 hours
i) get back in at 67-68
j) if YOU STILL WANT TO HOLD TO 2520
k) fine by me
l) but the first one at 2485 YOU HAVE TO SELL
m) because EVERYONE DOES
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7/17, 7:54 PM ET, 2461.15, TAKING TOO DAMN LONG1) I have to consider risks to everyone involved as a whole
2) if I feel there's one more delay to this
3) I will announce a TIME TO DELEVERAGE
4) that doesn't mean you exit, it means you HAVE TO BACK OFF SUPER MAX LEVERAGING
5) down to HIGH LEVERAGING
6) I don't how good the signal is, it's not ON SCHEDULE, THAT'S A PROBLEM
7) so be aware
8) but also be aware that I am right here watching constantly
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9) typo on 6) I - don't care- how good the signal...บันทึก
10) 8:34 PM ET, 57.34, DELEVERAGEA) DOWN TO 10:1
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B) B if you don't understand what that means ...C) then you should not be using leverage in the first place
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D) first pattern is a continuously changing signalE) we can always recommit but it's NOT OK TO LOSE
F) so delever
G) second, I am watching for another check to 2453
H) I need to know wh
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I) what that means from here to end of FridayJ) if any of this sounds uncomfortable to you
K) THEN EXIT NOW AND ITS 58.44 WHILE I TYPE
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8:48 PM ET 2459, THIS MOVE TOPS AT 2550, NOT 2520, or 2535A) there are 3 elements
B) higher, longer, more 2-way vol
C) so the target is SUNDAY NIGHT NEW YORK TIME
D) 2545-2555
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E) I am totally comfortable at 8:52 PM, 2459, WITH 20:1 LEVERAGEบันทึก
F) at 8:54 PM I am focused on trend mappingG) once I have this route to 2550, I WILL RE-ANNOUNCE MAX LEVERAGING & SUPER MAX LEVERAGING
H) or if price gives me a reason, I WILL ANNOUNCE ON THE FLY
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I) MEANWHILE IF YOU HAVE TO SLEEPJ) we are going to 2750 8/16-8/21
K) I understand that you can't be up all the time
L) so with that in mind let's figure worst case scenario so you can sleep WITHOUT GETTING PUSHED OUT FROM YOUR POSITION
M) in my mind worst case here is 53-47 and reverse all the way up
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N) very unlikely but we have to be prepared for itO) so that means whatever you are in...
P) make sure that a movetlto 2447 does not stop you out
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Q) if you can do that, I will worry about the restบันทึก
9:16 PM 2463.15, EXCELLENT NEWS!!a) all the recent notes since DELEVERAGING WARNING, I typed from my car on my phone
b) didn't see the move just now
c) SO?
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TYPOS FIXED!!!! 2453 not 2353, I am so sorry!!!d) RISK LIMITS CHANGE:
1) I am comfortable with 25:1 leverage
2) you WORST CASE SCENARIO floor is 2453
3) so whatever instruments you trade
4) your position MUST SURVIVE a dip to 2453
e) 9:21 PM ET 2463.66 RISK LIMITS CHANGE AGAIN!!!
1) I am comfortable with 40:1 leverage
2) I am comfortable with all ATM CALLS (2465 or lower) expiring 7/26 or later
3) AND ALL OPTIONS WITH LOWER RISK THAN THAT
4) WORST CASE SCENARIO FLOOR IS 2455
5) your position MUST SURVIVE a dip to 2455
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10:53 PM, 2364.86 IMPORTANT AF NOTES!1) RISK LIMITS change:
a)I am comfortable with 50:1
b) I am comfortable with ATM CALLS 2(2465 OR LOWER) expiring 7/24 or later
c) WORST CASE SCENARIO floor is 2457.5
d) so whatever instruments you trade -
e) your position MUST SURVIVE a dip to to 2457.5
2) WE NEED A NEW DRAFT
a) I will post it soon
b) I don't want to be a tease so we will keep this one public too
c) for general audiences of TradingView
d because of the route changes ---
e) I will only update the next post TO 2500 (bc I don't to do this to Monday AM)
f) if you want the updates beyond that
g) the subscription link RIGHT UNDER this section where it says:
h) FOR SERIOUS PEOPLE ONLY (bc we don't' F around ok?)
i) at 2500 either sign up, leave on your own, or I kick you out
j) it's better if you leave, bc if I kick you out, the system is annoying
k) should you want back in, it can be technical headache
l) tha'ts a wrap for this post
m) it's 2467.83 as I type, wait for the last LAST FREE POST!
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11:31, 57.84 Gabe asked if I am still on the same selling zones before at 2485.a) don't know yet
b) will know soon in next post
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THIS POST IS DONE, CLICK CHART ABOVE FOR DRAFT 8-4!
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