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3075 BY HALLOWEEN, DRAFT 7A

Continuing from DRAFT 6H, after much thought, I have chosen MUCH MORE USEFUL AND COST-EFFECTIVE MODEL going forward.

1) this gives you what I know for sure
2) but without hamstringing forecasts with historical examples
3) and should I ever have a "really good trend map with hi-lights"
4) I can always add it as a subsection
5) will add notes soon
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9:34 PM, Yeah I can't believe I haven't done this sooner.
1) ok so, when I use trend maps to give you the hi-light paths
2) the singular biggest problem is that ...
3) it "assumes" a specific rally structure
4) so we can take this assumption out
5) this will save us a ton of time from mapping routes to no where
6) and at the same time let us get on the same page
7) of what I consider trend facts that you might not think is obvious
8) and, should I ever see something I really love
9) I can still make such a map to illustrate that idea exactly as I see it
10) I really REALLY think this is the "method" going forward
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9:40 PM SO FIRST, WHAT I CONSIDER FACT BASED ON TECHNICALS+FUNDAMENTALS
1) we are in a bull market
2) we are going to 2700s maybe 2800s THIS AUGUST
3) and IN THE CASE WE DO NOT GO TO 2800S THIS AUGUST
4) we would go to 3050-3100 BY HALLOWEEN
5) I am sticking with the title 3075 BY HALLOWEEN BC IT'S CATCH AND SPECIFIC
6) and annoy all those bears that think they know everything
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9:49 PM ET 2369 THESE BOXES ARE THE "LATE MODEL"
1) which can say the time limit of a price target
2) but DOES NOT COMMENT ON THE EXACT ROUTE THERE
3) this part, I CAN ALWAYS ADD WHEN I AM REALLY SURE ABOUT SOMETHING
4) as opposed to modeling a path based on historical price action
5) which while effective at times
6) is a total failure other times
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7) so from this chart what I can say super confidently (JUST EDITED FOR TYPOS)
a) we are going to 2450, there is no doubt in my mind
b) when?, if it's super early, Friday
c) if it's super late, next Wednesday
d) low is in
e) the circle/ellipse is strong buy retrace area
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f) the 2425 box is this Wednesday to NEXT Thursday because
g) you go 2425-2450-2425 BEFORE 2500
h) this model also has 2550 BY 7/26
i) I CAN ALWAYS MOVE A TARGET UP
j) but this way is soooo much better, from a risk aversion point of view
k) and we do not have to to over anticipate , but can still be pleasant surprised
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l) and furthermore, I don't know if you know this
m) but creating those maps are SOOOO time consuming
n) and while you can be amazed every now and then
o) it's bad strategy overall, bc your perception of what is "likely" are formulaic
p) and tied more to historical price action
q) as opposed to what is going on live
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A GREAT EXAMPLE IS WHAT JUST HAPPENED THIS WEEK:
1) my few on 2450 and higher is rock solid
2) but that DID NOT MEAN IT HAD TO BE IMMEDIATE WITHOUT CORRECTION TO 2350
3) but when I am spending 18 hours a day "modeling' price action based on historical price action
4) what I see is a formula as opposed what is possible and immediate
5) so I can miss something, that is SOOOO obvious because all my attention is on trend modeling
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10:42 PM ET 2368.XX, WHAT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT MOVE COMING?
1) right now it is WHEN DO WE GET 2415
2) in chart above there are 3 lines above the circle or ellipse
3) price is now above the bottom line, if t gets above the middle line
4) and then STAYS THERE TO WED AT NOON
5) price can move for 2415 on Thursday by noon
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8:56 AM ET, 2378.xx, that's not fair to me Kenton:
1) I've said several times in the last week that it's easy to call a price
2) BUT HARD AF TO SAY EXACTLY WHEN
3) that's what the hi-lights attempt to do
4) but the only way for that to work, is for them to "continuously remodeled"
5) I know it can be done, but I am a human being not a machine
6) and even it it could, it would be a % model
7) ala 60/50, 70/30, 80/20 (the "FAVORITE VS. FIELD MODEL")
8) but not having the exact hi-light doesn't mean "I'm taking the easy way out"
9) it just means the "the hard way out" is just too damn hard to do
10) because - I've said this before - getting the hi-lights right is ..
11) on par with magic BECAUSE IT'S NOT SUPPOSED TO BE POSSIBLE
12) that said, I DISAGREE that this is a weaker model
13) because I can clearly state what I consider "obvious" or true (targets in time zone)
14) but still leave room for WHAT IS ALSO TRUE WITHIN THAT NARRATIVE (or 2-way vol on a sliding scale)
15) because you can only prove/disprove rally structure in hind sight
16) how many times have we nailed 70% of the structure and then get surprised on when it's 75% there
18) and we think, "there's no way" this takes a different path....
19) AND IT DOES ANYWAY, not terribly different
20) BUT DIFFFERENT ENOUGH THAT IF YOU ARE NOT A LONG TERM TRADER
21) IT CAN CRUSH YOU
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22) and I really believe this allows you to perform better
23) because the WHOLE POINT IS TO MAKE MONEY not to be a magician
24) I am not trying to impress women by wowing them with dance moves
25) I am simply trying to prove the difference between what is "knowable" and what is "not"
26) and how that configures in to your trading I leave up to you
27) bc at the end of the day, I forecast, I do not do your trading for you
28) but I stand with conviction, with my intermediate-long forecastf
29) not with my "daily wiggle forecast", that's impossible to do right all the time
30) and no, I DISAGREE 100% THAT "it's the weak way out"
31) THIS IS THE SMART WAY OUT
32) give 60 minutes and I'll improve upon this WITH AN EXAMPLE
33) where we can be more accurate WITHOUT GETTING PENALIZE FOR IT
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34) we are not children Ken, it did not cry manipulation when it got hard
35) what the hell is creativity if you can't use it?
36) with that said:
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สแนปชอต
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9:28 AM ET 2380.XX and 2 min before NY OPEN
1) so in chart above red is favorite
2) followed by gray, then blue extension of red
3) WE ARE GOING TO 2450
4) tell me why I have to choose 1 path up when I can choose 3
5) tell me?
6) it doesn't make any sense to PICK 1 ROUTE AND THEN DIE ON THAT HILL
7) especially when WE KNOW IT'S GETTING THERE EITHER WAY
8) so let's say it takes the fastest way up (red), and close Friday 2445
9) THAT DOESN'T MEAN RED WINS NEXT TIME!
10) it only means it wins this time
11) that's all that it means
12) so the most accurate way WOULD BE A ROUTE TREE
13) the problem is the "explosion of routes up" the higher you go
14) JUST LIKE A TREE
15) we can explain this without trying to nail the entire tree
16) not even a machine can do that
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17) the move that crushes you is this move:
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สแนปชอต
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18) tell me why it's not possible?
19) the process would be eliminating it form rally structure
20) BUT YOU CONFIRM RALLY STRUCTURE RETROACTIVELY
21) THAT MAKES THAT PROCESS A 70/30 AT BEST TO BEGIN WITH ...
22) each time you "confirm a new rally structure"
23) and I don't your team really understands
24) that it's 70/30 EVERY DAY, not the entire way
25) so after 3 days (and I know the numbers are not exact) it would be 70/90
26) think about it
27) THIS IS WHY YOU ARE BOUND TO GET IT WRONG WITH ONE ROUTE
28) is that not obvious?
29) but they already have it and I've already seen the evidence
30) at the end of the day LRC, SMA, VWAP are all just formulas
31) VW-LRC is probably the best way, but TELL ME how you know which volume to use
32) when you have 10 different tickers?
33) bc WE CANNOT USE DAILY VOLUME for 22-min bars
34) that almost makes the problem worse
35) that's a wrap for this figh
36) if your team got another idea, I'M ALL EARS
37) been 4 years now, all you do is YAP YAP YAP
38) I've seen 2 ideas from them, JUNK AND JUNK
39) daily VW-LRC for 22 min bars, give me a break
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40) remember that day that guy tried to sell us the RSI strategy?
41) com'on now, HE HAS NO CLUE THAT "HE HAS NO CLUE"
42) plus, there are moments when I know when the maps are really strong
43) and it's not because of "mathematical perfection"
44) because true strength is "almost emotional and not mathematical"
45) in the sense that when PRICE IS REALLY STRONG
46) IT DOES NOT NEED a perfect setup, just a "close to perfect" one
47) if it starts to "need a perfect perfect" setup, that almost always means you're too early
48) and the "default bear switch is wrong" IF THE SLIDING SLOPE IS STILL INCREASING
49) this is because you don't know if the late move stops at 2430
50) YOU DON'T KNOW THAT
51) what if the late move blasts to 2465
52) your "quant guys" going to cry REVERSE MANIPULATION?
53) grow up!
---------------------------------
54) any way, 2386.xx an 9:56 AM ET...
55) POWELL IN THE HOUSE (literally) in 4 minutes"
56) be careful if trading often here
57) it's obvious why
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58) remember that day that guy said, "I wonder if there's a way to improve your formulas" (he meant me)
59) what dude? you want me to make you 12 hour charts ... 12 times a day
60) and you're paying me "NOTHING"
61) this is not a beauty contest
62) I've never gotten paid for destroying you, not even a thank you like
63) "thank you for waking my bearish dumbass" up
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64) WHERE YOU ARE YOU NOW?
65) why talk all big and bad, "big bear"
66) and all sudden silent 16 hours later?
67) where are you friends and your experts?
68) I don't care what your experts say
69) SO OF COURSE I DON'T CARE WHAT YOU SAY!
70) I'm going to bed, I need it
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10:12 AM, 2383.XX, I know I said I would stay away and walk you to 2450
1) but I can't prove that it has to be tomorrow
2) it can be
3) but like I said in notes above
4) tell me why it cannot be next Wednesday?
5) it CAN!
6) what are we going to cry about it?
7) that's silly, I am going to bed
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8) gun to my head and 1 call, I would say Monday for 2450
9) but what's the big difference between Thursday night, Monday, and next Wednesday?
10) NOTHING UNLESS YOU ARE DAY TRADING
11) and to do that effectively
12) you need 12 hour charts 12 times a day
13) WHY?, so you can be "updated" all the time
14) why should I do that just to impress you?
--------

15) and for the record, we already did this process last fall'
16) if I am on the "immediate picture too much"
17) I lose sight of the bigger picture
18) that's why this is THE BEST MODEL GOING FORWARD
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10:42 AM ET, ooh.. .gold down 10 pts from 2386
1) time to show up and talk smack bears...
2) it's your last chance!
3) do it now while you still can
4) or you gonna have to shut up for a long effing time!
5) ok so, it's 2377.xx as I type at 10:44 AM
6) LAST NIGHT, I said the zone for bulls was noon today to noon tomorrow
7) and bulls target is 2415
8) so from here to the rest of Toyko
9) the two levels to watch is 2383 and 2389
10) 83 sends bulls to 89
11) and 89 ends bulls to 2415 AND HIGHER
12) but for the purposes of here to THURSDAY NOON, the mark we are watching is 2415
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7:10 10:58 AM ET, GUN TO MY HEAD AND I HAVE TO PICK 1 ROUTE:
สแนปชอต
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1) it should be Tuesday very very early
2) or Monday very very late
3) same thing, for 2450
4) but if shows up Thursday night, it's not like that's a surprise
5) or really late next Wednesday same thign
6) it's all ONE ROUTE TREE
7) it's impossible to call the one singular move
8) what I do think is really favored
9) is a break of 2392 and move for 2415 by noon tomorrow
10) but this is all dependent on price holding this level right now 2375
11) for the rest of the day
12) other wise the move gets pushed forward one day
13) but the math is not always sideways shifting, for example:
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14) สแนปชอต
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14) I've come to realize the truth of short term vs long term
15) that is SHORT TERM ALWAYS MATTER MORE UNTIL BREAKING POINT
16) so for example, in chart above orange shift would be light gray
17) but it doesn't have to be
18) if it moves sideways too much
19) at some point, the "long term" mean reversion forces a vertical move
20) so this is why the this model in chart at top, a long with notes
21) is the best model period full stop
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สแนปชอต
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5) continuing in chart above and it's a wrap for my day
6) obvious if you see 2365 NOW... STRONG BUY
7) it should not stay there long if it hits
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8) I don't even think it can break 67.5, so I would be a strong short term buyer at 67.5
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9) otherwise I have held my long position the entire way with some hedging during check downs
10) but that's basic long strategy you'll find anywhere else
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สแนปชอต
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10) ultimately, price forecasting IS ALWAYS AN "IF-THEN" model
11) so the accuracy is basically HOW TIGHT IS YOUR "IF-THEN WINDOWS"
12) I think I can get it down to the tightest window of any method I've seen personally THAT IS PUBLICLY AVAILABLE
13) for example: my call right now
14) if we CLOSE 2383+
15) we get 2415 tomorrow
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16) and for all those dumbass big bears
17) with this model, I am going to lay waste to your entire digital lives
18) DON'T GET ME WRONG, I'm going to make you money bc it'll become obvious even to you
19) that you don't know what the hell you're talking about
20) and it's easier to read off my script
21) but besides making you money
22) I'm going to destroy you once and for all
23) got anything else to say?
24) you better say it now while we are still under 2400
25) bc once I crush 2450, you'll never see 23xx ever again (at least for years and years)
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12:11 PM, 2380.XX, I am so close to destroying all bears today, soooooooooo close
1) you will become extinct
2) you will never show your face on this board ever again
3) literally inches from wiping out bears population on earth
4) that there will be no panda bears when you go to China to visit the Great Wall or something
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5) might even wipe out entire populations of raccoons
6) you're brilliant if you get that joke
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7) for "jesuscrisissuperstar": we have a deal
8) if I 2450 smack you in the face w/in 72 hours...
9) you shut the f up forever
10) don't back away now
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HERE'S YOUR DAILY BINARY SO I CAN SLEEP:
สแนปชอต
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SO AT 12:29 PM and 2378.65
1) the primary is close 2383 and that means 2415 tomorrow
2) the secondary check to ellipse (strong buy)
3) which pushes 2415 to Friday
4) so that's what the next 3.5 hours of NY decide
5) 4.5 if you count aftermarket
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6) primary route is favored bc intermediate trends are screaming price is late for
7) for intermediate-long term mean reversion
8) that's a wrap for Wednesday and I'm going to bed
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9) a check to anything under 70 is a strong, strong buy
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สแนปชอต
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1) SO AT 72.43 at 1:28 PM ET
2) it would seem like it's the black route in chart one above this one
3) but IT'S NOT OBVIOUS THAT IT MUST TAKE THAT LONG TO GET TO 2415
4) meaning even though we are down here again
5) it MAY NOT TAKE TO FRIDAY TO GET TO 2415
6) it's still very much dependent on what happened here to midnight
7) because the Thursday route for 2415 isn't dead, it's just slowed down
8) we won't know until aftermarket close
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1:47 PM 67.5 VS 69.5
9) earlier I said 67.5 floor then bumped it to 69.5
10) it's 71.7 now
11) first, please understand a difference of $2 for 2370 price is splitting hairs
12) but it's important bc YOU HAVE TO HAVE HEDGES
13) so the checkdown floor is 69.5
14) the hedging floor is 67.5 or what a turn of as specific wave for this setup
15) so if it hits 67.5 I hedge calls with puts
16) and release them as it turns
17) this is almost the same as sitting out and waiting for the price to literally turn
18) but the singular difference I feel is simply WHETHER OR NOT YOU ARE PATIENT
19) bc if you exit positions totally, it's easier to turn everything off
20) THE VERY MOMENT YOU HAVE TO PAY ATTENTION
21) there's carry (time cost) to holding both puts and calls
22) so it forces you to pay attention
23) but other wise, no true difference except for leveraging factor
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24) so despite being down here right now, the base case IS STILL 2415 TOMORROW
25) why?
26) bc from a read of intermediate trends
27) bears have to prove they can stop or even delay the move
28) not the other way way around
29) so at 72.xx the two numbers to watch when price bounces are 83 and 89
30) 83 guarantees 89 and 89 guarantees 2415 (and by guarantee, I mean soon after)
31) bc we going up either or
32) the question is WHEN NOT IF
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7/10, 4: 36 PM ET, 2371.65, bears stalling bulls break out
1) but for how long
2) again my aim is WHEN DO GET TO 2415
3) why this number?
4) no particular reason except that's what the "trends say is mostly with next move up"
5) 45 points up from 2370, that's all that it is
6) you can measure this with trend waves
7) AS THIS HOUR, I STILL THINK IT SHOULD BE THURSDAY
8) but of course, not necessarily before NY CLOSE, which is 24 hours out
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5:12 didn't get any help from the last 15 minutes of NY aftermarket
a) that's a bad signal
b) that this would not take the fastest route
c) that's ok
d) the slow route still have us 2450 next Tuesday
e) plus, there is a point in which we are supposed to go vertical too
f) it shouldn't be an arc the entire way - not that it can't be
g) what I don't get is... we passed "sideways limit expiration" BEFORE THE CHECK TO 2350
h) and we ARE STILL 2371 UNDER 77-92 MARK
i) at which do we go vertical to make up for this?
j) it can't be far away
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k) I see 2406 really clearly tomorrow, 3.5 days too late vs original projections
l) and I see 2421 on Friday
m) then I THINK I SEE CHECK DOWN
n) not sure about this checkdown
o) it depends how fast the curve turns
p) and right now, it says check down after 2421
q) we will see about this later
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r) right now, at 5:26 PM, I think the odds say 2450 is 50/50 for Friday
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สแนปชอต
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s) so at 5:32 PM, that's new base case
t) 2415 tomorrow
u) 2435 Friday
v) 2450 Monday
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FOR MJ/MOSTRO:
1) let's go to 7/19 on this model
2) I really want to prove this model's effectiveness
3) not just on the way up to 2520
4) but ALSO VS 2-WAY VOL
5) & we will regroup at the check down from 2520- to 2450
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6:21 PM ET, WE HAVE TO SCRAP OANDA'S ticker
1) bc 5 minutes every day is 1300 minutes a year
2) it doesn't sound like a lot, but when you chart with 4-, 8-, and 22-min bars
3) it's A PROBLEM that messes with my "mean reversion signals"
4) so I will make a 160 min adjustment for IDC/ICE TICKER
5) and we hope we don't have another situation where they stop working like the week before
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9:45 PM ET 2375.XX can't comment a lot right now
1) working on transferring everything back to IDC/ICE's XAUUSD ticker
2) it's time consuming AF, but we don't have a choice
3) the evidence says it's STILL THE MORE ACCURATE TICKER despite those lost 160 minutes
4) so after I transfer and adjust for that, I'll comment more
5) but all things previous said still true
6) especially about 83 and 89
7) to guarantee 89 is soon after... you have to hit 83
8) if not it's more zig zag until CPI I
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9) ... CPI release in NY tomorrow which is 10 hours and 42 minutes out
10) that's all until I get all this moved back to what we used before
11) bc IDC/ICE ticker caught ALL THE PREVIOUS CHECK DOWNS
12) it was the only one that caught 100 pt check down in 36 hours scenario
13) so we have go with what we know works
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14) overall, it was still good that this happened
15) otherwise, I might not have considered to use this model
16) and would eventually get caught in worse scenario
17) so annoying but has to be done, and at the end, better for everyone
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สแนปชอต
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18) on big bars they are the same
19) but in chart above on 2-min bars
20) they are the same, BUT NOT REALLY
21) this "not really part" is a big deal ...
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22) for the record, for execution I prefer OANDA
23) but for forecasting IDC/ICE is head and shoulders all other tickers, spot, futures, etf, you name it
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24) and it's not close
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สแนปชอต
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25) in chart above, previously was not sure how far up we get BEFORE CPI
26) it's 77.xx now
27) it's obvious we can get 83 bc London premarket still 3.5 hours away
28) which means 89 should hit BEFORE CPI
29) so the 2406 should come during NY
30) the question is now when does 2415 come?
31) we have shot at 2415 before NY CLOSE tomorrow
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32) and I mean a REAL shot, as in it should be favored, I just don't want to say that
33) bc I feel like saying that jinx the move
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34) BTW, that new ellipse is not a strong buy area marker
35) it's a check down marker watch from 2421-2435
36) just so we remember to be careful ahead of time
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37) current math says 2435-2415-2455-2415-then setup for 2515
38) all that means is once at 2415, the strength will slow to 2435 in which ...
39) there "should be" a 20 pt retrace to 2415 again before 2455 top
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40) so maybe use a different symbol? yeah... triangle
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41) so earlier I said:
>>> g) what I don't get is... we passed "sideways limit expiration" BEFORE THE CHECK TO 2350
>>> h) and we ARE STILL 2371 UNDER 77-92 MARK (it was 71 earlier)
>>> i) at which (point) do we go vertical to make up for this?
>>> j) it can't be far away
42) I am pretty tired tonight
43) anything I stated about 2406, 2415, and 2435 right before this
44) DOES NOT INCLUDE THIS "POINT"
45) in which we "make up" for the stalling?
46) do have to we make up for the stalling?
47) WE DO NOT HAVE TO -- BUT IT WOULD MAKE SENSE IF WE DO
48) so what does that mean then?
49) that means we hit 2450 before Friday is out
50) and maybe check to 2415 after that too
51) before Friday is out
52) this is not a forecast
53) JUST BE AWARE THAT IT'S "ON THE TABLE"
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12:25 AM ET, 7/11, the fastest scenario
54) would be price beats 3 boxes in chart at top to 2500
55) I just don't think that's possible after the check to 2348
56) I still don't think that's possible, but I could be wrong
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57) yeah, it's no
58) bc I made new boxes for IDC ticker that are further out
59) so never mind
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60) but at 12:29 and 81.44, we are so damn close to 83...
61) we have a real legit shot at ...
62) making jesuscrisissuperstar, shut the f up
63) and that means 2450 before Friday is out

adding at 12:39 AM ET AND 81.XX

64) so 83 means 89 soon
65) but you know how I feel about London and the 3 AM ET sell off
66) they've been "profit taking" every damn day since 1250
67) and remember, NO BULL SETUP THEY CAN'T SHOOT DOWN
68) we know this and we have proven it
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69) so if you see 89 before London pre-open in 100 minutes
70) it's ok to chill out here a little bit
71) I don't see how this gets past 92 any how, especially before CPI release
72) I could be wrong but I don't care, I am "long long", long for the long term
73) I am going to bed
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74) what I am saying is, if you see 91-92 before 3AM ET
75) THEY CAN EASILY DROP THIS TO 75 AGAIN
76) after which it would get bought and push back up right at 92 before CPI
77) this is not a "forecast" as much as much AS LONDON DOES THAT ALL THE DAMN TIME
78) so be aware IF YOU ARE TRADING IN AND OUT
79) I could care less what they do here bc I am long to until at least 2450 break
80) good night
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81) BTW, I HAVE A REALLY GOOD SIGNAL SAYING 2515-2525 NEXT THURSDAY
82) just keep this in mind
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83) where's all the big bears now?
84) I was about to make rant but just forget it
85) why I am wasting time with that?
86) good night
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87) just watch out for LBMA rug pull starting 3AM
88) and then "BigBear shows up to talkt trash immediately right after"
89) it's ok, he will be extinct before NY close
90) it will be like "last words" before we execution type of situation
91) or last gasps of air, it's whatever
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92) I am lights out, but we DID NOT MAKE IT TO 83... so be careful if you are in and out
93) London pre-OPEN is 34 min out
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2:47 AM, it's weird too, try this:
1) my math says 2383 needs to hit to get to 89
2) if you use IDC/ICE's xauusd ticker it only made 2382.99 before dropping
3) but OANDA's ticker hit 2383 SEVERAL TIMES
4) strange coincidence?
5) maybe, or maybe not
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6) all of sudden I woke up to see what was happening
7) and I like what I see
8) 3 am ET about to hit
9) and if you know me, that's bad for gold 9 out of 10 days
10) but if it's going to bump up here
11) LIKE IT DID THE MORNING AFTER 2293...
12) that's a great f-ing sign and I mean that 100%
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13) the actual reason this time slot is interesting is that
14) 3 AM - 4AM is the only time shared by TOKYO and London
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15) last hour of Tokyo, and first hour after of London (not counting premarket)
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16) compression is real tight right at 2390.5 and previous high last Friday was 2392.xx
17) so besides that, this is going no where quickly
18) maybe a bit higher setting up for CPI which is now 5.5 hours out
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3:17 AM NOTES - 3AM ET SELL OFF
19) so the market hit and it's going down since 2382
20) it's 79.5 as I type and that's ok
21) I don't mind at all if it moves for 77.25 and then bounce up
22) anything worse than that is weird (bc it's really not supposed to happen)
23) not terrible by any means
24) but really weird, and weird is bad bc it's not supposed to be weird
25) and we need to understand why that is
26) besides being the hour I hate and all
27) further more, I get banned from tradingview if I comment too much on my posts
28) so I have to post another one to continue commenting
29) not bc I need a new one
30) so here comes DRAFT 7B
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31) and here is 7B:
3100 BY HALLOWEEN #7B, BEARS GETTING ON ENDANGERED SPECIES LIST

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