Gold - Playing with Fire
ที่อัปเดต:
The Plan:
Long Gold, if close at or above 1272
SL below today´s lows
The Why:
Speculating on double bottom here and end of larger corrective move
RSI Divergence
Positive CoT
Gold corrected for 3 month (feb - apr) in terms of time but only gave back gains of 1 month (jan), indicates corrective move and bullish bias
Gap in GDX got closed
Monthly looks like a cup and handle is forming, this could be bottom of handle
Inverted SHS on lower time frame (30 min)
FOMC bait? NFP (tomorrow) real?
Sentiment is not in the dumpster yet, but low enough that this could be the low espacially after FED massacre
The Risk:
If 1265 breaks it could get really ugly for couple of days before the bottom, that is why i use stop there
Will update targets on weekend, depending how today and tomorrow play out
Good Luck!
Long Gold, if close at or above 1272
SL below today´s lows
The Why:
Speculating on double bottom here and end of larger corrective move
RSI Divergence
Positive CoT
Gold corrected for 3 month (feb - apr) in terms of time but only gave back gains of 1 month (jan), indicates corrective move and bullish bias
Gap in GDX got closed
Monthly looks like a cup and handle is forming, this could be bottom of handle
Inverted SHS on lower time frame (30 min)
FOMC bait? NFP (tomorrow) real?
Sentiment is not in the dumpster yet, but low enough that this could be the low espacially after FED massacre
The Risk:
If 1265 breaks it could get really ugly for couple of days before the bottom, that is why i use stop there
Will update targets on weekend, depending how today and tomorrow play out
Good Luck!
บันทึกช่วยจำ
Did not get the close i was looking for, gonna try it with a buy stop at 1272,50. Lets see.บันทึกช่วยจำ
Looking very promising, still got ISM today and Fridays can be trickyDefinitely want to see follow through on Monday
For today I would like to see close above 1275,5 as further confirmation
This can be the start of something big
บันทึกช่วยจำ
So far so good. Now, this could still be fake so little caveat, next week has to follow through. Miners are lagging and have given back some gains today, Silver is strong tho and volume in miner etfs spiked as it usually does at bottoms. 1282 is very important past support and also yearly open price. Next week should close above 1293 and break the downtrend.
If this was indeed "the low", gold has the potential to rally hard and break out of the consolidation it has been in basically since the summer of 2013. This corrective would then have been very mild only marginally more than 38,2% retracement, further showing the bullish bias. The longer the consolidation the bigger the breakout. I actually would not be suprised if gold goes somewhere between 1430 and 1520 before this move tops.
The Plan continues:
I plan on adding more positions if gold moves up
Moving SL up a little to 1268
More Why:
The FED is traped indices at ATH and supposedly strong employment would suggest higher rates but on the other hand you have already signs of a weakening economy (e.g. inverted yield curve) and the whole IOER vs. Fed Funds Rate problematic suggesting trouble down the road. There are already rumors of an end to the balance sheet normalization this summer instead of September and even rate cuts.
Gold is not only ready from a technical perspective but the fundamental driver is forming as well.
It would be kinda ironical if this important low was formed yesterday given the massacre in silver at the start of may 2011.
บันทึกช่วยจำ
Looks like Gold is on its way.Miners were strong yesterday.
Likely gonna add position if gold back tests 1282.
บันทึกช่วยจำ
The rally is starting, weekly swing, downtrend broken, very high confidence the low is in. 
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