Gold slump after strong U.S. data rallies greenback

Gold prices are solidly lower and hit a two-week low in midday U.S. trading Thursday. Silver is down sharply, too. Modest overnight gains in both metals were erased after the release of upbeat U.S. economic data this morning that beat market expectations. August gold was last down $27.10 at $1,943.00 and September silver was down $0.645 at $24.325.

U.S. economic data Thursday morning fell squarely into the camp of the monetary policy hawks, suggesting at least one more interest rate hike may be necessary to further cool the U.S. economy and choke off problematic price inflation. The first estimate of second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product came in at up 2.4%, year-on-year, which beat market expectations for a rise of 2.0%. The internals of the GDP report were also solid. Meantime, U.S. durable goods order were reported up 4.7% in June versus expectations for a 1.5% gain. Also, weekly U.S. jobless claims came in lower than expected. The data sharply boosted the U.S. dollar index and pushed U.S. Treasury yields up—both of which are daily bearish elements for the precious metals markets.

XAUUSD 1950 - 1948

✅ TP1: 1955
✅ TP2: 1960

❌ SL: 1943

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Running . +30PIPS ✅✅✅

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+45PIPS ✅✅✅

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Technically, August gold futures prices scored a bearish outside day down today and hit a two-week low. Bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage. A three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,000.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $1,900.60. First resistance is seen at $1,960.00 and then at $1,975.00. First support is seen at $1,937.50 and then at $1,925.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

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HIT TP1. +60PIPS ✅✅✅

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The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index sharply higher and posting its biggest daily gain in months. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $80.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching around 3.9%.

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Top central banks continued with another round of rate hikes this week despite cooling inflation, but have now switched in unison to a more cautious posture about further moves in a sign that a year-long round of global monetary tightening could be at an end.

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The higher drift in gold prices lacks conviction as there is still indecision at play in the lead-up to the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting as chatters that it will discuss tweaking its yield curve control policy has kept market participants on their toes, said Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG.

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The U.S. dollar index and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields head near Thursday’s highs reached after data showed the U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter, potentially keeping a much-feared recession at bay and increasing the likelihood that the Fed could further hike interest rates.

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Analysts slightly lowered their gold price forecasts for this year, a Reuters poll showed.

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XAUUSD BUY ZONE 1948 - 1950

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Asian stocks were off five-month highs and the yen extended a sharp rally amid speculation the Bank of Japan will keep ultra-low interest rates on Friday, but may make minor tweaks to extend the lifespan of its yield control policy

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News Today:
- Core PCE Price Index m/m
- Employment Cost Index q/q
- Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

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The latest weekly gold survey by Kitco News shows that retail investors expect gold prices to rise in the coming week. Meanwhile, market analysts are more cautious as they await clear signals from economic indicators and technical trends.