GOLD → Traders are panicking. Growth amid low volumes

31 ม.ค.

XAUUSD has been trading in a very narrow range lately with low volatility, while the dollar index is standing still. Something very turbulent is coming.



A stalemate and confusing situation is forming on D1. On the background of retests of resistance areas and attempts to break the upper trend boundaries, trading volumes are decreasing in the market. Technically, the price is gradually pushing towards the resistance at 2039.4 to break it. After a false breakout, there is no fall and the price is testing this level again. Volumes are falling at this time. There is strong news ahead. In the mid term, traders are waiting for news that could weaken gold. But amid the initial reaction, the XAU price may test the resistances. And after stabilization of the situation, the fall (which is waiting for the market, judging by the volumes) may continue.

Resistance levels: 2039.4, 2048, 2058
Support levels: 2033, 2029, 2020

There is news ahead, which will come gradually. The strength of the news is high. Technically, gold may strengthen temporarily, but fundamentally and on the background of weak purchasing power, the price may fall in the future. Everything is determined by the actual fundamental background.

Regards R. Linda!

31 ม.ค.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Control the news situation, because the news will come gradually, which will affect the market and prices in the same way.

Today's releases are:
13:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan) Expected 145K instead of 164K
13:30 USD Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q4) - Expected 1.0% instead of 1.1%.
14:45 USD Chicago PMI (Jan) - Expected 48.0 instead of 46.9
19:00 USD FOMC Statement
19:00 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision - Expected unchanged at 5.50%
19:30 USD FOMC Press Conference

Overall, strong economic growth in the US reinforces expectations that the Fed will postpone rate cuts until later. Inflation is declining, but not well enough as expected by the Fed. Overall, the market may receive comments and data that may strengthen the USD index, but the unpredictability of the news is not canceled.

Analysts expect:
ADP NonFarm - decrease in the index
Employment Cost Index - decrease in the index
Chicago PMI - improvement
Fed Interest Rate Decision - will remain at the same level.

31 ม.ค.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan) 107K instead of 145K
Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q4) 0.9% instead of 1.0%


Gold is forming a slight bullish momentum, but buyers are taking their time. More news ahead

31 ม.ค.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Growth and retest of resistance area 2050-2060

Market is waiting for FOMC&FED speech
99% probability that the rate will remain at the same level
But Powell's comments may have a strong impact on the price

If he says they are ready to cut rates, gold will fly beyond 2050

31 ม.ค.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

DONE!
Short squeeze!
False breakdown!

1 ก.พ.

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