Keeping my Selling order / Short-term remains Bearish

17 ส.ค. 2022

Gold's general commentary: Expected Price-action fluctuation and aggressive Volatility came as no Technical surprise as are pre-Fed rate candles. I am waiting #1,773.80 - #1,776.80 test as I contemplated Selling the market from mentioned Resistance zone priced from #1,792.80 extension. Despite current configuration and from a Technical standpoint, Daily chart is showing a wide Descending Channel with detectable Lower High’s and Higher High’s, able to convert into a historical Selling sequence. I do not see Bullish Short-term trend / recovery as sustainable, unless #1,815.80 breaks (slim chances). Long-term, the developments are there to support an strong downtrend. Fundamentally, deflation of DX would be temporary and would likely produce the kind of fiscal and monetary policies to revive growth. The post-crisis environment might not be Gold friendly (as expected), like the recovery from the financial crisis. With Fed aftermath and Stimulus near the completion, I see no reason why Gold shouldn’t pierce the #1,752.80 extension.


Technical analysis: The Price-action is slowing losing value towards Daily chart's Support levels and Buyers who engaged extended Buy orders again were tricked into their false beliefs since they didn’t checked DX and Bond Yields levels (once again Gold breaks the Support / Resistance and reverses). Despite all this and from a Technical standpoint, Daily chart is showing an Price-action devaluation with detectable Lower High's, able to convert into a Rising Wedge on Hourly 4 chart. Also, Gold failed to break above the Neutral Rectangle region and was rejected (on wider margin already being around # -0.19%). With Hourly 4 chart now turning Bearish, the spot price (which is always the focus of my analysis) is close to my desired vicinity as mentioned on the two previous posts, configuration which is Trading on #1,773.80 variance. This is an Three Drives pattern and if the identical TDP pattern of February #24th - March #11th is replicated, then I can expect a #1 session upswing to upper levels (or with no breakout at all), followed by a Selling breakout below #1,764.80. Don’t set aside that crucial level is Hourly 4’s chart strong Support on #1,773.80 - it is important to monitor will the Price-action break the Moving average or reject the sequence. The correlation of Gold with Bond Yields is very strong (and inversely correlated).


My position: I have moved my Stop-loss on breakeven (#1,779.80) and practically I have risk-free Trade on my hands.