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RUMORS OF A PIVOT FINALE: 2400, 3200, 4800 and more
ที่อัปเดต:
In PART 5, I wrote that my only concern was a shift to a faster route than PART 5 (but still slower than PART 4). With the 2024 elections in the history books, I have enough now to call the entire route for the next 27 months or basically to February of 2027 to a high of 4800 (or higher). In last notes in previous post, I wrote that the 2780 high before November is short to medium term bearish BUT LONG TERM SUPER BULLISH. This is the completed draft for the move to 4800 with comments on the very long term future.
1) first, in chart above there is a dashed line
2) whether or not it breaks, there will be a second top
3) before the check down to the 45-year bold trend line
4) this will happen by the coming February at 2400-ish
5) after the retest comes the setup and move for 3200
6) this will hit BEFORE 2026 followed by another major retrace
7) this looks like 2750 now, but could easily by 2800+
8) this depends on what the second this December will look like
9) this pattern results in a 4800 high in Q1 2027
10) this also means that after the correction at 4800...
11) and by 4800, I mean 4700-5000...
12) there is ANOTHER RALLY with its ceiling at 7500-8000
1) first, in chart above there is a dashed line
2) whether or not it breaks, there will be a second top
3) before the check down to the 45-year bold trend line
4) this will happen by the coming February at 2400-ish
5) after the retest comes the setup and move for 3200
6) this will hit BEFORE 2026 followed by another major retrace
7) this looks like 2750 now, but could easily by 2800+
8) this depends on what the second this December will look like
9) this pattern results in a 4800 high in Q1 2027
10) this also means that after the correction at 4800...
11) and by 4800, I mean 4700-5000...
12) there is ANOTHER RALLY with its ceiling at 7500-8000
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13) to clarify notes above...
14) you can't call the move after 3200 until you know the second high THIS DECEMBER
15) but if you want to ball park the entire range for that check down (after 3200)
16) it would be 2700-2850, and looks like 2750 RIGHT NOW
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17) in my humbled opinion, the route above is the most CONSERVATIVE ROUTE remaining
18) meaning after the re-test of the 45-year trend line...
19) gold is unlikely to under perform the chart above
ออเดอร์ถูกยกเลิก
11/07 - 1:37 PM ET - THIS IS ALL WRONG AND HERE'S WHY:
1) total trend break down on an 8-day bar basis says 8000 must hit BEFORE 2030
2) and likely by summer of 2028
3) so to account for this, the January floor is 2600
4) and the ceiling for next September is 4000
5) so it should not be 2400-3200 (Jan/Feb - Sep/Oct)
6) it should be 2600-4000 (Jan - Sep)
7) that means the entry should be January around 2600
8) and the exit is 4000 in September next year
9) so chart at top is trash
10) that I know now
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11/08, 2024, 10:05 AM ET -- still not quite right
a) so I see 4000 next September/October
b) but THAT DOES NOT MEAN THAT JAN FLOOR IS 2600
c) because it can still do 2400/4000 (not 2400/3200, not 2600/4000)
d) this is ultimately unknowable and can only be tracked continuously
e) to sum it up there are only 2 points I can say with conviction
f) starting with a major opportunity in January 2025 (whether that be 2400 or 2600)
1) 4000 by next October 2025
2) 8000 is likely by February 2029
i) it's a shame that I cannot do continuous forecasts for next year
j) the end
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11/13/24, 2583.XX AND WATCH OUT FOR RUG PULL TO 2480
a) it's really oversold right now, so if it were to happen...
b) it would bounce first and stall 2620?... let me see
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1:31 PM ET, IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE TAKING THE FAST ROUTE TO 2480
c) this would very likely mean the fast route to 2430 or even 2415
d) so basically... instead of chart above
e) it looks like this right now:
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f) so in chart above, I see 2415 before 12/10
g) and sideways to down until June, maybe even July
h) both sides of the binary (yellow/black) now have the rrally in Q3 and Q4
i) so I'll see you in May 2025 at 2400
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j) for what it's worth:
1) it should go down more (like 2550) before it bounces to 2615-ish
2) with that bounce, price will aim UNDER 2400 BY DECEMBER 15TH
3) my call is 2389 on 12/12
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4) the "setup" for the next rally will consume the next 6 months
5) so that leaves us in late May of 2025 at around 2450
6) price will then spend the next 8 months moving to 3500-4000
7) this double top should be December 2025 and February 2026
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11/13, 4:30 PM ET, 2575.30: 2525 before strong bounce
8) notes above said 2550
9) it should be 2525 before the bounce
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8) continuing in chart above, this is obviously different vs chart at top
9) so be aware, I am simply not publishing a new chart bc of detailing
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11/15, 12:32 PM ET, 2562.XX, I SOLVED IT AND ABOUT F-ING TIME!
a) I know the overall route for next 15 months
b) that is specifically from now to Valentine's Day of 2026
c) there are 3 things worth talking about
d) they are:
1) the shape/timing of 2400 correction
2) the move to 2835
3) the move to 3650
e) that's all that is really knowable
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19) continuing in chart above, that's my best stuff right now
20) get ready, we go long LAST WEEK OF JANUARY
21) that means:
a) gold, via calls through futures
b) silver
c) silver majors like PAAS (needs a credit analyst's confirmation)
d) meaning that you want the silver majors with the best looking books
e) frankly, just read RICK RULE'S INTERVIEWS ON SILVER MAJORS
f) WITH THE CAVEAT THAT THE INFORMATION IS RECENT
g) and split the money into 3 or more majors
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11/19, 3:15 PM, 3-hour bar detail with incoming NFP and FOMC dates vs trend map expectations is in chart above.
1) what this seem to say is 2750 IS A KEY LEVEL APPROACHING EACH NFP FRIDAYS
2) DECEMBER & JANUARY LOWS SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE FOMC DATES
3) from here to 12/06, there should be
a) a double bottom before bold blue line breaks
b) after checking the bold blue down trend, price will head for 2750
c) this is will get sold before 12/18 FOMC
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4) I will update next on TUESDAY, DECEMBER 10บันทึก
11/21/24, 12:12 PM ET (NEW YORK TIME) -- I have the route from here to end of January.
a) to nail the late January entry 2450-ish
b) this would be a 5-month trade
c) end of January to end of June, specifially 01/28 to 06/25
d) roughly 150 days beginning to end
e) expected range is 2450-3700
f) that means there is A 50% MOVE IN THIS WINDOW
g) I am going to start a new group for this move
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11/21, 2:10 PM ET, I will provide daily service for this group.
a) I will post directions and details for this group soon
b) to be clear, this is not "around the clock" for day-trading
c) this service is for twice per day updates for this move
d) running now to 6/30/2025
e) the obvious trade is long with maximum leverage (on a 6-month basis)
f) starting end of January ending in late June
g) via gold futures, silver, or silver majors
h) the return is approximately 20X to 25X with at the money calls for GC contracts
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8:02 PM ET, SO IN CHART ABOVE:
1) not much has changed
2) and I am rolling out new group soon
3) again, we go long late January (maybe very early Febgruary, like 2nd or 3rd)
4) and exit late June
5) the trade a strong 10X IF WE HAVE TO WATCH DOWNSIDE RISKS
6) BUT A SPECULATIVE 30X TO 60X
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8:03 PM ET, furthermore...
1) the JUNE top looks like 3750 to me
2) the final top should be SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER
3) this final top (for this current rally) I think is 4400-4500
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18) continuing in chart above:
19) what is the big difference between black and blue?
20) basically, 2-way vol and that seems to be the the only thing
21) here's with black taken out:
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12/02, 2:48 PM ET, for people that care
1) that page is the first link below
2) under Binary Forecasting Service tag
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12/04, 8:41 AM ET, fixed that link.
1) it was previously expired
2) the updated one does not expire
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12/11/24 -- 6:20 PM ET -- IF YOU ARE USING CHART ABOVE, STOP!
a) for people not in the group with me...
b) if you play chart at top, it looks like it may be following that pattern
c) I've already called for 2830 on Monday with a 2530 check down floor in late January
d) so if you are using chart at top, PLEASE STOP
e) the end
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