Gold still without a major move

25 ต.ค. 2022

Gold's general commentary: Gold is currently being rejected just above the Lower High’s Lower zone trendline of the Daily chart’s Descending Channel that started with the October #10 High’s. Within that Channel, Price-action always tested the Support zone after strong local Top rejection, so assuming no further Fundamental news breakout (and DX doesn't make a new Low or Bond Yields (near #5-Month High’s) continue the rejection towards new Support break, I don't see why this Daily chart’s fractal won't get repeated. #1,622.80 - #1,627.80 would be a fair estimate. If however #1,662.80 breaks, that would be a Bull breakout call towards the #1,672.80 (small chances for that configuration to develop subsequently). Gold is having Bearish sentiment since Fed minutes (hawkish), where DX still found the Support and engaged the recovery. Regardless, I am expecting #1,600.80 extension on the Medium-term run, and market closing below #1,642.80 confirms once again the Selling bias. Even though Buying is strongly limited, I will await #1,642.80 Support break to make my move.


Technical analysis: Since #1,662.80 held as a Resistance, Gold Naturally found more Short-term Sellers and Selling pressure Gold is under is a product of it. Price-action formed Double Top formation nicely and is now comfortably Trading near #1,642.80 - #1,645.80 Support zone. Hourly 4 chart should turn Overbought near #1,658.80 - #1,662.80 (consult #2019. Year fractal, late June to mid July (consolidation within #1,440.80 - #1,380.80) then pricing the major move on the aftermath. Since Gold priced in a Top here (temporary or not) still Price-action may remain indecisive. On the other hand, correlation works great at the moment as Gold is closely following Bearish Gap fill than Intra-day correction on DX. Being able to spot a new movement or sudden change of trend before it occurs is an important skill to have as an Investor. Adverse earnings and catastrophic events can be difficult to predict, but knowing how to handle it when they do occur is invaluable. The overall economy, especially metals such as Gold can throw signals from different angles without warning, so being able to interpret their underlying messages may preserve portfolio value (of course, such knowledge comes with experience). Technical indicators are plentiful, so understanding which ones can support your directional predictions may equip you for a potential movement and foresee Gold's Short and Medium-trend. While it’s impossible to consistently predict when a movement might occur, it is Highly important to have a thorough understanding of how to read certain events if and when they transpire, allowing you to better protect your Trading account, and that's why I always mention Risk management and give huge importance to that part.


My position: Even though Gold's bias remains Bearish, don't be surprised if you see thin Volume throughout today's session. I am still rest assured that current Intra-day side Swings may not offer what I expect and best option at the moment is to remain on sidelines. However, keep #1,642.80 as an important Support level.