Money Supply and Recessions

30 ก.ย. 2023

Money supply or credit creation always peaks prior to a Recession.
Please see charts for information

30 ก.ย. 2023

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Our current situation shows money supply has peaked at March 2022

30 ก.ย. 2023

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Close up of GFC

30 ก.ย. 2023

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Close up of Dot Com

31 มี.ค.

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12 เม.ย.

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19 ก.ค.

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I believe the American presidential elections in Now 2024 are a major reason for the coming Recession to be stalled and pushed forward in time.

As we can see from the previous charts Credit creation always starts to increase prior to the event to soften the economic blow.
Also if you check my other idea on interest rates, interest rates start to drop prior to a recession and atm 60% of Federal reserve Governors say Sept 2024 will see a decrease in interest rates possibly -0.25% basis points. So I believe we will see a recession some time in 2025.