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🟩PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN VISITS VIETNAM, MARKET FALLS SHARPLY IN THE FIRST SESSION OF THE WEEK, FOREIGNERS SELL STRONGLY THOUSANDS OF BILLIONS

🟩POSTED ON SEPTEMBER 11, 2023

🟩The market poured cold water on the first session of the week despite the fact that history often sided with the bulls in the times when the US Presidents visited Vietnam. After today’s session, many investors may think of the pattern “Two Peaks”

🟩THE FOCUS OF THE US PRESIDENT’S VISIT

🟩President Joe Biden began his visit to Vietnam from September 10 to September 11. A special note in this trip is that the two countries have upgraded their diplomatic relations, from “Comprehensive Partnership” established in 2013, to “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” which is the highest level in Vietnam’s diplomatic relations classification. Thus, the two countries have skipped the step of “Strategic Partnership”.

🟩Currently, only 4 countries have a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” relationship with Vietnam: China (2008), Russia (2012), India (2016) and South Korea (2022). The US is the fifth country that Vietnam establishes the highest diplomatic relationship.

🟩This opens up opportunities for cooperation between Vietnam and the US in some sectors such as: Chip and semiconductor manufacturing, aviation, technology, transportation and tourism, infrastructure-logistics-heavy industry, environment and seafood.

🟩A few agreements have been signed such as: Boeing and Vietnam Airline signed an agreement to buy 50 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft. Ambor Technology will start construction of a semiconductor factory in Bac Ninh in October 2023 worth 1.6 billion dollars. NVIDIA cooperates with FPT, Viettel and Vingroup in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) applied to automotive and health care sectors.

🟩Vinfast has just listed in the US in mid-August and will be supported to boost the construction of a $4 billion electric car factory in North Carolina.

🟩This cooperation is expected to have a positive long-term impact on many sectors: Vingroup family, industrial real estate, technology (FPT, CTR), seaport group and export companies of goods such as construction materials (VSC, PTB), seafood (VHC…)

🟩In the short term, historical statistics show that the Vietnamese stock market often performs quite positively. Data from Yuanta Securities shows that 1-2 weeks after the US Presidents visited Vietnam, VN-Index usually increased strongly as in the case of 2006 (G.W.Bush), 2016 (Obama).

🟩EXCHANGE RATE, ETF REVIEW AND DERIVATIVES EXPIRY THIS WEEK.

🟩In the context of Vietnam falling into an information gap. International macro data will be of interest to domestic investors, as it may affect interest rates and exchange rates in Vietnam

🟩Pay attention to the US data on inflation and retail sales announced in mid-week. Specifically, CPI data for August will be announced on Wednesday (US time). CPI for August is forecast to increase 3.6% yoy, while Core CPI is forecast to increase 4.3% yoy. Retail sales data will be announced on Thursday (US time).

🟩These data will affect the expectation of a 0.25% interest rate hike on November 1, which is currently at a probability of 43%. Meanwhile, the market mostly believes that the FED will keep interest rates unchanged at the meeting on September 20.

🟩Last week, the central exchange rate of USD/VND was raised by SBV by another 34 dong, to 23,993. On Monday, the central exchange rate surpassed the 24,000 mark. Foreigners pushed up net selling more than 1,000 billion in today’s session. Foreign investors seem to be less concerned about the exchange rate issue.

🟩According to SSI Research’s view, the depreciation of VND is mainly due to seasonal factors. They maintain the view that SBV continues to loosen monetary policy, and diverge with central banks around the globe.

🟩The depreciation of VND mainly comes from international pressures when the USD Index set a new high of 105 points.

🟩MBS Securities forecasts that the USD/VND exchange rate may touch 24,500 by the end of the year.

🟩In general, exchange rate is still a risk variable that investors should observe in the context that both CNY and VND are depreciating record levels against the dollar. However, the current depreciation is still within control" and domestic investors are regaining confidence after production data such as PMI for August improved. The VanEck Vector Vietnam ETF fund announced its Q3 review results on September 9, 2023 and changed its effectiveness from September 18, 2023. HSC Securities forecasts two scenarios: (1) adding 8 million CEo shares and not removing any shares or (2) keeping the portfolio unchanged. Therefore, we believe that the review results have little impact on the market.

🟩This week is also the week of derivatives expiry. The recent times have caused little volatility for the market and we believe that there is unlikely to be any major volatility.

🟩STOCK MARKET TODAY

🟩There was not much movement in the morning session, but sellers poured out to sell heavily at the beginning of the afternoon session. The indices fell after a strong rally before and after September 2nd holiday. The market is testing the old peak of August and it is normal to encounter profit-taking reactions at this point. The VN-Index fell -1.44%, VN30 fell -1.49% and HNX-Index fell 1.9%. In general, sellers almost controlled the game when today’s closing price was close to the lowest level of the day, and the number of stocks falling was five times higher than the number of stocks rising on HOSE.

🟩A few rare bright spots such as PVT +5%, OCB +2.8% and MSR +9.8%…

🟩On Friday last week, seaport and container transport stocks rose sharply. Today money flow is looking for PVT.

🟩PVT stock is about to approach the ex-dividend date (14/09) to pay cash dividend of 300 dong/share. PVT stock price bounced up more than 5% and set a new 52-week high. The increase in world crude oil prices, amid EU importing more and more LNG and crude oil, keeps pushing up crude oil transportation prices.

🟩As of July, 🔮PVT has received 8 more ships, including 4 ships in the form of BBHP to reduce financial burden and 4 ships in the form of Bareboat. With a fleet of 47 ships, the total tonnage reached 1.3 million DWT.

The market downturn has narrowed the rise of 🔮OCB stock. At the beginning of the session, OCB stock rose more than 4% by a gap up with high liquidity. The stock is in Elibook's portfolio and has a good price increase.

🟩HOW DO TRADERS ACT? - FOLLOW THE BUY SIGNALS AT 🔮VSC, 🔮PC1