VET/USD High odds reversion to the mean, LONG, BULLISH

7 ธ.ค. 2020

There is a high probability 'reversion to the mean' trade in play (Pitchfork median line). The ideal entry was the 0.618 retracement however there is still a 1:1 Risk: Reward trade from here. Usually I prefer a 1:3 R:R however this trade has an 80% probability of playing out. Therefore it is worthy of consideration. Looking at the bigger picture, VET appears to be in a wave 3 with the target for this wave being +157%. I see massive long term growth potential in this project. As a result of my conviction, I will be cautious of taking too much off the table at these targets. I believe VET is a long term hold.

What kind of trade is this?

• High time frame swing trade
  
• Low time frame reversion to the mean.
  
• Long term hold.
  
  Looking at the Macro environment, what is the trend?LONG. Bullish .
• Pending US Election results may still cause short term volatility . Long term elections have little impact on the market
  
• DJI & NDAQ recently made new ATH's. Trending higher but monitor this closely
  
• Gold & Silver has been on a beautiful run but now correcting. Looking for continuation at key levels
  
• Vaccine with 90% success has been found for Covid19
  
• More stimulus expected soon
  
• Sector leaders Bitcoin and Ethereum been trading in a positive direction with higher highs and higher lows since the bottom in March of this year.
  
  What are the key points to be taken from the VET Macro Technical analysis?
• Broke through long term resistance in Jun & re-tested the Support through Oct- Nov
  
• Potential to form a Massive cup & handle Pattern
  
• Order block has been tested
  
• Golden pocket has been tested
  
• Long term resistance has broken and turned into Support
  
• This recent test is a higher low
  
• Appears to be in wave 3 of an Elliott wave count.
  
  What are the key levels For VET?Reversion to the mean
• This trade has an 80% potential for a 25-35 % profit. The longer it takes to play out the higher the potential profit.
  
• If this trade takes 3 weeks to play out the target will be in in confluence with the cup and handle formation target at 0.02325
  
• Entry: anywhere here (~.017)
  
• Target (median line of pitchfork) currently at 0.021619.
  
• Stop: 0.01185
  
• R:R 1:1
  Elliott wave 3rd wave & Cup & handle
• The target for the 3rd wave is in confluence with the target for the cup and handle and has a potential for 157% profit.
  
• Entry: anywhere here (~.017)
  
• Target: 0.0439
  
• Stop: 0.01185
  
• R:R 1:5
  The following are assuming the 3rd wave ends in the high probability zone
  
• 4th wave entry: 0.0305
  
• 5th wave target: 0.0522
  
  Are there any news catalysts?
  Yes. Bullish.
  Too many to list. VET is an absolute beast and is severely undervalued IMO.
  
• National level partnerships with the Chinese Gov.
  
• Over 100 partnerships with fortune 500 companies
  I am unaware of any other project in this sector with as many high level partnerships as VET. (If you know of one please let me know in the comments below)
  
  Considering the points mentioned above has allowed me to set a LONG ONLY bias. This means until circumstances and the trend change, I will ONLY be looking for entries to trade VET LONG.
  (The trend is your friend)
  
  What is my trading plan moving forward?
• Look for LONG entries on the lower time frames for short & medium term swing trades
  
• Wait for larger pullbacks and retests on high timeframes to build larger LONG positions with the intentions of holding for much higher targets.
  
• Continue with this strategy until a 'reason2sell' is present, for this trade that will be; Break of the 0.618 of the most recent swing or my targets are met.
  Note; I hold core positions in VET with no stops. I see those positions as long term investments and this forms part of my long term strategy. I would need to see significant change in the Fundamentals to alter this strategy.
  

Cup & handle, Golden zone, S/R flip, Order block, MACD crossing bullish:


Never Trust. Verify.
D.Y.O.R. Not Financial Advice, this is my trading journal.
Always remember: Technical Analysis is not about being right, it's about increasing your odds.
Be prepared to be wrong. Risk management is key. Capital preservation above all else.

9 ธ.ค. 2020

บันทึกช่วยจำ

This channel is looking good for now.

3 ม.ค. 2021

บันทึกช่วยจำ

High probability "Reversion to the mean" pitchfork trade target has been hit. Next target is the 1.618 - 1.75 zone for wave 3

15 มี.ค. 2021

ปิดการเทรด: ถึงเป้าหมายการทำกำไร

Blew through all targets! looks like the log chart might be in play...