The initial phase of the artificial intelligence (AI) rebound was driven by narrative and momentum; merely being associated with AI was enough to push up valuations. Now, we are entering a more mature phase where investors will demand tangible results and will penalize specific strategic missteps or unmitigated risks.
Although the AI theme remains dominant, news from specific companies is now triggering significant and differentiated reactions. For example, Apple is adjusting its entire AR/VR strategy due to product-specific difficulties, while Meta is grappling with an existential regulatory battle unrelated to its AI development. This differentiation means the market is beginning to distinguish between "AI beneficiaries" and "AI players who need to prove themselves."
Simply being among the "Magnificent Seven" is no longer enough; companies must now demonstrate their ability to navigate their unique challenges—be they competitive, regulatory, or operational.
Therefore, the next phase of the Nasdaq 100's performance will depend on how these individual giants execute their specific strategies, making company-level analysis more critical than ever.
NVIDIA's AI Empire: Solidifying the Moat or Building a House of Cards?
Nvidia recently announced a strategic cooperation intent, planning to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI. This investment is closely linked to the deployment of at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems, aimed at supporting OpenAI's next-generation AI infrastructure, with the first phase using its Vera Rubin platform by 2026. This is not just an investment; it's a self-reinforcing business cycle. Nvidia provides funding to OpenAI, and OpenAI then uses these funds to purchase Nvidia's core products (GPUs, networking systems), thereby effectively securing a large and long-term order channel, injecting strong momentum into both parties' revenue growth.
However, this arrangement has also drawn critical perspectives, arguing that it constitutes "The Infinite Money Glitch." Analysts have compared it to Cisco Systems' practices during the dot-com bubble, when Cisco provided funding to telecom companies to purchase its routers, a strategy that amplified the subsequent market collapse.
The risk is that Nvidia may be artificially inflating its own demand, which would make it very vulnerable if the AI capital expenditure boom slows down or OpenAI's business model encounters problems.
This investment can also be seen as a defensive move, aimed at preventing OpenAI from developing its own custom chips or deepening its cooperation with competitors like Broadcom, with whom OpenAI has already signed a $10 billion order.
Apple's Pragmatic Shift: From Vision to Sight
Recent reports confirm that Apple is pausing its planned overhaul of the Vision Pro headset to reallocate resources and accelerate the development of AI-powered smart glasses. The logic behind this strategic shift is that the Vision Pro, launched in February 2024, has struggled to maintain sales momentum due to its high price of $3,499, physical weight, and limited content ecosystem, leading to waning consumer interest.
This shift is a pragmatic admission by Apple that the path to the mass market lies in a different product form factor. According to the new roadmap, Apple is reportedly developing at least two models: a simpler display-less version (N50) that connects to the iPhone, and a more advanced version with an integrated display that directly competes with Meta's products. The development timeline is being accelerated, with a possible release as early as next year.
This strategic shift is less about abandoning spatial computing and more about finding a viable mass-market vehicle to counter its "AI laggard" label and establish a new, Apple-controlled AI platform.
Despite the launch of "Apple Intelligence," Apple is still widely considered to be playing catch-up in the generative AI field compared to Google and OpenAI.
Meta's Ambitious: Software to hardware while defending the core.
In this race, Meta is clearly in the lead. It has collaborated with Ray-Ban to launch multiple generations of smart glasses, and has introduced the $800 Ray-Ban Display, its first consumer model with a built-in screen. They are setting the pace, forcing Apple to react. However, at the same time, Meta's core advertising business is facing unprecedented and escalating legal attacks in the EU. This includes a €550 million lawsuit filed by over 80 Spanish media organizations, accusing it of unfair competition; similar lawsuits exist in France; and its "consent or pay" model faces fundamental challenges under GDPR and the Digital Services Act (DSA).
Meta's aggressive push in smart glasses and the metaverse is not just a pursuit of new growth, but a strategic necessity driven by the existential threat to its underlying advertising business model. Meta's primary revenue and profit engine – personalized advertising based on user data – is facing fundamental, systemic challenges in one of its largest markets (the EU). This regulatory pressure creates a powerful incentive for it to develop new platforms (such as smart glasses operating systems) where Meta can control the ecosystem, set data collection rules, and build new, diversified revenue streams (e.g., hardware sales, AR app stores).
Therefore, succeeding in this new hardware race is not only an offensive growth strategy, but also a crucial defensive move to reduce the company's reliance on a business model that is increasingly untenable from a regulatory perspective.
Microsoft's Quiet Restructuring for the Future of its AI Center
Microsoft has undergone a major internal reorganization to strengthen its focus on AI. This includes the appointment of Judson Althoff as CEO of the commercial business, a move explicitly aimed at allowing CEO Satya Nadella to focus on high-level technical work in AI, data center architecture, and product innovation. Meanwhile, the company has for the first time since 2018 unified its Windows engineering division under one leader, Pavan Davuluri. The clear goal is to accelerate the realization of Windows as an "Agentic OS" – an AI-driven operating system that can proactively perform tasks for users.
Microsoft's strategy is fundamentally different from Apple's and Meta's. Instead of chasing new consumer hardware categories, Microsoft is doubling down on its existing enterprise and operating system strongholds, deeply integrating AI into the fabric of its core products to increase user engagement and drive consumption within its ecosystem. Recent news from Microsoft is not about novel gadgets, but about organizational structure and a long-term operating system vision. The changes in commercial leadership are to optimize the sales process for AI-enhanced enterprise services (such as Azure AI and Microsoft 365 Copilot). The changes in Windows are to redefine the core PC experience in the age of AI.
This is a lower-risk, more defensive strategy. They are not trying to create a new market from scratch, but rather are using AI to fortify their existing multi-trillion-dollar enterprise and consumer software moats. The measure of Microsoft's success will not be hardware sales units, but rather Azure consumption growth, Copilot subscription numbers, and increased enterprise license value.
USTEC reached the 100% Fibonacci Extension at around 24955 before retracing. The index awaits a potential breakout from the range of 24800-24955.
If USTEC breaks above 24955, the index may test the 161% Fibonacci Extension at around 25265.
Conversely, returning below 24700-24800 may lead to a retest of EMA21 and the channel’s lower bound.
Combining the above analysis, the performance of the Nasdaq 100 index will be the ultimate resultant force of these competing powers. This ecosystem is interconnected: Nvidia's ability to execute its large-scale infrastructure construction is the foundation for the AI ambitions of companies like Microsoft and Meta. The success of Apple's and Meta's hardware battle will define the next major consumer computing platform and create new ecosystems. Microsoft's solid position in the enterprise sector provides a stabilizing force, while Meta's regulatory battles in Europe remain the most significant idiosyncratic risk facing a major component of the index.
This is not a prediction, but a guide to what matters most in the coming quarters:
For Nvidia: Track gross margins for its Blackwell and upcoming Vera Rubin platforms and any comments on pricing power. Watch for any official regulatory investigations initiated by the US or EU regarding its partnership with OpenAI and its ecosystem impact.
For Apple and Meta: Sales data in the first 6-12 months after the launch of any new smart glasses, and more importantly, user engagement metrics will be crucial. The quality and capability of Apple's revamped Siri (Project Linwood) upon full release will be a key leading indicator of its AI competitiveness.
For Meta (EU): Rulings in media lawsuits in Spain and France will be key (the trial in Spain is scheduled for October 2025). Any decision invalidating the "consent or pay" model would force a fundamental restructuring of its European operations and could have significant financial implications.
For the Macro Environment: Monthly non-farm payroll reports are key data points. A sustained trend below expectation would significantly increase the probability of a recession and could outweigh the positive sentiment from potential interest rate cuts, shifting market focus from valuation support to fundamental earnings risk.
By Eric Chia, Financial Market Strategist at Exness
Although the AI theme remains dominant, news from specific companies is now triggering significant and differentiated reactions. For example, Apple is adjusting its entire AR/VR strategy due to product-specific difficulties, while Meta is grappling with an existential regulatory battle unrelated to its AI development. This differentiation means the market is beginning to distinguish between "AI beneficiaries" and "AI players who need to prove themselves."
Simply being among the "Magnificent Seven" is no longer enough; companies must now demonstrate their ability to navigate their unique challenges—be they competitive, regulatory, or operational.
Therefore, the next phase of the Nasdaq 100's performance will depend on how these individual giants execute their specific strategies, making company-level analysis more critical than ever.
NVIDIA's AI Empire: Solidifying the Moat or Building a House of Cards?
Nvidia recently announced a strategic cooperation intent, planning to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI. This investment is closely linked to the deployment of at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems, aimed at supporting OpenAI's next-generation AI infrastructure, with the first phase using its Vera Rubin platform by 2026. This is not just an investment; it's a self-reinforcing business cycle. Nvidia provides funding to OpenAI, and OpenAI then uses these funds to purchase Nvidia's core products (GPUs, networking systems), thereby effectively securing a large and long-term order channel, injecting strong momentum into both parties' revenue growth.
However, this arrangement has also drawn critical perspectives, arguing that it constitutes "The Infinite Money Glitch." Analysts have compared it to Cisco Systems' practices during the dot-com bubble, when Cisco provided funding to telecom companies to purchase its routers, a strategy that amplified the subsequent market collapse.
The risk is that Nvidia may be artificially inflating its own demand, which would make it very vulnerable if the AI capital expenditure boom slows down or OpenAI's business model encounters problems.
This investment can also be seen as a defensive move, aimed at preventing OpenAI from developing its own custom chips or deepening its cooperation with competitors like Broadcom, with whom OpenAI has already signed a $10 billion order.
Apple's Pragmatic Shift: From Vision to Sight
Recent reports confirm that Apple is pausing its planned overhaul of the Vision Pro headset to reallocate resources and accelerate the development of AI-powered smart glasses. The logic behind this strategic shift is that the Vision Pro, launched in February 2024, has struggled to maintain sales momentum due to its high price of $3,499, physical weight, and limited content ecosystem, leading to waning consumer interest.
This shift is a pragmatic admission by Apple that the path to the mass market lies in a different product form factor. According to the new roadmap, Apple is reportedly developing at least two models: a simpler display-less version (N50) that connects to the iPhone, and a more advanced version with an integrated display that directly competes with Meta's products. The development timeline is being accelerated, with a possible release as early as next year.
This strategic shift is less about abandoning spatial computing and more about finding a viable mass-market vehicle to counter its "AI laggard" label and establish a new, Apple-controlled AI platform.
Despite the launch of "Apple Intelligence," Apple is still widely considered to be playing catch-up in the generative AI field compared to Google and OpenAI.
Meta's Ambitious: Software to hardware while defending the core.
In this race, Meta is clearly in the lead. It has collaborated with Ray-Ban to launch multiple generations of smart glasses, and has introduced the $800 Ray-Ban Display, its first consumer model with a built-in screen. They are setting the pace, forcing Apple to react. However, at the same time, Meta's core advertising business is facing unprecedented and escalating legal attacks in the EU. This includes a €550 million lawsuit filed by over 80 Spanish media organizations, accusing it of unfair competition; similar lawsuits exist in France; and its "consent or pay" model faces fundamental challenges under GDPR and the Digital Services Act (DSA).
Meta's aggressive push in smart glasses and the metaverse is not just a pursuit of new growth, but a strategic necessity driven by the existential threat to its underlying advertising business model. Meta's primary revenue and profit engine – personalized advertising based on user data – is facing fundamental, systemic challenges in one of its largest markets (the EU). This regulatory pressure creates a powerful incentive for it to develop new platforms (such as smart glasses operating systems) where Meta can control the ecosystem, set data collection rules, and build new, diversified revenue streams (e.g., hardware sales, AR app stores).
Therefore, succeeding in this new hardware race is not only an offensive growth strategy, but also a crucial defensive move to reduce the company's reliance on a business model that is increasingly untenable from a regulatory perspective.
Microsoft's Quiet Restructuring for the Future of its AI Center
Microsoft has undergone a major internal reorganization to strengthen its focus on AI. This includes the appointment of Judson Althoff as CEO of the commercial business, a move explicitly aimed at allowing CEO Satya Nadella to focus on high-level technical work in AI, data center architecture, and product innovation. Meanwhile, the company has for the first time since 2018 unified its Windows engineering division under one leader, Pavan Davuluri. The clear goal is to accelerate the realization of Windows as an "Agentic OS" – an AI-driven operating system that can proactively perform tasks for users.
Microsoft's strategy is fundamentally different from Apple's and Meta's. Instead of chasing new consumer hardware categories, Microsoft is doubling down on its existing enterprise and operating system strongholds, deeply integrating AI into the fabric of its core products to increase user engagement and drive consumption within its ecosystem. Recent news from Microsoft is not about novel gadgets, but about organizational structure and a long-term operating system vision. The changes in commercial leadership are to optimize the sales process for AI-enhanced enterprise services (such as Azure AI and Microsoft 365 Copilot). The changes in Windows are to redefine the core PC experience in the age of AI.
This is a lower-risk, more defensive strategy. They are not trying to create a new market from scratch, but rather are using AI to fortify their existing multi-trillion-dollar enterprise and consumer software moats. The measure of Microsoft's success will not be hardware sales units, but rather Azure consumption growth, Copilot subscription numbers, and increased enterprise license value.
USTEC reached the 100% Fibonacci Extension at around 24955 before retracing. The index awaits a potential breakout from the range of 24800-24955.
If USTEC breaks above 24955, the index may test the 161% Fibonacci Extension at around 25265.
Conversely, returning below 24700-24800 may lead to a retest of EMA21 and the channel’s lower bound.
Combining the above analysis, the performance of the Nasdaq 100 index will be the ultimate resultant force of these competing powers. This ecosystem is interconnected: Nvidia's ability to execute its large-scale infrastructure construction is the foundation for the AI ambitions of companies like Microsoft and Meta. The success of Apple's and Meta's hardware battle will define the next major consumer computing platform and create new ecosystems. Microsoft's solid position in the enterprise sector provides a stabilizing force, while Meta's regulatory battles in Europe remain the most significant idiosyncratic risk facing a major component of the index.
This is not a prediction, but a guide to what matters most in the coming quarters:
For Nvidia: Track gross margins for its Blackwell and upcoming Vera Rubin platforms and any comments on pricing power. Watch for any official regulatory investigations initiated by the US or EU regarding its partnership with OpenAI and its ecosystem impact.
For Apple and Meta: Sales data in the first 6-12 months after the launch of any new smart glasses, and more importantly, user engagement metrics will be crucial. The quality and capability of Apple's revamped Siri (Project Linwood) upon full release will be a key leading indicator of its AI competitiveness.
For Meta (EU): Rulings in media lawsuits in Spain and France will be key (the trial in Spain is scheduled for October 2025). Any decision invalidating the "consent or pay" model would force a fundamental restructuring of its European operations and could have significant financial implications.
For the Macro Environment: Monthly non-farm payroll reports are key data points. A sustained trend below expectation would significantly increase the probability of a recession and could outweigh the positive sentiment from potential interest rate cuts, shifting market focus from valuation support to fundamental earnings risk.
By Eric Chia, Financial Market Strategist at Exness
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมที่ ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมที่ ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน