Bearish Storm Incoming: Will USOIL Collapse to $67?
Key Observations
Current Strong High & Invalidation Point (70.34):
Marked as Wave 0 and serves as the critical level for invalidating any bearish outlook. If this level is breached, it may signal the continuation of the bullish trend.
Primary Distribution Structure:
The chart is showcasing Wyckoff Distribution with the following features:
Preliminary Supply (PSY): Initial reaction around 69.19 indicates buyers were overwhelmed.
Buying Climax (BC): A peak at the liquidity level (approx. 70.34), marking the point of institutional distribution.
Automatic Reaction (AR): Subsequent pullback leading to the initial range.
Liquidity Traps:
Inducement: Highlighted above the fake breakout line around 69.35, trapping retail traders who anticipated a breakout higher.
Liquidity Pool: Formation of equal lows near 68.00 suggests stops are building, acting as a magnet for price.
Supply Zones and Key Areas:
Bearish Order Block (OB): Around 69.35, which aligns with the Point of Control (POC) on the Volume Profile. This zone may act as a resistance for price action.
Support Line - AR Distribution: Near 68.88, which aligns with the low-volume node on the profile, indicating minimal institutional activity in this zone.
Projected Elliott Wave Count:
Current count suggests we are heading into Wave 5 of the bearish cycle.
Wave 3: Shows impulsive price action, which broke through liquidity.
Wave 4: Retracement has hit resistance within the supply zone.
Wave 5 Targets: Potential targets are around 67.42-66.91, which aligns with historical liquidity levels.
Creek Formation:
The Creek Line indicates minimal resistance in the current path, where a low-resistance liquidity run (LRLR) may accelerate momentum to the downside.
Volume Profile Insight:
The Point of Control (POC) resides at 69.22, suggesting that most transactions have occurred here. This level aligns with the AR zone, which could act as a decisive battleground.
Potential Scenarios
Bearish Scenario (Primary):
Price fails to sustain above the Bearish OB (69.35) and breaks below the AR line at 68.88.
Wave 5 completes at the liquidity pool levels between 67.42-66.91.
Bullish Scenario (Alternate):
A sharp breakout above the invalid point (70.34) confirms the strength of the buyers and invalidates Wave 5 projections. This would signal a transition from distribution to an accumulation phase.
Current Strong High & Invalidation Point (70.34):
Marked as Wave 0 and serves as the critical level for invalidating any bearish outlook. If this level is breached, it may signal the continuation of the bullish trend.
Primary Distribution Structure:
The chart is showcasing Wyckoff Distribution with the following features:
Preliminary Supply (PSY): Initial reaction around 69.19 indicates buyers were overwhelmed.
Buying Climax (BC): A peak at the liquidity level (approx. 70.34), marking the point of institutional distribution.
Automatic Reaction (AR): Subsequent pullback leading to the initial range.
Liquidity Traps:
Inducement: Highlighted above the fake breakout line around 69.35, trapping retail traders who anticipated a breakout higher.
Liquidity Pool: Formation of equal lows near 68.00 suggests stops are building, acting as a magnet for price.
Supply Zones and Key Areas:
Bearish Order Block (OB): Around 69.35, which aligns with the Point of Control (POC) on the Volume Profile. This zone may act as a resistance for price action.
Support Line - AR Distribution: Near 68.88, which aligns with the low-volume node on the profile, indicating minimal institutional activity in this zone.
Projected Elliott Wave Count:
Current count suggests we are heading into Wave 5 of the bearish cycle.
Wave 3: Shows impulsive price action, which broke through liquidity.
Wave 4: Retracement has hit resistance within the supply zone.
Wave 5 Targets: Potential targets are around 67.42-66.91, which aligns with historical liquidity levels.
Creek Formation:
The Creek Line indicates minimal resistance in the current path, where a low-resistance liquidity run (LRLR) may accelerate momentum to the downside.
Volume Profile Insight:
The Point of Control (POC) resides at 69.22, suggesting that most transactions have occurred here. This level aligns with the AR zone, which could act as a decisive battleground.
Potential Scenarios
Bearish Scenario (Primary):
Price fails to sustain above the Bearish OB (69.35) and breaks below the AR line at 68.88.
Wave 5 completes at the liquidity pool levels between 67.42-66.91.
Bullish Scenario (Alternate):
A sharp breakout above the invalid point (70.34) confirms the strength of the buyers and invalidates Wave 5 projections. This would signal a transition from distribution to an accumulation phase.
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ปิดการเทรด: ถึงเป้าหมายการทำกำไร
Do you see the current USOIL setup as a valid Wyckoff Distribution? Where do you think Wave 5 might terminate?บันทึก
บันทึก
🚨 Monday Trading Plan Update: "Patience is Key" 🚨
📅 Objective: Gain clarity by observing Monday's price action and the daily close.
🌟 Plan Breakdown
🛑 Sit-Out Mode (Main Strategy)
Mondays often bring choppy, unclear moves. By waiting for the daily close, we can spot:
Where key levels are forming.
How price reacts to these levels.
When to position for high-probability setups.
🎯 Scalp Option (For the Brave)
If you must trade, stick to small, low-risk scalps. Use high-confluence setups and tight risk management.
🔍 Why This Approach?
💡 "Not trading is also trading."
Avoid unnecessary losses from impatience.
Prepare for higher-quality setups later in the week.
Start the week with a clear and disciplined mindset.
📊 What to Observe Today:
Key levels and reactions.
Sentiment from market participants.
Volatility and range for the week.
💎 Key Takeaway
"Trading is a marathon, not a sprint." Starting your week with patience helps you trade smarter and align with your strategy.
Let's stay sharp, observe the market, and prepare for the opportunities ahead. 💪
บันทึก
If you could master one trading skill this year, what would it be?บันทึก
How do you stay focused and motivated during periods of drawdown?บันทึก
📊 End of Day Thoughts
Today’s market showed a lot of indecision, with price consolidating around key levels. For me, it was a reminder that waiting for clarity is just as important as taking trades. Tomorrow, I’ll be watchingfor potential setups
บันทึก
What value do you see in joining a trading community that provides personalized mentorship?บันทึก
AU - Monthly CPI Indicator (OCT)
Outcome: Bearish for AUD.
Rationale: A drop to 2.1% YoY inflation signals reduced price pressures.
Best Crossover: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY – Look for AUD weakness.
US - Core PCE Price Index (OCT)
Outcome: Neutral for USD.
Rationale: Consensus alignment (0.3%) keeps inflation expectations steady.
Best Crossover: Neutral impact.
US - Durable Goods Orders (OCT)
Outcome: Mixed for USD.
Rationale: Ex-transportation data (0.5% → 0.6%) bullish, but headline number (-0.7%) bearish.
Best Crossover: USD/JPY – Watch for volatility.
US - GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est (Q3)
Outcome: Bullish for USD.
Rationale: 3% growth outpaces previous expectations, supporting economic strength.
Best Crossover: USD/CAD, EUR/USD – Dollar strength likely.
US - Personal Spending (OCT)
Outcome: Bullish for USD.
Rationale: Increased spending (0.5%) reflects consumer confidence.
Best Crossover: USD/CHF, XAU/USD.
US - Goods Trade Balance (OCT)
Outcome: Bearish for USD.
Rationale: A widening deficit (-108.23B vs. -99.9B) pressures the dollar.
Best Crossover: EUR/USD, USD/JPY.
บันทึก
I hope everyone had a successful trading week and was able to secure some profits! As we look ahead, make sure to stay up to date with the latest market updates. Set alarms on my page and enable email notifications so you don’t miss out on next week's swing opportunities.
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คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมที่ ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน