USOIL - BRENT - WTI : Will it ever pass 76$ this year? Maybe ...

15 ก.ย. 2021

This is my idea for Oil Price movement until year end. Half way from Tech Analysis and Fundamental

WE WILL TAKE IN CONSIDERATION

• Price History
  
• Some Political / Economical rumors / idea
  
• Weather incidence
  
• General Market Stock Price
  

PRICE HISTORY

• 2019 Average prices between 50$ and 65$ (15$ movement)
  
• 2018 There was a small Pump but from September with Big Stock Drop also Oil dropped with from 75$ to 44$ (about 30$ lose)
  
• 2015 -2017 Average prices between 42$ and 52$ (10$ movement)
  
• 2015 Oil dropped from 107$ to 45$ (over 60$ movement within 6 month) (check EXPLANATION / GLOSSARY below)
  
• 2011-2014 Average prices between 85$ and 105$ (20$ movement) (Post SubPrime Real Estate Crisis)
  
• 1970-1980 Oil price peak from about 3$ (about 10$-15$ today) to 35$ (about 110$ today) (we analyze later why)
  

IN DEEP...
For your price prediction this news/rumors/idea must be taken in consideration

• China and India says they will use SPRs Reserve to avoid Oil price to go Up any Further (reads : if Countries opens SPRs, OIL price drops)
  
• Biden called China for "economical agree" (does it ask to wait to open SPRs reserve? Maybe)
  
• Warehouse Shortage (stock supply, goods etc) where drained of by an hungry "buy everything frenzy" during Lockdown. To keep update with demand it is needed to accelerate production (isn't it quite impossible because of "bottle neck" everywhere??). If OIL price go up over reasonable area no-one will never be able to produce goods.
• Biden asked to Opec to rise Oil Production on September. More OIL means drop in Oil Price.
• Opec not responded clearly (are they trying to keep price high?)
  
• There are some rumors about a law for a credit of 12500$ for people that will buy USA EV Cars within 10 years (shift to Renewable Energy means less OIL request, more Oil stock available, price drop)
  
• After 1970/1980 crisis, America know very well what means to not have Oil Reserve and to manage a real high price Oil Supply. If they aren't completely foolish, no one will permit price to rise over a reasonable prices. Too risky.
  
• From September to November Hurricane risk is high. Usually a lot of traders bet for Oil price rise if some production area go down for some weeks.
  

MY IDEA
This is my idea, not a financial advice.

• I believe that Gov will not let OIL price to rise over certain prices. We need to restart economy, to avoid collapse, and a low Oil price will let Industry to regain capacity.
  
• If weather doesn't make damages, oil can stay low.
  
• Industry cannot give another future Up Shot to Stock Market. There are few good to sell this year, expectation for very low gain. When there are drops on Stock Market, also Oil drops (check 2015 and 2018)
  
• China & India (and maybe other countries) will for sure open SPRs, Oil prices will stay low until needed.
  
• OPEC forecast is not so great for this year, so we can expect lower production but also less ask.
  
• Likely price can go down to 60$ or even lower until (maybe) March 2021.
  

IDEA 1

Prices will stay in 60$-65$

IDEA 2

Price will follow an "likely" Stock Market downtrend Until December (see some historical drop similar to Covid, like 2018 drop)

IDEA 3

Price will drop on longer period until spring, when lower gains or losses will be revealed around a lot of sectors. Also I've insert a probability of prices rise for short period to 77$ (this happen on 2015 and 2018...15-30 days of delay from Stock Drop)

IDEA 4

Price will drop until Late December to 50$ area.

EXPLANATION / GLOSSARY

• SPRs : Strategic petroleum reserves, crude oil inventories (or stockpiles) held by the governments of particular countries or private industry, for the purpose of providing economic and national security during an energy crisis. Those were created after 1970-1980 Oil crisis.
  
• 1970-1980 OIL CRISIS : Oil prices start to growth when American, Germany and other countries production capacity start to collapse. High demands for Oil Import rise the prices too much (from 3$ to 35$ is like 10$ to 110$ today ... wait... in 2020 prices go from 20$ to 77$...). This Oil supply request arrived at collapse...
  
• 2015 Oil dump : After SubPrime Real Estate crisis, Economic world start a run to rise everything to new levels. Ask for every type of goods was high, production same. Oil rise because of very high demand. Trend was so happy that Oil Supply reached the Over Supply. (every sector was saturated by extra good)... and OIL prices suddenly crashed from 107$ to 45$ (no more demand)
  

That's all folk. Remember this is not a financial advice.
Maybe I've missed out some ideas...but to write this article took about 1.5hr.
If you like it (and earned something with this ideas) you can consider to donate something to Paypal or Crypto Wallet. This will let me to write other consideration on stock market.

Thank you a lot

16 ก.ย. 2021

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Some news for your Trade
- As today Nicholas became a steady small storm, and caused minor problem to Gulf
- For beginning of October Gulf should fully restart production
- Around 6.4milion barrels fell on 10 Sep in America (417.4 million stockpile)
- 21-22 September FED Congress, rumors say tapering will delayed (or minor solution) (stock restart and oil price drop?)
- 24 September China will disclose SPRs about 6 to 8 million barrels (to keep price low)
- 4 October - 21st OPEC+ Meeting