"Great Leap Forward"-inspired by Great Culture Revolution 1960's

ที่อัปเดต:

The "Great Leap Forward" movement idea is inspired by the "Great Culture Revolution" from 1960's to 1970's in our history.

"Let's play the GAME." - Victor.Y.F
play 0, commodities above zero, a trial play for free. Lol...
play 1, stocks under zero.
play 2, commodities under zero.
play 3, inflations under zero.
advanced play 4, the boss fighting DXY and EURUSD.

All traders comments and player's results are welcome here. I would like to show my game results if you guys show me the game results with comments. Thank you for your likes and ideas!

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Target around 20. ( This is NOT for trading) I unthink bussiness traders and scalpers in TV will believe it and I don't expect that now. OPEC is cutting, supply down. US consumers credit exploding 50%, demand up. A double down, till negative condition is recovered but ECB has gone too deep and too far to rise interests in a short time. If ECB rises quickly the DAX could crash. So the game is on.

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" Unthink, before you drive". but I doubt that.
Saudi- Arabic: "The OPEC production cutting will be executed." Which is causing supply limitation for the price failure under sub zero. Saudi- Arabic: "predicting 1 million bucks growth in 2017." Which is causing a huge demand for the price failure under sub zero. When it's down to 49 a trend is confirmed.

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I wanted to update an alarm yesterday but I didn't. Now it's beginning, an impulse for long term target 20, of cause, scalpers and spuclators won't believe it.

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There're very early signs of the currently oil and food representing inflations could be failed in several months from API and EIA inventories decreasing by the supply limitations and the consumers demand exploding, the GDT auction price falling by the second wave moving down ( actually it's the 5th. wave moving up) both in negative interests condition. Commodity currencies CAD as "loony" and NZD as "kiwi" are correlated.

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CAD and NZD are moving down as predicted. The oil and the food price have more down side guys. The commodities are separated with oil and food prices from the durable goods prices. Prices are distributed and time lagging.
The reasons could be in low volatile condition from market hedging trading. The volatility is too low to form a cooperation of price moving and indexes got benefits.

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The GDT auction price is collapsing tonight. The oil price could be collapsing soon in negative interests condition where supply reaches the limitation and demand explodes from consumer spending. The DXY representing inflation could fail soon.
NZD will be weak from New Zealand GDP dropping. CAD will be weak from oil correlation. I suggest Buying OZ.

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Last warning!
"When it's down to 49 a trend is confirmed." - Victor.Y.F ( 2 months ago)

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For respect "new house rule".
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-09/wti-crude-oil-falls-below-50-per-barrel-for-first-time-since-december

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The GDT auction
globaldairytrade.info

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elliottwavegold.com
The analysis of Lara.She's one of the most intelligent female I've ever seen. but this is her member's privilege. If you guys want to see early charts I suggest turning it into page 4.
This is NOT advertising and trading signal BTW.

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For prevent rumor and respect new house rule, the source is the OPEC.
opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/MOMR March 2017.pdf
From OPEC oil market monthly March report:
"World Oil Demand
The world oil demand growth estimate for 2016 was revised marginally higher by around 50 tb/d to now show growth of 1.38 mb/d to average 95.05 mb/d. Revisions were driven primarily by higher-than-anticipated 4Q16 oil demand in OECD Europe, and Asia Pacific, as well as China, partially offset by minor downward adjustments in the Middle East. For 2017, oil demand growth is anticipated to be around 1.26 mb/d, higher by 70 tb/d from previous month projections, to average 96.31 mb/d. The upward adjustments were due to more optimistic expectations for oil demand in OECD Europe, as well as Asia Pacific.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply growth is estimated to show a contraction of 0.66 mb/d in 2016, in line with the previous report, to average 57.34 mb/d. Higher 4Q16 growth in Canada and Other OECD Europe was offset by downward revisions in the US, Norway, Australia, Brunei and Azerbaijan. In 2017, non-OPEC oil supply is projected to grow by 0.40 mb/d, following an upward revision of 0.16 mb/d to average 57.74 mb/d. An improving outlook for Canadian oil sands and US supply were the main contributors to the revision. OPEC NGLs production in 2017 was revised down by 20 tb/d to now show growth of 0.13 mb/d. In February, OPEC production decreased by 0.14 mb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 31.96 mb/d."

Here's the game playing. Why the demand is exceeding the supply and the oil price shall crash? LOOK THE GAME RULES on the corrected comment chart 2 month ago.

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source: fxstreet.cn/news/ ( This's not an advertising)
The New Zealand GDP is worse than expected today and GDT price shall fall for the huge pull back, those factors won't support KIWI longing. ( as I predicted)
On the contrary OZ dollar raised credit loan interests today for suppress the house price in Australia. A very good point of view from investment is to buy OZ against KIWI and this's an hedge fund manager's favorite too.

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source:finance.ifeng.com/a/20170318/15244210_0.shtml ( Chinese version)
news.sohu.com/20170318/n483738211.shtml?fi ( Chinese version)
Saudi-arabic sold 65 billion US dollar oil at the top of the price around 48.69 to China. Which is the stupid paid price again and again. The oil shall fall to 20 and will be under controled between 10 - 20 for many years. Stupidness bought it at the top.
I point out several SIMULATIONS here ( all ideas NOT for trading but for analysts)
1, The oil production cost is 10- 15 US dollar from Russia energy department. (7th. March 2017 information from Russia official news). China should buy oil from Russia but not from middle east. It's hard to control the risks from where Chinese cultrue influence is weak. The terrorist problem solutions are in the country but not from out side.
2, The oil deal is so huge that could ballance the THAAD situation in south Korea. China should have used the oil deal for gaining support from the Russia government's ban of the THAAD deploy. ( The THAAD is a long range detection radar can watch Russia far east land too) I can see this is a obviously strategy mistake where is saying there's no any clearly geopolitic strategy about North Korea nuclear situation. This could cause the North Korea WAR in the future. In this simulation, China is NOT ready and has NO plan for it. ( " the most important thing is NOT the prediction is right or wrong but the simulation and the emergency plan - Victor.Y.F. As traders "stop loss")
3, President Trump asked hill to process 1000 billion budget deficit which is the mostly is military investment. It's not like Mr.Ma from Alibaba's wrong assuming investment of transportations infrastructure ( It'll be delivered lately after the threaten is deleted.) This will support oil weakness.

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corrected link from last update:
finance.ifeng.com/a/20170318/15244210_0.shtml ( Chinese version)

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corrected link from last update:
news.sohu.com/20170318/n483738211.shtml

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I see enough news from medias that oil price is rising by less supply and see enough long bias from scalpers, bla-bla...... Those speculators sentiments have reached mature level already.

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Source:
cbr.ru/eng/
I've noticed that CBRF ( Bank of Russia) cut rates 0.25% for the inflation target 4% (4.7% now). CBRF predict oil price will drop to 40 or lower soon. It's a better way to stable Rub before it drops and the most interesting thing is USDRUB drops after the cut. It was In 2014 CBRF raised Rub interests for protecting the Russia market and Rub, it's the right thing to do when the stocks market dropped and currency was weak.

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We've seen several days bounce off from low but remembering that the negative interests is still working. If the oil supply becomes less, guess what? The oil price will crash with food inflation but only the core inflation shall rise.
I see an analyst which is talking about the history oil price rising. We see the same market and why I have different view with those overvalued analyst? It's called cognation disfunction. With long time wrongly educated and long time media disorder almost every one has the demand and supply illusion. Of cause in positive condition it shall rise but we're now negative. I try to explain it with mathematic later...

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It's very clearly... inverted.
Only if the ECB points EUR to the oil price then it's a rising where we've formed the bounce off. The ECB's operators must have a lot of technical works to do in this upside down world. I send my sympathy to them... Lol

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I think many analyst have noticed the negative problems. I would like to take you to more steps.
What's about EUR/USD? And those forex market EURO crosses?
What's about the inflation direction?
What's about the DAX? It's rising from buying or selling?
The Elliott wave is still working? From the dada continuity was sabotaged?
It's forming a capital consumption as a black hole of the investment?
Too many consequences there...

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Looks like the oil has found it's solution, USD/CAD has found it's solution too. This is helping Euro's rising now.
If US dollar is weak CAD is weaker, if US dollar is weaker JPY is the weakest in the forex market - Victor.Y.F

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The direction is downside, 2 years ago Lara predicted it's target 20, now it could down to 16. The OPEC and the Russian less care about oil price but more care about the inventory balance now. I can see many charts labeled upside on TV, it's typical speculators sentiments...

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The inflation is at a final squeezing situation. The silver has been collected already. We may many commodities dives, one by one...
DO NOT catch the bottom traders, the very low inflation controlled situation could be lasting 24 months or more, waiting for A shares topping cycle completion.
For example, US oil diving target 12-16 and under controlled between 10-20 for 2 years. It looks like the oil market where are back to 1970's and before that.

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The food/oil inflation has topped already guys, switching to the core one. Many traders labeled oil direction upside, it's wrong.

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The last leg lower looks like coming soon, the USDCAD correlated oil and the indexes.

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After the second hike from BOC our long term perspective is neutral now. If the oil price is lagging then it should rise in a condition where no more production cut from OPEC. The oil price may pull back to 50-60 soon. Our key confirmation is closed above 10 months SMA.

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May be limited by the US supply.

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Now bearish, commodities are all lagging with the core one. I will quickly update some commodities soon. Noticed that the core inflation crashing is done.

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Thomson Reuters CRB, testing 10 months SMA.

Sugar, bearish.

Coffee, bearish.

Soybean, flat.

Cotton, bullish.

Copper, bullish above 10 months SMA.

Iron, bullish.

Natural Gas, bearish.

Oil, bullish above 10 months SMA, but turn to bearish for testing the SMA.

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With core inflation huge pull back, the food/oil should drop after that, the stocks will be squeezing inevitably. If the core inflation is a failure without more hikes, then we should have a new QE following with it.
hike, core inflation, stocks, one by one. If they pull back, also they should be happening one by one.

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Almost there...

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I'm wondering which market shall be failed at first, EU zone stocks, US stocks, Oil/Food inflation, core inflation, China stocks? from an US dollar impulse.

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We're meeting 55 months SMA at 63.74, shall form a top in 5 months. Our target is around 30- 34, could be lower.

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Now we look for trending from oil future until it's turned.

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Can go to 80 before the fall.

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Should pull back here before reaching the 100 higher.

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Oil is lagging in the forex market, it should drop to correct from here.

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Oil price is too high now, President Trump wants lower price for USA people. The Iran oil negotiation may have begun.
The GO monthly ratio is showing a bottom at the trend line here. We've predicted a little pull back.

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Saudi-Arabic and Russia are increasing the production, also other countries may join them, oil price will pull back soon.
Please remember the oil price is very political, there’s no “free market” (many Chinese blindly think there is but the reality is against them) at all in this world.

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Oil is dropping from higher, right? The price may drop slowly into later of 2019.

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The funniest thing is after China forced people to use oil with adding alcohol into it, the price is dropping lower. We’ve predicted oil price could go lower to correct 61.8% of the first leg from 2015. Buy more from Iran for the strategic reserve before the price goes to the moon.

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Down to 48-50 before the bounce happening, lower to 10-20 at the worst scenario, traders should look at GS ratio for more clues.
This looks like President Trump has released the USA strategy oil reservation already.

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What is a GS ratio represented industrial production, the electic generator using oil. Because the electric power is too expensive for consumers, people are looking for this generator. The poverty is squeezing human being into new inventions, the Tesla motor and electric cars. But the energy revolution is just beginning.
This's saying that the gasoline companies didn't understand the culture revolution on the world that it will lead to the oil price down to 10-20 for long term point of view. consequently, the family using electric and the military using the oil should be the future separation.

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See that? Qatar quitted OPEC. The oil production in 2019 may limitlessly.

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France oil revolution and culture movement is showing that the poverty has been caused by the ECB for an extreme condition. Honestly speaking, due to the negative interests in the Euro, the ECB don' t know where the inflation is really at very high level, that thought they're succeed...
Now the truth is against them, the European must change now. Let's see what's happening in this very key month.

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President Trump twittered about oil price once again, just minutes ago.
FYI, the world energy revolutionary is just at the very beginning, this will change the electric energy into a cheapest way.
The oil price has some bizarre models. Think about this, for maintaining the same profits, at 90 dollar oil production countries will supply less and at 20 dollar they will supply more. This model is saying that the oil price has a collapse price and has a dead zone. So after the collapse if price drops into the dead zone, the production will be limitless, for very oil output countries trying to maintain the same profits as before.
Consequently, if that happens, oil price will stay in the dead zone between 10-20 for many years just like 1970s. This price model even doesn't count the energy revolution in the cheapest electric cars.
The energy revolution should've happened in 2000 where little Bush was the president, but the 911 broke it.
Now President Trump looks like taking over Bush's action now.

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The OPEC is making the mistake which they don’t look to the future, also the Canada should be warned because of the oil price is correlated to the CAD. Due to the ECB negative money policy which we’ve sad a lot is unhealthy, the commodity market prices have been sabotaged.
The most important thing is that the US dollar hike has made inflation higher and Chinese are getting poor and poor by no hike to be against it. ( the very source of nationalist and populist) So the poverty has been spread into France already, where you guys can see it. China has forced drivers to using alcohol gasoline already, thing about it.

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We close this investigation here.
This has talked too much of the future, we don't want to draw any attention from CIA and MI6. We're independent analysts and we don't work for the government.
Meanwhile, President Trump wants to meet Xi and Putin for talking about military fee, in case of leaking, that they will talk about the energy revolution which will make a better world to let the peace last longer.
Case closure.

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Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs warned traders... it's NOT stable.
Please read our analysis, especially Chinese scalpers, you don't know what you're doing.

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Stupid Chinese speculators, right? News says 15 billion Renminbi options lost.
finance.qq.com/a/20181227/013004.htm
The common sense is this:
"Asset holder like this huge company must short the price using future market and using leverage." Victor.Y.F

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2020/03/21 Beijing time 13:23
Previously

Now... it might have to stay low for years

On Dec 05, 2018, we said that:
"The oil price has some bizarre models. Think about this, for maintaining the same profits, at 90 dollar oil production countries will supply less and at 20 dollar they will supply more. This model is saying that the oil price has a collapse price and has a dead zone. So after the collapse if price drops into the dead zone, the production will be limitless, for every oil output countries trying to maintain the same profits as before.
Consequently, if that happens, oil price will stay in the dead zone between 10-20 for many years just like 1970s. This price model even doesn't count the energy revolution in the cheapest electric cars.
The energy revolution should've happened in 2000 where little Bush was the president, but the 911 broke it.
Now President Trump looks like taking over Bush's action now."

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2020/04/15 Beijing time 14:26
Stay away from the oil market. This one hasn't found a bottom yet.
"Goldman Sachs: Oil prices may need to fall to $10-15 a barrel; Demand for crude oil is expected to rise by the middle of the year."
A mathematical problem of how to count the percentage.
Think about 10 dollar rise to 20 dollar a barrel, WOW! it's 100 percent rise! The oil is gonna rise! Now think about 20 dollar drop to 10 dollar a barrel, it's only 50 percent drop. Totally price hasn't move but the percentage is calculated differently, right?
So for us, nothing is big, between 10- 20 dollar a barrel is still a low price.......

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2020/04/20 Beijing time 21:19

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2020/04/20 Beijing time 21:20

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2020/04/22 Beijing time 19:34
News is that the Bank of China lost huge of money in the oil long future.
Customers have risen a group case to charge Bank of China. It's said that one customer for 100 Chinese Yuan long position, lost 3 million Chinese Yuan, who may have to sell the house for pay the loss.
Stupid right?

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2020/04/22 Beijing time 20:46
Source: FXCM,
The Mexico President Lopez: "We have had 1.5 Trillion Mexican Peso with shorting hedge protection from 49 dollar a barrel."
See? The true purpose of the future market function is showing for Mexico oil producer.
We quote our comment here, on Dec 28, 2018:
"Stupid Chinese speculators, right? News says 15 billion Renminbi options lost.
The common sense is this: Asset holder like this huge company must short the price using future market and using leverage. Victor.Y.F"
Mexican did it right, as producers should short the market from the first place. Others like assets holders, oil companies, banks, must short the market to balance the speculators.
People learn after they have a lesson taught, but for some one, they will never learn.

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2021/2/17 Beijing time 18:58
Sugar, short......
previously

now

Victor.Y.F

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