Crude oil pushes higher

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Crude oil continues to push higher. Front-month WTI is currently trading well above $85 per barrel, which is its highest level since the end of October last year. The rally began three weeks ago, after crude punched through resistance at $80, a level that had held it back since November. It briefly tested $80 as support. That held quite comfortably, setting up crude for its current move. Tensions continue to mount across the Middle East, and many analysts predict that a break-out of hostilities beyond Israel’s borders is inevitable. At the same time, Ukraine and Russia have increased attacks on each other’s energy infrastructures, raising concerns of supply disruptions. Then, recent data releases continue to show that the US economy is surprisingly strong. Monday’s better-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI along with today’s large increase in ADP Payrolls have boosted confidence in the economy, which is the biggest consumer of crude oil. Meanwhile, the poor ISM Services PMI, also released today, was ignored. Over the weekend, we also saw a sharp uptick in China’s Manufacturing PMI. This added to mounting evidence that China, the world’s largest crude oil importer, is turning a corner and that its economy is recovering. Today’s large build in US crude inventories was overshadowed by big drawdowns in gasoline and distillates, and the poor ISM Services PMI was shrugged off, suggesting that the path of least resistance is up, for now.