Oil ETF Makes a Lower High
The U.S. Oil Fund ETF has been ripping since December. But now it may be showing signs of fatigue.
The main pattern on today’s chart is the lower high on March 23 versus March 8. That could suggest prices are entering a longer period of consolidation – possibly with an ABC correction resolving below the March 16 low of $67.73.
Next is the high-volume spinning top earlier this month. That’s a potential reversal candle.
Third, the equity market is giving some potential warning signs because the SPDR Energy ETF has started lagging the S&P 500. (This chart features our Smart Relative Strength script.) XLE could be important because it broke out to new highs a full week before USO (January 5 versus January 12). Its underperformance now is also potentially bearish:
Finally, the news cycle may be less positive for oil as China battles coronavirus and diplomats seek an end to the Ukraine conflict. OPEC+ is expected to stick with a small production increase on Thursday, which is bullish. Will traders “sell the news” after the event?
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TradingView is not affiliated with TradeStation Securities Inc. or its affiliates. TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means.
This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates.
Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: https://www.tradestation.com/important-information.
The main pattern on today’s chart is the lower high on March 23 versus March 8. That could suggest prices are entering a longer period of consolidation – possibly with an ABC correction resolving below the March 16 low of $67.73.
Next is the high-volume spinning top earlier this month. That’s a potential reversal candle.
Third, the equity market is giving some potential warning signs because the SPDR Energy ETF has started lagging the S&P 500. (This chart features our Smart Relative Strength script.) XLE could be important because it broke out to new highs a full week before USO (January 5 versus January 12). Its underperformance now is also potentially bearish:
Finally, the news cycle may be less positive for oil as China battles coronavirus and diplomats seek an end to the Ukraine conflict. OPEC+ is expected to stick with a small production increase on Thursday, which is bullish. Will traders “sell the news” after the event?
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
Important Information
TradingView is not affiliated with TradeStation Securities Inc. or its affiliates. TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means.
This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates.
Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: https://www.tradestation.com/important-information.
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