Pre-fed 4H USDZAR

31 ม.ค. 2023

The upward momentum seems to be fading as we await the open of the US session. The orange 23.6% Fibo retracement at 17.50 is a strong resistance and psychological rate for the pair and I don’t see it giving way before the major Fed event tomorrow. Over the slightly longer term I’m bearish on the rand after the pair broke above the key 50-day MA level at 17.15 and 17.30.

A pullback seems to be on the cards as the 4H RSI is topping out just under the overbought zone and the buy signal on the MACD is losing momentum. The pullback will likely see the pair slide into the range between the green 38.2% Fibo retracement rate at 17.18 and the 23.6% Fibo retracement rate at 17.30. The rate at 17.30 will also swing from a previous resistance to a support. (I’m personally planning to leave a few buy limit orders scattered in this range). Given all the market moving data releases and Central bank announcements I suspect we could see the rand weaken towards the range between 17.60 and 17.70. A break above this resistance range will allow the pair to climb higher towards the blue 61.8% Fibo retracement rate of 17.84.

(I'll drop the daily timeframe chart in the comments below for context regarding the Fibo retracements levels I'm using)

Also see attached my idea for the DXY as we prepare for Fed week!

1 ก.พ. 2023

บันทึก

Pullback is playing out nicely. We broke below support level one at 17.39 (Blue 38.2% Fibo) and the pair almost kissed support level 2 at 17.30 (green 23.% Fibo).

My buy limit orders are at 17.20, 17.18 and an ambitious 17.15 (50-day MA), since a touch off 17.12 (blue 23.6% fibo) is possible given the high risk Fed event tonight in the US session.