What does the crystal ball says about the LIRA?

2 ต.ค. 2020

You don't need a crystal ball to know what will happen to the Turkish economy should the price of the Lira hits 8.000x.
If you don't know, let me take you for a walk.

The Lira has lost half the value in just a few years. To make it worse, President Erdoğan's policies have not been good either. Personally, I would call them blunders, and here's a list some of these blunders:

• Foreign direct investments .
  The government's policies towards foreign investors have not been friendly at all. They have worked against the Turkish economy leading to a full withdrawal of foreign investments.
  
  
• The firing of the Central Bank Governor
  Universally, for Central banks to function properly and manage monetary policy, they must be independent. However, President Erdoğan did fire the central bank governor, basically placing himself as the one in charge. This has led the Central Bank to adopt crazy policies that have left experts dumbfounded. For instance, if you thought the US FED is wrong for it's current money printing, you should check out Turkey's printers. This year alone, money supply was at a whole new level compared to other emerging economies including Pakistan and India. And the real yields, negative compared to the same emerging economies. The interest rate is at 10% while inflation is at 11%. What does all these mean? Well, it's simple if you put money in a savings bank account, it will lose value.
  
  
• The Bullion
  In the past few years, locals have been secretly selling cars and houses to buy GOLD. This is because the Turkish government has placed restrictions on locals transacting with other currencies. To make matters worse, XAUUSD has risen in value this year. This implies that more assets will be sold to acquire GOLD.
  
  
• Diminished foreign reserves
  Since the second quarter of 2020, Erdoğan has pushed for the use of foreign reserves to the point that they are at the lowest level in decades. This has left the economy in a rather unsettling situation.
  
  
• Armenia vs Azerbaijan.
  Well, the recent borders clashes have roped in Turkey. This is having an opposite impact of the intended effect of the recent interest rate hike.
  
  
• The DXY strength
  Well, let's just hope the global equity markets hold. If a selloff unfolds, that's a checkmate for the Lira.
  

These are some of the factors affecting the current price level. Experts have advised that the 8.00x price level may lead to the collapse to the Lira and Turkish economy.

I'll keep updating you and also add more information about what led to the current Turkish economic situation and why experts think that 8 figure is bad news as price evolves.