Turkish Lira sells the rumour of a rate hike: buy the news?
Hello traders.
I have been in a bit of a pickle this month: between elections in the US and a stalling EUR/USD,
my demo took a bit of a hit (more than I care to tell) and one big mistake was to go long SP500
on the NYSE open the very day that a Covid19 vaccine was announced... There was optimism on
Wall Street and I was looking for some direction in anything that had candlesticks to its name...
I got caught out in a false move AND the platform froze for several hours, before I could work out
stops etc. I lost 75k of paper money, which really hurt my pride and my record.
I have gone about reconstructing my account and really giving myself a big talk about never trusting
the media on 'optimism' stories when it comes to my own trading. Sitting on your hands for several
weeks is indeed what you sometimes have to do, but it does become difficult if that has not been
necessary for some time.
I have looked at Bitcoin, again ignoring media stories but actually genuinely trying to get in on the
latest swing high, though now it is showing RSI divergence on the daily and looking like it is struggling,
thus I am staying out of that one for now.
My other two trades are: USD/MXN long, which looks to be worth holding on to for a wide target, as
it is quite oversold and testing former resistance (now support) from 2018 and 2019, around the 20,000-20,100 mark;
the second trade is EUR/TRY long, which takes me to the topic of this video.
In the rate hike of today, what did the Turkish central bank hope to achieve? Stem inflation and rescue the ongoing
currency crisis. Erdogan is somehow changing his tune with the newly appointed governor, probably tired of watching
his beloved Lira falling by more than 30 percent this year alone (on top of more losses before that) and forcing a rate hold
on the central bank.
My contention is that the last few days we say a 10,000+ pip sell-off that was on the anticipation of the hike, whereas action
today was quite muted (although still bearish) and that seems to suggest that Lira buying is done - buy the rumour, sell the news -
thus it is back to business as before, selling Lira (and watching the decade-old USD/TRY uptrend continue).
I go into more detail, so please look at my volume analysis through MSCI iShares Turkey ETF to get a sense of how I am looking at
this long trade as a goer.
Thanks for watching!
See you in my next
Francesco (FreeFX)
I have been in a bit of a pickle this month: between elections in the US and a stalling EUR/USD,
my demo took a bit of a hit (more than I care to tell) and one big mistake was to go long SP500
on the NYSE open the very day that a Covid19 vaccine was announced... There was optimism on
Wall Street and I was looking for some direction in anything that had candlesticks to its name...
I got caught out in a false move AND the platform froze for several hours, before I could work out
stops etc. I lost 75k of paper money, which really hurt my pride and my record.
I have gone about reconstructing my account and really giving myself a big talk about never trusting
the media on 'optimism' stories when it comes to my own trading. Sitting on your hands for several
weeks is indeed what you sometimes have to do, but it does become difficult if that has not been
necessary for some time.
I have looked at Bitcoin, again ignoring media stories but actually genuinely trying to get in on the
latest swing high, though now it is showing RSI divergence on the daily and looking like it is struggling,
thus I am staying out of that one for now.
My other two trades are: USD/MXN long, which looks to be worth holding on to for a wide target, as
it is quite oversold and testing former resistance (now support) from 2018 and 2019, around the 20,000-20,100 mark;
the second trade is EUR/TRY long, which takes me to the topic of this video.
In the rate hike of today, what did the Turkish central bank hope to achieve? Stem inflation and rescue the ongoing
currency crisis. Erdogan is somehow changing his tune with the newly appointed governor, probably tired of watching
his beloved Lira falling by more than 30 percent this year alone (on top of more losses before that) and forcing a rate hold
on the central bank.
My contention is that the last few days we say a 10,000+ pip sell-off that was on the anticipation of the hike, whereas action
today was quite muted (although still bearish) and that seems to suggest that Lira buying is done - buy the rumour, sell the news -
thus it is back to business as before, selling Lira (and watching the decade-old USD/TRY uptrend continue).
I go into more detail, so please look at my volume analysis through MSCI iShares Turkey ETF to get a sense of how I am looking at
this long trade as a goer.
Thanks for watching!
See you in my next
Francesco (FreeFX)
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