USD/TRY: Long...

20 พ.ย. 2023

The Bank of Turkey will have its policy meeting on November 23, 2023. Whatever the outcome, I expect it to be good for the USD. Therefore, I am long now and will hold this pair through the meeting and beyond.

24 พ.ย. 2023

บันทึกช่วยจำ

The outcome was still good for the USD.

24 พ.ย. 2023

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Remaining long...

26 ก.พ.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

"President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who was reelected in May, reversed his unconventional policies." This is one of the catalysts that triggered a "currency crisis and drove up the cost of living, leaving households struggling to afford basic goods." (abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/turkish-central-bank-key-interest-rate-unchanged-pausing-107441035

This caused the former central bank governor, Hafize Gaye Erkan, to move the interest rate from 8.5% in June 2023 to 45% in January 2024. The central bank decided to keep rates the same in February 2024.

"Despite the series of hikes, inflation remains high — consumer prices rose nearly 65% in January." (ibid)

Key terms to watch out for: central bank's views and potential anticipation on inflation and consumer prices.