USDMXN (Mexican Peso) and a bearish Elliott Wave Pattern

The strong sell-off in the USDMXN over the past few days provides clues that bounces higher have been large corrective moves.

First of all, the pattern from May 2013 to Jan 2014 (maroon block labels) suggests it is a large 3 wave bounce higher.

The sell off since Jan 2014 could count as an impulsive 5 wave decline.

Secondly, the bounce higher starting in June 2014 is a clear 3 wave affair with current pricing overlapping the June 2014 high of 13.14.

As a result, two different 3 wave moves higher suggest the much bigger picture is positioned to the downside. Now, the question becomes where we find resistance to sell a bounce.

There is some resistance near 13.14. A bounce into that level could be a first look. Risk can be placed near 13.21

First target would be 12.90 with lower potential if this is a red wave (3).