USDJPY H1/D1 bearish move within larger rising trend channel
ที่อัปเดต:
D1 USDJPY gapped down about 15 pips at open, and is probing down into a prior price range from 28 Feb that provided support on Friday: about 110.66 to 111.08. Prefer short trades for now. Friday had an H1 ABCD pattern where CD achieved about 70% of AB. In the past 2 weeks, H1 price (yellow lines) broke down out of an rising wedge, then DOWN again out of a falling expanding channel (megaphone). The second breakout down showed accelerating bearish movement, which usually means expect a climactic selloff and sharp mean reversion reversal back to a prior high/low swing or base range. This may have already happened with Friday's NFP spike down to 110.75.
Right now at GMT+2 04:30 during Asian session, price is testing Friday's low at 110.75. If price can't clear the Friday C retrace high of the ABCD pattern, we should see more selling. That was 111.212, and also was last week's prior-week HL/2 median price. Also, by moving in a range, price has slowly broken down through a prior D1 rising trendline.
I marked some prior D1 highs/lows that may be price targets for this downtrend:
110.65
110.35
110.15
if price CAN get back over 111.212, I'd immediately target buys for prior month close and high:
111.38
111.49
But that would be a counter trend buy trade, back up towards low end of a prior base range of price. The only rising trendline support on D1 is currently projected at 109.90, so there's plenty of room for a longer D1 downtrend within the larger uptrend channel.
Chart is a little messy with lines, but it's intended for intraday M1, M5 use. Yellow lines are drawn on H1 timeframe, brown lines are drawn on D1 timeframe, light green are lines on W timeframe, and dark green line on M timeframe. The horizontal segments are the Previous Period Levels indicator by JayRogers, to provide support/resistance.
Right now at GMT+2 04:30 during Asian session, price is testing Friday's low at 110.75. If price can't clear the Friday C retrace high of the ABCD pattern, we should see more selling. That was 111.212, and also was last week's prior-week HL/2 median price. Also, by moving in a range, price has slowly broken down through a prior D1 rising trendline.
I marked some prior D1 highs/lows that may be price targets for this downtrend:
110.65
110.35
110.15
if price CAN get back over 111.212, I'd immediately target buys for prior month close and high:
111.38
111.49
But that would be a counter trend buy trade, back up towards low end of a prior base range of price. The only rising trendline support on D1 is currently projected at 109.90, so there's plenty of room for a longer D1 downtrend within the larger uptrend channel.
Chart is a little messy with lines, but it's intended for intraday M1, M5 use. Yellow lines are drawn on H1 timeframe, brown lines are drawn on D1 timeframe, light green are lines on W timeframe, and dark green line on M timeframe. The horizontal segments are the Previous Period Levels indicator by JayRogers, to provide support/resistance.
บันทึกช่วยจำ
P.S. For thoroughness, details on the Friday ABCD pattern:AB=58 pips
100% CD target would have been 110.63
Actual CD was 43 pips, or 74% AB
Remember that 50% ABCD completion is much more likely than 100% completion. Or so I've read. I don't have sufficient data of my own to rigorously verify this.
บันทึกช่วยจำ
NOTE: DXY Dollar index is in a retrace down off of a daily bullish ABCD. With the way it looks, my gut instinct technical analysis tells me to expect an attempt at a 3rd thrust up to retest and possibly make a small break of the prior DXY high, meaning USDJPY could go up.
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