USD_JPY (125 Pips)
The USD/JPY pair has been exhibiting significant strength recently, hitting a 6-month high last week and continuing to trade near elevated levels. Based on yesterday's range (Open 157.151, High 157.955, Low 156.235, Close 157.640), the pair remains in a bullish trend. Following is my analysis of the fundamental and technical factors that may influence its movement over the next three days.
Fundamental Analysis
The USD/JPY pair's recent strength can be attributed to several key factors:
Divergent Monetary Policies:
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained its accommodative monetary policy, while the Federal Reserve has been more hawkish. Despite expectations for the BoJ to normalize its policy in 2024, this didn't materialize as anticipated. The persistent policy divergence continues to support the USD/JPY pair.
Yield Differentials:
The significant gap between US and Japanese bond yields remains a crucial driver for USD/JPY. As of late 2024, the 10-year US bond yield stood at 4.5%, substantially higher than Japan's. This yield differential attracts carry trades, supporting the pair's upward momentum.
Economic Data:
Upcoming US labor market data, scheduled for release on Friday, January 10, could significantly impact the pair's movement. Strong US economic data could further strengthen the USD.
Potential Intervention:
With USD/JPY approaching the 157.00-160.00 range, there's increased speculation about potential intervention by Japanese authorities to support the yen. This factor could introduce volatility in the coming days.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair shows a strong bullish trend, but there are signs of potential consolidation or correction:
Resistance Levels:
The pair is currently facing significant resistance in the 157.72-158.32 range. A break above 158.32 could lead to further gains, potentially targeting the multi-decade high of 161.95.
Support Levels:
Key support levels to watch include 156.00 and 155.00, which are currently the most important short-term support levels.
Momentum Indicators:
The Marlin oscillator is pointing downward on the daily timeframe, suggesting that any price rise above 158.32 could be a false breakout. However, on the H4 timeframe, the Marlin oscillator has entered positive territory, indicating potential for further growth.
Trend Analysis:
The pair remains in a bullish trend, as evidenced by a rising trend line and key moving averages below the price. However, a decisive break below the bullish trend line that has been in place since September could signal the start of a deeper correction.
Outlook for the Next Three Days
Given the current technical and fundamental factors, the USD/JPY pair is likely to continue its consolidation near current levels in the short term. The 157.72-158.32 range appears to be a crucial battleground. A break above this range could see the pair testing higher levels, potentially towards 159.45 and even 161.95.
However, traders should be cautious of potential intervention by Japanese authorities if the pair approaches the 160.00 level. Additionally, the upcoming US labor market data could introduce volatility.
In conclusion, while the overall trend remains bullish, the risk of a correction or consolidation is increasing. Traders should closely monitor key technical levels and upcoming economic data for potential trade opportunities in the coming days.
Fundamental Analysis
The USD/JPY pair's recent strength can be attributed to several key factors:
Divergent Monetary Policies:
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained its accommodative monetary policy, while the Federal Reserve has been more hawkish. Despite expectations for the BoJ to normalize its policy in 2024, this didn't materialize as anticipated. The persistent policy divergence continues to support the USD/JPY pair.
Yield Differentials:
The significant gap between US and Japanese bond yields remains a crucial driver for USD/JPY. As of late 2024, the 10-year US bond yield stood at 4.5%, substantially higher than Japan's. This yield differential attracts carry trades, supporting the pair's upward momentum.
Economic Data:
Upcoming US labor market data, scheduled for release on Friday, January 10, could significantly impact the pair's movement. Strong US economic data could further strengthen the USD.
Potential Intervention:
With USD/JPY approaching the 157.00-160.00 range, there's increased speculation about potential intervention by Japanese authorities to support the yen. This factor could introduce volatility in the coming days.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair shows a strong bullish trend, but there are signs of potential consolidation or correction:
Resistance Levels:
The pair is currently facing significant resistance in the 157.72-158.32 range. A break above 158.32 could lead to further gains, potentially targeting the multi-decade high of 161.95.
Support Levels:
Key support levels to watch include 156.00 and 155.00, which are currently the most important short-term support levels.
Momentum Indicators:
The Marlin oscillator is pointing downward on the daily timeframe, suggesting that any price rise above 158.32 could be a false breakout. However, on the H4 timeframe, the Marlin oscillator has entered positive territory, indicating potential for further growth.
Trend Analysis:
The pair remains in a bullish trend, as evidenced by a rising trend line and key moving averages below the price. However, a decisive break below the bullish trend line that has been in place since September could signal the start of a deeper correction.
Outlook for the Next Three Days
Given the current technical and fundamental factors, the USD/JPY pair is likely to continue its consolidation near current levels in the short term. The 157.72-158.32 range appears to be a crucial battleground. A break above this range could see the pair testing higher levels, potentially towards 159.45 and even 161.95.
However, traders should be cautious of potential intervention by Japanese authorities if the pair approaches the 160.00 level. Additionally, the upcoming US labor market data could introduce volatility.
In conclusion, while the overall trend remains bullish, the risk of a correction or consolidation is increasing. Traders should closely monitor key technical levels and upcoming economic data for potential trade opportunities in the coming days.
การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่
USD_JPY target met, looks like bullish trend will continue to 160!
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมที่ ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมที่ ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน