USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

Past week saw a narrow range of 81.60-82.09. The Monthly bearish candle could be one with the narrow range viz. 81.57-82.45. A close below 81.70 favors further lower levels. At least for the moment, it appears that the Pair seems to be in no mood to breach 81.60 on a closing basis. In such scenario we may expect a consolidation between 81.60 and 82.25. There could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. This week is crucial for the pair to break or bounce The pair has a tendency to make surprise moves when most in the market do not expect.

A few more observations:
• Moves in Dollar Index-DXY does not have direct correlation
• The currency corrected after making multiple attempts to break 83
• The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 77.10-83.30
• As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference.
o The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70.
o This range is continuing to be protected
o The target for this move is 80.60 provided 81.60 is taken out on a closing basis