Market Surprise? June Rate Cut Might Be Delayed

18 มี.ค.

Market Surprise? June Rate Cut Might Be Delayed

After today’s BOJ and RBA interest rate decisions, eyes will turn to the Fed’s decision on Wednesday.

Although the US central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged, it could change its outlook due to the upside surprise in the latest CPI and PPI reports.

For now, the first cut is still seen happening in June, but there is a possibility that this gets pushed back a month or two again. Maybe the market would be the only one surprised by this possibility.

But what USD pair could be interesting this week?

The Canadian Dollar is facing pressure in anticipation of the February inflation figures set to release on Tuesday. Analysts expect the annual headline inflation to have risen to 3.1% from January's 2.9%. This could postpone the Bank of Canada's intentions to lower interest rates, potentially leading to a clash with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy plans.

Depending on where market sentiment lay after we get the US and Canada data, the 100-day SMA could continue to support bulls. If sentiment turns, we have the 50- and 200-day SMA, which sits just above the ascending triangle trend, as a target for another support.