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Dow Jones US30 long

Dow has defended 30% retracement and closedabove 0.61 Fib

A break above 34662 will drive Dow to 35634 . A successfull Break above 37000(High 2022) will be the the start of the 2nd phase of the bulltrend to reach 42491

The Dow Jones closed more than 209 points higher on Monday, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq added 0.2% each, as investors awaited the US consumer and producer inflation reports later this week and braced for the start of the second quarter earnings season. The upcoming inflation report is expected to offer additional evidence regarding inflationary pressures and provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future actions. Traders are currently pricing in a nearly 92% chance for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this month, but the odds for another quarter point hike later in the year have been swinging, currently standing at 22% for September and 33% for November. Healthcare shares were among top performers of the session including Amgen (+2.5%). Also, Inter (+2.8%), Honeywell (+2.2%) and Home Depot (2.5%) outperformed while mega cap shares dragged as Apple (-1.1%), Tesla (-1.7%), Microsoft (-1.6%), Alphabet (-2.5%) and Amazon (-2%) ended in the red.

US Consumer Credit Misses Forecasts, Lowest Since 2020

Total consumer credit in the US increased by $7.24 billion in May of 2023, following a downwardly revised $20.32 billion rise in the previous month and well below market expectations of a $20.25 billion rise. It was the smallest monthly gain in consumer credit since November of 2020, as revolving credit, like credit cards, growth slowed to $8.49 billion (or +8.2 percent on annual basis), compared to an upwardly revised $14.16 billion rise in the prior month. Non Revolving credit, typically auto and student loans, fell by $1.25 billion ( or -0.4 percent), following a downwardly revised $6.15 billion gain in the prior month

Trend Bullish
Strategy Long Bullish

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The Dow Jones closed more than 209 points higher on Monday, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq added 0.2% each, as investors awaited the US consumer and producer inflation reports later this week and braced for the start of the second quarter earnings season. The upcoming inflation report is expected to offer additional evidence regarding inflationary pressures and provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future actions. Traders are currently pricing in a nearly 92% chance for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this month, but the odds for another quarter point hike later in the year have been swinging, currently standing at 22% for September and 33% for November. Healthcare shares were among top performers of the session including Amgen (+2.5%). Also, Inter (+2.8%), Honeywell (+2.2%) and Home Depot (2.5%) outperformed while mega cap shares dragged as Apple (-1.1%), Tesla (-1.7%), Microsoft (-1.6%), Alphabet (-2.5%) and Amazon (-2%) ended in the red.

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Fed is close to end of rate hiking cycle, central bank officials say
July 10 (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve will likely need to raise interest rates further to bring down inflation that is still too high, but the end to its current monetary policy tightening cycle is getting close, several U.S. central bank officials said on Monday.
The Fed has raised interest rates by 5 percentage points since March 2022 to bring down the highest U.S. inflation in four decades. Fed policymakers opted last month to forego a rate increase to give themselves time to assess the still-developing effects of the previous hikes in borrowing costs, even as most also penciled in at least two more increases by the end of 2023.
"We're likely to need a couple more rate hikes over the course of this year to really bring inflation" sustainably back to the U.S. central bank's 2% goal, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said during an event at the Brookings Institution, giving voice to the most common view among her rate-setting peers at the Fed.
But, Daly added, while the risks of doing too little are still greater than those of overdoing it on rate hikes, the two sides are getting into better balance as the Fed nears "the last part" of its hiking cycle.
Daly said she fully supported June's policy decision, along with a go-slower approach that allows for more "extreme" data-dependence. "We may end up doing less because we need to do less; we may end up doing just that; we could end up doing more. The data will tell us." Fed policymakers are widely expected to deliver a rate hike at their meeting later this month, a move that would bring the policy rate to the 5.25%-5.50% range.
What's less clear is whether they will raise rates again at the September meeting, wait until November, or just stay on hold and let inflation ease over time.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said he cannot rule out consecutive rate hikes to deal with stubbornly high inflation, which by the central bank's preferred gauge, the personal consumption expenditures index, has fallen from a peak of 7% last year to 3.8% in May, still nearly twice the Fed's target.
"We still have a bit of work to do," Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said on Monday at a separate event. "I'll just say for myself, I think we're close." Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, speaking at yet another event on Monday, repeated his view that the Fed can be "patient" on rates and allow restrictive policy to bring down inflation without further action by the central bank.
But within the Fed there remains a camp that feels just the opposite.
"In June, I was in the camp that we move up a little bit more and, in assessing where things are today, I'm still in that camp," Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said at an event held by the University of California, San Diego.
Still, she said, "we are closer to the end of our tightening phase than the beginning."

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US 10-Year Treasury Yield Down for 2nd Session

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell below 4%, retreating for the second consecutive session after hitting its highest since November 2022 at almost 4.1% as investors turned cautious ahead of key economic data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate policy moves. The CPI report on Wednesday is expected to show headline annual inflation fell to 3.1% in June from 4% in the previous month, while the core index probably decreased to 5% from 5.3%. Markets are now pricing in a 94.9% chance of rates being hiked again during the central bank’s upcoming meeting on July 25-26 but uncertainty remains for the other three Fed meetings scheduled for later in the year. In the latest Fed commentary, Fed President Mary Daly said that she expects two further rate hikes to be announced this year to lower inflation, in line with early comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

Americans Become More Pessimistic in July
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index in the US unexpectedly fell to 41.3 in July 2023, the lowest since November last year, compared to 41.7 in June and market forecasts of 45.3. It also marks a 23rd month the reading stands below 50, indicating Americans remain pessimistic. “The economy continues to be the number one issue for Americans as we prepare for earnings season and new inflation data. The Six-Month Economic Outlook was the lone bright spot for July, as optimism slightly increased for the long-term, but it’s still a long way from positive. Expect some more twists and turns before consumers trust that the economy has stabilized”, said Ed Carson, IBD's news editor. The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, fell to 50 from 51.9 and the gauge for Confidence in Federal Economic Policies edged lower to 38.5 from 38.6. On the other hand, the Six-Month Economic Outlook rose to 35.5 from 34.5.

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Wall Street Extends Gain Ahead of CPI Data
US stocks closed higher on Tuesday, extending gains for the second session, as investors looked forward to the key inflation report due tomorrow. The Dow Jones finished over 316 points higher, as Salesforce rose 3.9% after the company announced it will be increasing list prices an average of 9% in August. 3M and Boeing were also among the top performers and advanced by 4.8% and 2.6%, respectively. The S&P 500 gained nearly 0.7%, led by the energy sector as APA (+6.3%), Halliburton (+4.2%) and Schlumberger (+4.5%) outperformed. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq added 0.5%. Traders were also digesting comments from several Fed officials which continued to point to the need of further tightening this year. The odds for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this year currently stand at 95%, but investors remain divided about another rate hike. The economic calendar is soft today and the earnings season kicks off later in the week.

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US Stocks Pop on Cooling Inflation
All major US stocks indexes were trading in the green on Wednesday afternoon as June CPI data came cooler-than-expected, raising hopes that Fed officials might rethink their stance on more rate hikes. The Dow Jones was up more than 100 points after reaching the highest level since November earlier in the session, as Salesforce, Goldman Sachs and Home Depot outperformed, adding nearly 2% each. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and basic materials sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2%, also the highest since April last year. Bank stocks advanced firmly, with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs adding 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Also, regional banks such as Comerica(5.1%) and Zions Bancorporation (4.9%). In the news, Domino's Pizza surged over 11% after revealing its deal with Uber Eats.
All major US stocks indexes were trading in the green on Wednesday afternoon as June CPI data came cooler-than-expected, raising hopes that Fed officials might rethink their stance on more rate hikes. The Dow Jones was up more than 100 points after reaching the highest level since November earlier in the session, as Salesforce, Goldman Sachs and Home Depot outperformed, adding nearly 2% each. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and basic materials sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2%, also the highest since April last year. Bank stocks advanced firmly, with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs adding 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Also, regional banks such as Comerica(5.1%) and Zions Bancorporation (4.9%). In the news, Domino's Pizza surged over 11% after revealing its deal with Uber Eats.Japanese Yen attempting fifth consecutive daily advance (first time since December)
USD/JPY plunge now approaching major support confluence- risk for price inflection
Resistance 140.10s, 140.93, 142.10/50 (key)- support 137.36/91, 136.15, 134.04
The Japanese Yen has continued to coil just below uptrend resistance with major event risk on tap into the close of the week. The focus is on a breakout of the monthly opening-range for guidance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/JPY short-term technical charts.
Initial resistance now eyed at the 75% parallel (blue slope currently ~140.10s) backed by the objective May high at 140.93. Ultimately, a breach / close above the weekly open / 61.8% retracement of the 2022 decline at 142.10/50 would be needed to mark resumption of the broader USD/JPY uptrend.

Bottom line: The USD/JPY plunge us approaching the first major technical support hurdle just below the 138-handle. From at trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch towards this key support zone – rallies should be limited to the weekly open IF price is heading lower on this stretch. I’ll publish an updated Japanese Yen Weekly Forecast once we get further clarity on the longer-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.

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US Futures Steady Ahead of Major Bank Earnings

US stock futures held steady on Friday after four-day winning streak on Wall Street as investors look ahead to earnings reports from major banks. Futures contracts tied to the three major indexes were all trading near breakeven. In regular trading on Thursday, the Dow rose 0.14%, the S&P 500 gained 0.85% and the Nasdaq Composite rallied 1.58%, with nine out of the 11 S&P sectors ending higher led to the upside by communication services, technology and consumer discretionary. Those gains came as the latest producer price index report showed inflation rose less than anticipated in June, adding to signs that US inflation is on a downward trend and raising hopes that the current tightening cycle is nearing the end. Investors now await earnings reports from big banks such as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citi on Friday for more clues on the economy. US consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan is also on deck.

Bitcoin Climbs as US Inflation Slows
Bitcoin broke above the $31,000 mark in mid-July, hitting its strongest levels in 13 months as signs that US inflation is on a downward trend raised hopes that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its current monetary policy tightening cycle. Latest data showed that US consumer and producer inflation rose less than anticipated in June, while the US labor market remained robust. The US central bank is still seen raising rates by 25 basis points in July, while traders scaled back bets of further rate increases this year. Market pricing also suggests that the Fed could start cutting rates next year. Optimism over the creation of spot bitcoin ETFs by major financial firms such as BlackRock also continued to bolster prices, though the US SEC has yet to approve applications.

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The greenback is approaching a make-or-break moment — at least as far as a closely watched technical indicator is concerned.

The Bloomberg Dollar Index has now surrendered more than 61.8% of its gains since May 2021, bringing it to one of the Fibonacci retracement levels popular among chart watchers. They tend to keep a close eye on these indicators to determine whether or not trends will extend or reverse.

What happens next is therefore crucial.

If the index remains below this point over the coming sessions, it would be a strong signal to traders that the currency’s losses are the beginning of a new longer-term downtrend, and not just an aberration.

The latest bout of weakness comes as the market now sees an end to a tightening spree that Federal Reserve officials begun communicating more than two years ago. The prospect is narrowing interest-rate differentials with other major currencies and weighing on the dollar.

This week, it dropped to the weakest level against euro and pound since early 2022. It’s even falling out of favor against the yen — where rates are still negative — with the cross falling to a two-month low.

The bearish signal seen in the chart of the Bloomberg Dollar Index could be soon validated elsewhere too. The ICE Dollar Index — a popular alternative to the BBDXY — stands just 0.6% higher than the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of a rally that kicked off in January 2021.

To be sure, options paint a more mixed picture. While long-term bets are supportive of the US currency’s prospects, sentiment over a one-month sentiment has reached its least bullish level since September 2020.

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USDJPY BULLISH WILL Go to 180 Yen
LONG
the Bank of Japan is unlikely to increase its ultra-loose policy rate until Governor Kuroda's term expires in the first quarter of 2023.

A break below 124is the start of bearish trend.

Technical: BULLISH
STRATEGY
BUY THE CORRECTION
Higher Highs
Higher Lows

Fundamentals:

See my previouse USDJPY trade ideas.All Tades are active, and a lot of fundamental explanations of USDJPY. Read them.Undestand them,then you can mae good trades.

Crude Oil Bearish Iran’s Growing Oil Production Boosting Up
SHORT

34minute Chart found its suppot . The corection was expected, as Japan Industrial Output Falls More than Initially Anticipated

BITCOIN WILL RISE HIGHER
LONG

GOLD STRONG BUY

Nasdaq100 US100 Bullish 21000 on Radar
LONG

EUR/USD re-targets 1.1000 post US-CPI
LONG

GBPUSD Bullish on Hot UK Inflation
LONG

XRP LONG 0.75$ and 1.15$ are on the Radar
LONG

GBPUSD Long Buyers to retain control
LONG

Litecoin Targeting Weekly Resistance
LONG

EUR/JPY Long A Break above creates more Buy Pressure
LONG

USDCHF BEARISH Meets monthly Low and Support
SHORT

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Week Ahead - July 17th

Next week, investors will focus on the earnings results from major US companies, such as Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, IBM, Netflix, Tesla, and Johnson & Johnson. Additionally, it will be interesting to monitor retail sales, industrial production, and housing data, including existing home sales, housing starts, and building permits. In other news, China is set to release Q2 GDP growth, retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investments. Markets will also be attentive to inflation rates in the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and South Africa. Furthermore, the central banks of Turkey and South Africa will make decisions regarding monetary policy, Australia will publish the unemployment rate, and the UK and Canada will release retail sales data.

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This trade is still open and active

Government Bond Yields Fall for 2nd Session

Government bond yields around the world fell for a second day on Tuesday, with the US 10-year Treasury note yield, seen as a proxy for global borrowing costs, retreating to 3.76%, a level not seen since late June. Investors are getting increasingly convinced that major central banks, and specially the Federal Reserve, will soon end their tightening campaign. Bets for a 25bps hike in the fed funds rate next week currently stand at 97% but investors remain divided on the need of further increases, with chances for a September increase currently standing at 12% and for November at 22%. Meanwhile, the ECB is also set to raise rates by 25bps again next week while there is just a 70% chance of a further rate rise in September. The Bank of England will decide on monetary policy in August only, but either a 25bps or a 50bps hike are seen as certain. On the other hand, traders are increasingly speculating the Bank of Japan could adjust its ultra loose monetary policy next week.

The yield on the German 10-year government bond fell to 2.4%, down from the four-month high of 2.679% reached on July 10, as signs of cooling inflation in the US increased speculation that the Federal Reserve is approaching the end of a series of significant interest rate hikes. Nevertheless, the European Central Bank is expected to persist with raising rates throughout the year, aiming for a deposit rate peak of 4% by year-end. However, a recent batch of weak economic data from across the region might prompt the central bank to revise its inflation forecasts in September, possibly leaving the deposit facility rate at 3.75%. Hawkish ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel expressed caution on Monday about further tightening moves in September, stating that "we will see what the data will tell us." In addition, his colleague Klaas Knot said monetary tightening beyond July’s meeting is anything but guaranteed.

Turkish Lira Weakens to Fresh Record Low

The Turkish lira weakened more than 2% to a fresh record low of 26.9 per USD, as both the central bank and state-run banks stopped supporting the currency ahead of the central bank monetary policy decision on Thursday. Most investors expect a 500bps increase in interest rates, although some market participants said the rise could be smaller. On June 22nd, the central bank of Turkey raised interest rates by 650 bps to 15%, marking a reversal from its previous ultra-loose and unorthodox monetary policy although the move fell short of meeting market expectations for a higher rate of 21%

Euro Hits Fresh 17-Month High

The euro strengthened its position above $1.12, reaching its highest level since February 2022, on the back of investor expectations that the European Central Bank will continue its rate-hike cycle to tackle inflation and bring it closer to the 2% target. In the Eurozone, inflation declined to a 17-month low of 5.5% in June, but the core rate remained stubbornly high at 5.4%, still close to the all-time high of 5.7% seen in March. Currently, the interest rates in the bloc stand at 3.5%, but traders anticipate rates peaking at 4% by the end of the year. However, a recent batch of weak economic data from across the region might prompt the central bank to revise its inflation forecasts in September, possibly leaving the deposit facility rate at 3.75%. Simultaneously, the recently released weaker-than-expected US inflation data has fueled speculations that the Federal Reserve is nearing the conclusion of its current policy tightening measures.

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Trade is open

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Dow Rises for 11th Session

The Dow Jones added nearly 100 points to book an 11th straight session of gains on Monday, with Chevron among the top performers (1.8%) after reporting better-than-expected earnings. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 was up about 0.3%, led by a nearly 1.5% gain for the energy sector, namely shares of Halliburton (2.5%), as oil prices touched a three-month high. On the other hand, the Nasdaq failed to hold early gains and was down about 0.2%, with Amazon (-1.2%) and Tesla (-0.7%) weighing. Investors brace for the Fed's monetary policy decision on Wednesday, with another 25bps increase in the fed funds rate already priced in, although traders will be looking for any clues on whether the Fed will stop the tightening cycle or believes further increases are still necessary. Meanwhile, the earnings season continues with about 40% of the Dow and 30% of the S&P 500 giving their financial updates during the week, including Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, GE, 3M, General Motors, Boeing and Amazon.

US Private Sector Growth Slows to 5-Month Low
The S&P Global US Composite PMI declined to 52.0 in July 2023, down from 53.2 the previous month, as shown in a preliminary estimate. The latest reading indicated the softest pace of expansion in private sector business activity since February, with service activity growth easing to a five-month low, and manufacturing output levels remaining relatively unchanged. Total new orders rose the least since April, amid reports of constraints on client spending, including higher interest rates, while the rate of job creation was only marginal, marking the weakest level since January. On the price front, input prices increased the least since October 2020, while the rate of output charge inflation picked up as firms sought to pass through higher costs and increased interest rate payments to customers. Finally, business confidence dipped to the lowest level so far this year.

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masdaq bullish after FOMC , I bouht more nowmy target stays at 21000
Next FED meeting in nov. december is much more important..

long dow jones long rty long indices and stocks

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Trade open
Long
VIX DOWN DXY DOWN

The US economy grew 2.4% GDP in Q2
US Futures Extend Gains after Upbeat GDP Growth
US stock futures extended gains on Thursday, with contracts on the Dow Jones jumping about 170 points, S&P 500 gaining 0.9% and the Nasdaq 100 up 1.6% as investors cheered fresh data and corporate earnings results. The US economy grew 2.4% GDP in Q2, surpassing market expectations of 1.8% expansion in a sign the US economy remains resilient despite high-interest rates. Meanwhile, Meta Platforms surged about 10% in premarket trading after reporting strong earnings and profit and a better-than-expected forecast for the current period. Comcast jumped over 2.5% after earnings and revenue came higher than anticipated and McDonald's was up about 1.3% after sales topped forecasts. Mastercard was also in the green (0.6%) after delivering strong revenue and earnings growth. Intel, Ford and T-Mobile are due to report today after the closing bell.

US Initial Jobless Claims Fall to 5-Month Low

US GDP Grows at a Stronger 2.4%

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US Stocks on Track to End July More than 3% Higher

DaveBrascoFX

youtube.com/@DavyBrasco-Official-Channel/videos

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DaveBrascoFX

youtube.com/@DavyBrasco-Official-Channel/videos

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