May final wake up call for traders (DOW U30 Downtrend Analysis)
ที่อัปเดต:
Hello traders, it's morning in my timezone. Hope you guys enjoyed your holiday on Monday, i certainly had my fair share.
It's important to have an equal work-life balance, it's also important to spend time with your love ones, especially your family.
We as traders be it retail or professional spend most of our mental capacity on our trades, i mean who doesn't? It's money, right?
I had suffered a few burn outs when i started trading 8 years ago, you guys had no idea how much mental stress i had to endure during that period, it was really horrible.
I am surprised by how many people actually agree with my previous ideal, you guys are god-sent and blessed to have you guys around.
Today i will be sharing with you my thoughts beyond technical analysis.
Last day of the month, are you guys ready
Abstract from the previous post
1) Oil prices heading up due to Shanghai's reopening
Yeap, it has happened, financial news site are headlining this piece of news.
But...
European stocks open higher on Monday, as manufacturing and production bottleneck eases.
Logically, yes, but my favourite line comes in again... for how long?
Now, Beijing's lockdown proved to have severe economical impact due to strains on manufacturing, with the re-opening, new demands for supply together with existing demands before the re-opening will definitely cause a bottleneck, and will definitely take some time to clear or resume back to normal.
Remember, China re-opening, higher demand for oil, oil prices increase.
Production and manufacturing cost will definitely be higher, common sense right?
Resulting in higher cost being passed down to businesses and lastly to the consumers *Hint*.... inflation
No doubt China's decision always have an economical impact globally, such impact will make businesses and consumers realise in time to come.
Negative on growth? Yeap.
2) Inflation, inflation, inflation.
*NEWS HEADLINE THAT JUST CAME IN*
POTUS is meeting with FED's chairman to "discuss" economy as inflation BITES.
Glad that the big man realised that inflation is still around, and what does that translate to?
Inflation is still happening, so, please be careful of the beautiful jump up last week, if you missed it, please don't jump into the party late, you will end up with a very nasty surprise.
What are my thoughts? Simple, FED announced that they MIGHT CONSIDER September's hike pause, with inflation is still going on and up, and a member of the FED party just announced that he wishes to continue rate hikes till inflation is at a certain level, i think we are going to end up with another nasty shock when FED backs out again (Oh yes, they did it before, don't be surprised if they were to do it again) (and again)...
3) Russia-Ukraine tension
Russia just announced that they will be cutting off gas supply to the Netherlands, reason being payments must be made in Roubles.
Hmm... No surprise right? Gas prices are going to get crazier due to demand.
Now traders, you tell me, if you were to break down the current market events logically, how well is the economy actually improving? With one country that everyone is so reliant on that will be passing higher production cost to business and consumers, and another that is the third largest supplier of oil in the world making demands.
I am sure some of you may feel that i am actually negative on the economy, well, because it is, don't be fooled.
Some of your may ponder when will the economy start improving. Well... move backwards on the world's event starting this year, and you will get your answer.
Still guessing?
The war has to end first, resulting in lower prices for oil, followed by lowered cost of manufacturing and production in china due to lowered cost of production.
Traders, market is about to open in a few hours, choose your positions correctly, and most importantly, do not follow blindly.
Feel free to leave your opinions, stay safe!
It's important to have an equal work-life balance, it's also important to spend time with your love ones, especially your family.
We as traders be it retail or professional spend most of our mental capacity on our trades, i mean who doesn't? It's money, right?
I had suffered a few burn outs when i started trading 8 years ago, you guys had no idea how much mental stress i had to endure during that period, it was really horrible.
I am surprised by how many people actually agree with my previous ideal, you guys are god-sent and blessed to have you guys around.
Today i will be sharing with you my thoughts beyond technical analysis.
Last day of the month, are you guys ready
Abstract from the previous post
1) Oil prices heading up due to Shanghai's reopening
Yeap, it has happened, financial news site are headlining this piece of news.
But...
European stocks open higher on Monday, as manufacturing and production bottleneck eases.
Logically, yes, but my favourite line comes in again... for how long?
Now, Beijing's lockdown proved to have severe economical impact due to strains on manufacturing, with the re-opening, new demands for supply together with existing demands before the re-opening will definitely cause a bottleneck, and will definitely take some time to clear or resume back to normal.
Remember, China re-opening, higher demand for oil, oil prices increase.
Production and manufacturing cost will definitely be higher, common sense right?
Resulting in higher cost being passed down to businesses and lastly to the consumers *Hint*.... inflation
No doubt China's decision always have an economical impact globally, such impact will make businesses and consumers realise in time to come.
Negative on growth? Yeap.
2) Inflation, inflation, inflation.
*NEWS HEADLINE THAT JUST CAME IN*
POTUS is meeting with FED's chairman to "discuss" economy as inflation BITES.
Glad that the big man realised that inflation is still around, and what does that translate to?
Inflation is still happening, so, please be careful of the beautiful jump up last week, if you missed it, please don't jump into the party late, you will end up with a very nasty surprise.
What are my thoughts? Simple, FED announced that they MIGHT CONSIDER September's hike pause, with inflation is still going on and up, and a member of the FED party just announced that he wishes to continue rate hikes till inflation is at a certain level, i think we are going to end up with another nasty shock when FED backs out again (Oh yes, they did it before, don't be surprised if they were to do it again) (and again)...
3) Russia-Ukraine tension
Russia just announced that they will be cutting off gas supply to the Netherlands, reason being payments must be made in Roubles.
Hmm... No surprise right? Gas prices are going to get crazier due to demand.
Now traders, you tell me, if you were to break down the current market events logically, how well is the economy actually improving? With one country that everyone is so reliant on that will be passing higher production cost to business and consumers, and another that is the third largest supplier of oil in the world making demands.
I am sure some of you may feel that i am actually negative on the economy, well, because it is, don't be fooled.
Some of your may ponder when will the economy start improving. Well... move backwards on the world's event starting this year, and you will get your answer.
Still guessing?
The war has to end first, resulting in lower prices for oil, followed by lowered cost of manufacturing and production in china due to lowered cost of production.
Traders, market is about to open in a few hours, choose your positions correctly, and most importantly, do not follow blindly.
Feel free to leave your opinions, stay safe!
บันทึกช่วยจำ
I made a mistake in my second last paragraph, *The war has to end first, resulting in lower prices for oil , followed by lowered cost of manufacturing and production in china due to lowered cost of ENERGY PRICES*
Cheers everyone
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