US 10Y TREASURY: surprised by jobs data

7 ต.ค.

The major macro news during the previous week were posted nonfarm and unemployment figures in the US for September. The nonfarm payrolls significantly beated market expectation, by reaching the figure of 254K, while unemployment rate dropped to the level of 4,1% from 4,2% during August. The markets are now convinced that the Fed will slow down rate cuts till the end of this year to 25 bps, considering the high resilience of the US economy. Previously, markets were pricing another 50bps cuts. The US yields adjusted accordingly to new expectations. The 10Y US benchmark was moving around 3,80 during the week, but Friday's jobs data pushed the yields to the higher grounds, ending the week at level of 3,96. Yields were testing the level of 4% previously.

It could be expected that the markets will spend a week ahead by digesting the jobs data, in which sense, the 4,0% level could be tested during the week. At this moment, there is no indication that yields could move to the higher grounds. On the opposite side, there could be some relaxation, at least to the level of 3,9%.