Nasdaq US100 Definitly Bullish will Go to 23000-25000,because...
ที่อัปเดต:
I have many open and long positions in Nasdaq: See Chart I have marked my current positions and also future Entries....
Use lower TF only for long setups. Stop to listen to chats and Social Media to other so called Experts:If THEY really tade, whyy are they 99% of time wrong?
And someone who is for hours in the chats and yt ans social media, will never focus closely and seriously on trades. So stop listening to the scams,
Ok here we go. Watch the chart above. We are on Long bullish trend eekly minthly daily.:
Nowon lowertf you wanna take only Bullish trends.ONLY!
Stop going shorts:WHY? Cuz Beartrap. The speculators wanna take your money, so they gonna make you think its falling, crashing.
A correction is not a crash. Understand this. If you dont understand, then you are not a trader. Look for another busness oppurtunity.Trading ill be wring for ya.
So the market came down last week because of Gap filling.
You should understand the philosophy of the Gap filling.
Again stop listening to the scam out there, Do your home works. Analyse your mistakes of the last week.An breath.Relax.
Ok we have cup and handle. The current trend is bullish, the current pullback is natural and healthy, as I mentioned on my previouse NAsdaq analysis and trading ideas. Go there, read the updates and comments I put everyday below the charts,and studey them. My updates brings you money. Be thankful that I am commenting my ideas, you can only take benfit of it.
My Tading plans are based on logic,facts, charts, and objective. NO EGO NO EMOTIONS NO FEELINGS: Fundamentaly are bullish, summer volatility is down ,ut now rising, and the chart is bullish, it means now big traders coming back from holdiay and they will buy Nasdaq massively.Also during the summer pause the volume was extremely high. I have learned my trading by legends like Anton Kreil. If you dont kno who he is, search.... good.
Lower tF only to time for bullish setups.
Ignore bears, news. They all are old.Made by Market manipulators. Instead wake up and use Brain and logic.
Bullish Facts and Fundamentals:
Michigan Consumer Confidence Falls In August, But Beats Expectations: Declining Inflation, Resilient Job Market Key Factors
US Inflation Metrics Diverge, Complicating Outlook for Cooldown
Strong services costs lift US producer prices; inflation expectations dip
US stocks finished mixed on Friday, as investors were digesting fresh inflation data and assessing the future path of the Federal Reserves. The Dow Jones closed 105 points higher, supported by gains from Chevron (+2%) and Merck & Co (+1.8%). Meanwhile, the S&P 500 edged lower by 0.1% and the Nasdaq lost nearly 0.7% pulled down by a sell-off in shares of AMD (-2.4%), Nvidia (-3.6%) and Micron (-1.6%). Producer prices, which tracks the price wholesalers pay for raw goods, rose 0.3% on the month, raising bets the Fed will need to keep rates higher for longer. Yesterday, both headline and core consumer inflation came below forecasts, but remained well above the Fed's 2% target. At the same time, San Francisco President Mary Daly noted that the Fed has more work to do to bring inflation down. On the week, the Dow dipped 0.1%, while the S&P 500 lost 0.7% and the Nasdaq sank 1.8%, a second consecutive week of losses.
The Dow Jones attempted gains while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell by 0.3% and 1%, respectively, after higher-than-expected producer inflation prints increased bets the Fed will need to keep rates higher for longer. Producer prices rose 0.3% on the month, led by a rebound in services cost. Yesterday, both headline and core consumer inflation came below forecasts, but remained well above the Fed's 2% target. At the same time, San Francisco President Mary Daly noted that the Fed has more work to do to bring inflation down. Traders now see a nearly 87% chance the central bank will leave interest rates steady next month, below 90% before the PPI release, and the odds for a 25bps hike in November have been rising this week and currently stand at about 29%. The tech and communication services sectors were the worst performers. On the week, the Dow is up 0.5% so far, while the S&P 500 lost 0.4% and the Nasdaq sank 2%, a second consecutive week of losses.
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Jul 24Comment:
Dow Rises for 11th Session
The Dow Jones added nearly 100 points to book an 11th straight session of gains on Monday, with Chevron among the top performers (1.8%) after reporting better-than-expected earnings. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 was up about 0.3%, led by a nearly 1.5% gain for the energy sector, namely shares of Halliburton (2.5%), as oil prices touched a three-month high. On the other hand, the Nasdaq failed to hold early gains and was down about 0.2%, with Amazon (-1.2%) and Tesla (-0.7%) weighing. Investors brace for the Fed's monetary policy decision on Wednesday, with another 25bps increase in the fed funds rate already priced in, although traders will be looking for any clues on whether the Fed will stop the tightening cycle or believes further increases are still necessary. Meanwhile, the earnings season continues with about 40% of the Dow and 30% of the S&P 500 giving their financial updates during the week, including Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, GE, 3M, General Motors, Boeing and Amazon.
US Private Sector Growth Slows to 5-Month Low
The S&P Global US Composite PMI declined to 52.0 in July 2023, down from 53.2 the previous month, as shown in a preliminary estimate. The latest reading indicated the softest pace of expansion in private sector business activity since February, with service activity growth easing to a five-month low, and manufacturing output levels remaining relatively unchanged. Total new orders rose the least since April, amid reports of constraints on client spending, including higher interest rates, while the rate of job creation was only marginal, marking the weakest level since January. On the price front, input prices increased the least since October 2020, while the rate of output charge inflation picked up as firms sought to pass through higher costs and increased interest rate payments to customers. Finally, business confidence dipped to the lowest level so far this year.
Jul 26
Comment:
masdaq bullish after FOMC , I bouht more nowmy target stays at 21000
Next FED meeting in nov. december is much more important..
Jul 26
Comment:
masdaq bullish after FOMC , I bouht more nowmy target stays at 21000
Next FED meeting in nov. december is much more important..
long dow jones long rty long indices and stocks
Jul 26
Comment:
masdaq bullish after FOMC , I bouht more nowmy target stays at 21000
Next FED meeting in nov. december is much more important..
long dow jones long rty long indices and stocks
Jul 27
Comment:
Trade open
Long
VIX DOWN DXY DOWN
The US economy grew 2.4% GDP in Q2
US Futures Extend Gains after Upbeat GDP Growth
US stock futures extended gains on Thursday, with contracts on the Dow Jones jumping about 170 points, S&P 500 gaining 0.9% and the Nasdaq 100 up 1.6% as investors cheered fresh data and corporate earnings results. The US economy grew 2.4% GDP in Q2, surpassing market expectations of 1.8% expansion in a sign the US economy remains resilient despite high-interest rates. Meanwhile, Meta Platforms surged about 10% in premarket trading after reporting strong earnings and profit and a better-than-expected forecast for the current period. Comcast jumped over 2.5% after earnings and revenue came higher than anticipated and McDonald's was up about 1.3% after sales topped forecasts. Mastercard was also in the green (0.6%) after delivering strong revenue and earnings growth. Intel, Ford and T-Mobile are due to report today after the closing bell.
US Initial Jobless Claims Fall to 5-Month Low
US GDP Grows at a Stronger 2.4%
Jul 28
Comment:
trade open looking for 15889 next...See the chart
delta bullish sentiment bullish
bearish moves can be cuased by BOJ comments that will manipulate US Yiels 10years..like it happened to usdyen yesterday...the marketmaker is robust and fighting back...
Watch closely us10y yield and boj. FED losing power...
Jul 31
Comment:
US Stocks on Track to End July More than 3% Higher
Aug 1
Comment:
Trade open, Inside Day, Correction probably(30%)to 15500 are(Zone)
Trend Bullish
I am still long and use oppurtunities to increase more longs
Trade with the Trend.
Aug 1
Comment:
Ok folks its becoming seriouse JOLTS Job Openings 42.6, ISM 46.4 not too bad...tommorrow ADP, then CPI and non farm payrol:We are in an Inside session. Possible pullbacks to the sweeps: 15631; 15554;15522;15400; BELOW 15400 resting sweep stops and extreme buy pressure.. Monitor 1 minute trend, use bullish setups only if reversal confirmed....
In case break up , we go to 16050,16250,16450
Aug 7
Comment:
Tradeplan 7.august to 11 Auust
wednesday Bond aution
Thurseday CPI
Trend Bullish
Drop pullback Buy at picadelli point(Picadelli August Buy points oly for my subscribers)
Buy2: pICADELI SUPPORT ZONE AT 15...
Buy 3zone Power buy at picadelu 15...
Profit taking at 1.....
Aug 8
Comment:
New Buy Signal
US Credit Card Markets Head Back to Normal after Pandemic Pause
Aug 10
Comment:
Nasdaq SP500 Dow Reversal
Trend up US 10-Year Treasury Auction Sees Decent Demand Despite Yield Under 4%
DCY down
Oil UP
Nasdaq Bullish
Dow Bullish
RTY Bullish
SP500 Bullish
Wait for CPI today. Possible Correction(I hope so that the makrket goes down first to 15000-14500) That is exactly the Gap Fill ,before Nasdaq Flies to 15850 and 16250 2nd Gap FILL)...So ge ready ,wait and watch closely the supports and resistances,better with Divergenes. In the chats and social media a lot of amateur traders are nervouse, becuz no trading experiences.So stop listening to them...Chats will cost you money. Instead relax,wait,have patience till we get the buy zones. Read comments above. I mentioned already Picadelli Points.
22 hours ago
Comment:
Trend bullish
cpi less than expected
pmi moderate expected
FED rates unchanged
DOUBLE BOTTOM
Stocha bullish again
delta bullish
Vuy at 1505-15250 zone
GAP filled
Bullish gap next to fill: 15850-19050
I bought massively at 15090 more nasdaqs
The same bias is relevant for RTY DO JONES and indices
6 hours ago
Comment:
Perfect!Gap filling i over. The bear tap wants you to jump into short selling before it rises higher..Avoide bear traps. I baought today more nasdaq at 1477514995 again. The market will go higher . Next week FOMC. Meeting. Fundamentals are bullish.Infalition going don.
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Next week, investors will eagerly follow the FOMC minutes release for additional insights into the Fed's plans for the remainder of the year. In the US, retail sales and industrial production will also be in the spotlight. Elsewhere, the upcoming week is poised to bring a flurry of significant economic releases, including China industrial production and retail sales; GDP and inflation for the Eurozone; Japan GDP growth and inflation; Germany economic sentiment; wholesale and consumer prices for India; inflation, unemployment and retail sales for the UK; Canada CPI; Australia unemployment data; and interest rate decisions from Norway, the Philippines and New Zealand.Michigan Consumer Confidence Falls In August, But Beats Expectations: Declining Inflation, Resilient Job Market Key Factors
6 hours ago
Comment:
Perfect!Gap filling i over. The bear tap wants you to jump into short selling before it rises higher..Avoide bear traps. I baought today more nasdaq at 1477514995 again. The market will go higher . Next week FOMC. Meeting. Fundamentals are bullish.Infalition going don.
Next week, investors will eagerly follow the FOMC minutes release for additional insights into the Fed's plans for the remainder of the year. In the US, retail sales and industrial production will also be in the spotlight. Elsewhere, the upcoming week is poised to bring a flurry of significant economic releases, including China industrial production and retail sales; GDP and inflation for the Eurozone; Japan GDP growth and inflation; Germany economic sentiment; wholesale and consumer prices for India; inflation, unemployment and retail sales for the UK; Canada CPI; Australia unemployment data; and interest rate decisions from Norway, the Philippines and New Zealand.
Michigan Consumer Confidence Falls In August, But Beats Expectations: Declining Inflation, Resilient Job Market Key Factors
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TO STUDYclick on the chart to study how we came to this price of today
US100 NASDAQ100 Bullish will go to 22000,but,,
Bullish
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YES TREND IS BULLISHand yes nasdaq will go higher
and no I will ignore all scammers
and yes I help only seriouse traders
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Bitcoin is trading in tandem with stocksThe Bitcoin price forecast for the next 30 days is a projection based on the positive/negative trends in the past 30 days.
Bitcoin price today is $ 29,432 with a 24-hour trading volume of $ 31.39B, market cap of $ 572.24B, and market dominance of 48.22%. The BTC price increased 0.02% in the last 24 hours.
Bitcoin reached its highest price on Nov 10, 2021 when it was trading at its all-time high of $ 68,770, while Bitcoin's lowest price was recorded on Jul 17, 2010 when it was trading at its all-time low of $ 0.050000. The lowest price since it's ATH was $ 15,599 (cycle low). The highest BTC price since the last cycle low was $ 31,804 (cycle high). The Bitcoin price prediction sentiment is currently neutral, while Fear & Greed Index is showing 54 (Neutral).
Bitcoin's current circulating supply is 19.44M BTC out of max supply of 21.00M BTC. The current yearly supply inflation rate is 1.69% meaning 323,367 BTC were created in the last year. In terms of market cap, Bitcoin is currently ranked #1 in the Proof-of-Work Coins sector and ranked #1 in the Layer 1 sector.
Highlights
Price has increased by 22% in the last 1 year
Outperformed 86% of the top 100 crypto assets in 1 year
Outperformed Ethereum
Trading above the 200-day simple moving average
Has high liquidity based on its market cap
Trading on Binance
Trading with Euro
Yearly inflation rate is 1.69%
Risk Analysis
Only 13 green days in the last 30 days (43%)
Down -57% from all-time high
Bitcoin is predicted to rise by 11.36% and reach $ 32,757 by August 17, 2023. According to our technical indicators, the current sentiment is Neutral while the Fear & Greed Index is showing 54 (Neutral). Bitcoin recorded 13/30 (43%) green days with 1.69% price volatility over the last 30 days. Based on our Bitcoin forecast, it's now a good time to buy Bitcoin.
The Bitcoin price prediction for 2025 is currently between $ 39,546 on the lower end and $ 163,056 on the high end. Compared to today’s price, Bitcoin could gain 454.01% by 2025 if BTC reaches the upper price target.
Based on data from August 13, 2023 at 01:40, the general Bitcoin price prediction sentiment is neutral , with 16 technical analysis indicators signaling bullish signals, and 13 signaling bearish signals.
Based on our technical indicators, Bitcoin's 200-day SMA will rise in the next month and will hit $ 28,610 by Sep 11, 2023. Bitcoin's short-term 50-Day SMA is estimated to hit $ 32,184 by Sep 11, 2023.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum oscillator is a popular indicator that signals whether a cryptocurrency is oversold (below 30) or overbought (above 70). Currently, the RSI value is at 47.62, which indicates that the BTC market is in a neutral position.
Over the past 7 days, Bitcoin price was most positively correlated with the price of IOTA (MIOTA), OKB (OKB), Dash (DASH), Cardano (ADA) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and most negatively correlated with the price of TRON (TRX), Maker (MKR), EOS (EOS), Bitcoin (BTC) and Bitcoin (BTC).
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Bitcoin's Tight Correlation With Nasdaq-SPX Ratio Muddies Safe-Haven NarrativeBitcoin,rose in tandem with the Nasdaq to S&P 500, or NDX/SPX, ratio, a sign the rally was partly, if not mainly, driven by improved risk appetite stemming from hopes for an early Federal Reserve pivot in favor of liquidity-boosting rate cuts.
The NDX/SPX ratio measures the relative difference in valuation between technology stocks represented in the Nasdaq 100 and a basket of broader industry stocks from the S&P 500. The 90-day correlation coefficient between bitcoin and the NDX/SPX ratio rose from 0.81 to 0.90, signaling the strongest positive relationship between the two assets since June 2022. At press time, the correlation coefficient stood at 0.89. The positive correlation means on days when the ratio rises, bitcoin is more likely to do the same and vice versa.
Tech stocks tend to be more sensitive to interest-rate expectations than the broader market. Thus a rising ratio is often equated with dovish Fed expectations and improved investor risk appetite that often percolates into other assets like cryptocurrencies, as observed in 2020 and early 2021. A falling ratio represents a sentiment against risky assets.
The correlation between bitcoin and the NDX/SPX ratio was consistently positive during the 2022 bear market and between May 2020 and March 2021, when the cryptocurrency rallied nearly tenfold to $60,000.
If that's not enough, both have been rallying in lockstep since early January. While bitcoin has risen nearly 70% this year, the ratio is up 11.26%.
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Bitcoin’s Correlation With S&P 500, Nasdaq Hits Highest Level Since July 2020The correlation between Bitcoin and two major equity indices, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, surged to an 18-month high, according to new research.
Historically, Bitcoin has maintained a relatively low correlation to traditional asset classes, including equity indices and commodities like gold.
However, in recent weeks, the leading cryptocurrency's correlation to two major indices—the S&P 500 and Nasdaq—has been on the rise.
However, there are a few factors that can help explain why Bitcoin's correlation might have been positive with these markets during certain periods:
Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite: Bitcoin, as a relatively new and highly volatile asset, can be influenced by similar market sentiment and risk appetite as traditional markets. When investors are optimistic about the economy and financial markets, they may be more willing to invest in riskier assets like Bitcoin, leading to a positive correlation.
Institutional Involvement: The increasing involvement of institutional investors in both traditional markets and the cryptocurrency space can lead to correlated price movements. If large institutional players start allocating funds to both stocks and Bitcoin, it can create a positive correlation as these players rebalance their portfolios.
Global Economic Factors: Major global economic events, such as monetary policy decisions by central banks, geopolitical tensions, and economic indicators, can impact both traditional markets and Bitcoin. When these events affect the broader economy, they may impact both stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Liquidity and Speculation: During times of high liquidity in the markets, where investors are looking for speculative opportunities, Bitcoin can become part of that speculation. When liquidity is ample, correlations between various assets can increase.
Media and Information: News and media coverage can influence investor behavior across different markets. If there is significant coverage or attention on both traditional markets and Bitcoin simultaneously, it can lead to coordinated moves.
Certainly, here are a few additional points to consider regarding the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional financial markets, specifically the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and the technology sector:
Safe-Haven Asset Perception: While Bitcoin is often referred to as "digital gold" and considered a store of value by some investors, it may exhibit positive correlation with traditional markets during periods of economic uncertainty or market turmoil. If investors perceive Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset similar to gold, it could see increased demand when traditional markets are under stress.
Macro Trends and Tech Influence: The technology sector, particularly in the NASDAQ, has been a significant driver of economic growth and innovation. If Bitcoin is seen as a part of this technological innovation and if both the technology sector and Bitcoin are influenced by similar macro trends (e.g., advancements in blockchain technology, digitalization, fintech), this could lead to positive correlation.
Market Evolution: The cryptocurrency market has been evolving, with more mature market structures, increased adoption, and growing integration with traditional finance. This could lead to tighter correlations as market participants become more sophisticated and interconnected, using similar strategies and reacting to common macroeconomic factors.
Global Liquidity: The increasing prevalence of global liquidity injections by central banks can impact both traditional markets and Bitcoin. If central banks take actions that impact liquidity in the financial system, it can lead to coordinated movements in various asset classes, including stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Investor Behavior: Speculative behavior and investor sentiment can drive correlations. If there's a speculative "bubble" mentality, where investors are seeking quick gains across different assets, this can lead to correlated movements as capital flows into multiple markets simultaneously.
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Further CorrelationsIOTA is a cryptocurrency project that focuses on enabling the Internet of Things (IoT) by providing a secure and scalable infrastructure for machine-to-machine communication and transactions. The project aims to solve some of the challenges related to IoT, such as data integrity, scalability, and transaction fees.
The NASDAQ is a major stock exchange in the United States, known for listing many technology companies, particularly in the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite Index. The NASDAQ Composite includes a wide range of technology-related companies, such as software, hardware, internet, and other tech-centric businesses.
Regarding the correlation between IOTA (MIOTA) and the NASDAQ or tech sector, it's important to note that cryptocurrency prices, including IOTA, can be influenced by a variety of factors, some of which may be similar to those impacting traditional tech stocks on the NASDAQ. These factors can include market sentiment, technological developments, regulatory news, and overall trends in the technology sector.
However, the correlation between a specific cryptocurrency like IOTA and the NASDAQ, or any particular stock market index, can vary over time and might depend on the specific market conditions, adoption of IOTA in IoT applications, investor interest, and other factors.
Tech stocks, also known as technology stocks, represent shares in companies operating in the technology sector. These companies are often involved in various aspects of technology, including software development, hardware manufacturing, internet services, semiconductors, telecommunications, and other related fields. Traditional tech stocks typically refer to established companies in the technology sector, some of which are listed on stock exchanges like the NASDAQ.
Here's how traditional tech stocks can influence cryptocurrencies like IOTA:
Market Sentiment: Positive or negative sentiment in the broader technology sector can impact investor sentiment across various technology-related assets, including cryptocurrencies like IOTA. If there's positive news or strong performance in tech stocks, it can create a favorable environment for risk-taking, potentially leading to increased investment in cryptocurrencies. Conversely, if there's negative sentiment or a downturn in tech stocks, it might lead to more cautious investor behavior, affecting cryptocurrencies as well.
Investor Overlap: Many investors who are interested in tech stocks may also be interested in cryptocurrencies due to the technological innovation aspect. If tech stocks perform well, it can attract attention to the broader technology theme, leading some investors to explore the cryptocurrency space, including projects like IOTA.
Institutional Participation: As institutional investors, including hedge funds and investment firms, enter the cryptocurrency market, their investment decisions can be influenced by movements in traditional markets. If tech-focused institutional investors have exposure to both tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, their actions in the stock market could potentially impact their views on cryptocurrencies like IOTA.
Risk-On/Risk-Off Dynamics: During periods of increased risk appetite (risk-on), investors might be more willing to explore riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies. Conversely, during risk-off periods, where investors seek safer assets, the interest in riskier assets like cryptocurrencies might decrease. Traditional tech stocks can be part of this risk-on/risk-off dynamic, influencing investor behavior.
Overall Market Trends: If there's a broader trend of optimism or pessimism in the overall stock market, it can spill over into the cryptocurrency market. Investors often assess the macroeconomic environment when making investment decisions across various asset classes, which can lead to correlated movements.
It's important to note that while these are some potential ways traditional tech stocks can influence IOTA and the broader cryptocurrency market, correlations are complex and can change based on various factors. Market participants, news events, technological advancements, regulatory developments, and broader economic trends all play a role in shaping the relationship between tech stocks and cryptocurrencies.
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Next Week Nasdaq Crypzo BullishBonds down
Bond Market Sees No End to Tumult as Fed Casts a Hawkish Shadow
The rise in long-dated yields has been driven by the hawkish message from the Fed,
In the coming week, traders will scour the release of the minutes from the July 25-26 FOMC meeting for clues on where policymakers see rates heading and any diverging views between them.
Minutes of the July 25-26 FOMC meeting, to be released Aug. 16, will show that a majority of Fed officials were encouraged by progress on disinflation, but not yet convinced the rate-hike cycle is over.”
There are still a whole host of events that could stall these positive market returns, including continuing inflation, perception of credit quality of US government debt, skyrocketing US budget deficits, political instability in the world and more
Aug. 16: MBA Mortgage Applications; building permits; housing starts; industrial production; FOMC meeting minutes
Aug. 17: Jobless claims; Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook; Leading Index
Aug. 17: 4- and 8-week bills
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Nasdaq US100 Strong Bullish Gap Up Open to 23000
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China 10Y Bond Yield Hits 51-week Lowบันทึกช่วยจำ
DXY downOil UP
Nasdaq,Dow,RTY AND Tech bullish
Source: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data
Consumers’ Inflation Expectations Decline at all Horizons, Expectations about Household Financial Situation Improve
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the July 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations declined at the short-, medium-, and longer-term horizons. Year-ahead price growth expectations for food, medical care, and rent declined to their lowest levels since at least early 2021. Labor market expectations strengthened, while households’ perceptions about their current financial situations and expectations for the future improved.
The main findings from the July 2023 Survey are:
Inflation
Median inflation expectations declined across all three horizons, falling from 3.8% to 3.5% at the one-year-ahead horizon and from 3.0% to 2.9% at both the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons.The decline at the one-year-ahead horizon was broad based across demographic groups and the July reading is the lowest since April 2021. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all three horizons.
Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one-year-ahead horizon and increased slightly at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons.
Median home price growth expectations decreased from 2.9% in June to 2.8% in July, remaining well above the series 12-month trailing average of 2.0%.
Median year-ahead expected price changes declined for all commodities: by 0.2 percentage point for gas (to 4.5%), 0.1 percentage point for food (to 5.2%), 0.9 percentage point for medical care (to 8.4%), 0.3 percentage point for the cost of a college education (to 8.0%), and 0.4 percentage point for rent (to 9.0%). The current readings for food, medical care, and rent are the lowest since September 2020, November 2020, and January 2021, respectively.
Labor Market
Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 2.8%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.8% to 3.0% since September 2021.
Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 36.7%, the lowest reading since April 2022.
The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 11.8%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months decreased by 1.9 percentage point, to 17.0%, its lowest reading since March 2021. The decrease in the average quit probability was broad based across demographic groups.
The mean perceived probability of finding a job (if one’s current job was lost) increased from 55.3% in June to 55.8% in July.
Household Finance
Median expected growth in household income was unchanged at 3.2% in July and remains below the series 12-month trailing average of 3.6%.
Median household spending growth expectations increased from 5.2% in June to 5.4% in July, but remains well below its 12-month trailing average of 6.1%.
Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago and expectations about credit access a year from now were largely unchanged, with a slight deterioration in current perceptions and a slight improvement in year-ahead expectations.
The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 11.7% in July.
The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes (at current income level) remained unchanged at 4.3%.
Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt decreased from 10.0% in June to 9.7% in July.
The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 1.1 percentage points to 30.9%.
Perceptions about households’ current financial situations improved in July with more respondents reporting being better off than a year ago and fewer respondents reporting being worse off. Similarly, year-ahead expectations improved with fewer respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now and more respondents expecting to be better off. The share expecting to be better off a year from now is the highest since September 2021.
The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.8 percentage points to 37.1%.
Bitcoin started its bullish trend continuation based on buying pressure of the tech industry.
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CURRENCYCOM:US100 Nasdaq down target to 14500Gap Fill
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NQ nEXT BUY POSITION below 14475 The market will turn if not on tuesday,but on ednesday. Currently They wanna fil Gap down around 14200-14575, before the market rises higher to 15850. If it doesnt happen this week, next monday we will have explosive GAP UP and bullish move for the next 3 weeksบันทึกช่วยจำ
++++Be careful Attention! VERY IMPORTANT+++++10Y Bonds US are testing 15 years Highest High. On day and weekly the trend is bullish. If it breaks that high and closes above 4,5 then the bonds US10Y will rise to 4,70%: At that level USDJPY; NASDAQ,RTY SP500, USD will break own nearly to cash and it will cause a sudden death or Sudden Crsh. So watch closely that maket,
++++iT IS VERY VERY IMPORTANT+++ Please dont trade blindly. And watch the markets and their intermarket relations.
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nasdaq beaish on lower tf, most important day wednesday and friay, be careful of the bull traps,false bulls until we reach the low of the gap below 14500.Wait for onfirmation.. The gap is in the middle of 2022 bearish move...So have patience until getting signals on all f.Intermarket confirmation:Today we have seen nasdaq was rising but RTY was short. Ususlly RTY follows NQ. also we had falling dxy and falling oil prices. The reason is strong Bods 10y . Ususally Oil is benefitting of falling dxy, That is confirmaing that traders are trying to compensate their losses in NQ, that confirms the fast move of NQ Up and down. On wednesafternoon we will test the markets reaction. Above 15150 is the first buy signal, If the market rises higher, and we dont get the down gap now, in 2-3 weeks NQ will crash again at 15850 to 13200, So it will be better to fil the downside gap right now. So have patience and protect your capital Sometimes no trading is also trading.
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US existing home sales slide again, but prices up from a year earlierDont Buy before the market stabilizes at 14000-14400... Storm is coming
Bonds up
DXY UP
CHINA!
Powell speaking till Sunday
The Fed May Need To Go To 6%
Fed Credibility at Risk If Inflation Target Changes, Barkin Says
banks dragged after S&P Global Ratings joined Moody’s Investors Service and downgraded some US banks due to a challenging economic environment.
Nvidia's stock initially rose to a record high but later fell in anticipation of its earnings report due on Wednesday.
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As I warned days before: Wait for Buy Signals at around 14200-14450Zone AND Wait till Monday open.It´s better we go down now, cuz if we don´t fill the Gap this week, in 3-4 weeks(september) The market will crash from 16000 to this level again. If we fill this gap till tommorrow close bell, then there is nothing what can stop Nasdaq and other Inidces on their way upsides....Wait to fill the gap completely. If it breaks the gap down, then it will ontinue to reach 1385-13650-13200...and then revere. So Use your ability to practice patience. If you re not patient enough, then.... ask Dalai Lama how to practice patience
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Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker suggests interest rate hikes are at an endบันทึกช่วยจำ
US yields rise as data suggests higher rates for longerThe data highlights the quandary the market faces a day before Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the U.S. central bank's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming
The two-year note's US2YT=RR yield, which reflects interest rate expectations, rose 6.7 basis points to 5.019% as it see-sawed either side of the key 5% threshold.
GAP is target 1
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Gap filled at 14583. Powell Jackson Hole: Although inflation has moved down from its peak, a welcome development, it remains too high.... we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective.Buy at 14880 Levels.. Targets up are 15150.Above that zone buying pressure to 15350(Coection Zone)..If breaking 15350 we go to 15850 Gap Up Fill...
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Next week in case we break the folloing level, NQ may go to:Keep Monitor closely these levels ,VERY VERY IMPORTANT 14609,14499, Balue Retrace 14280 and 14 256
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Sadly Nasdaq has not fill the Gap down completly, But targeting 15850 UPSIDE GAP NOW: Today disappointing US dAT PUTTING bONDS AND dxy sell off, Below 15303 NQ will go bak to 15000 area, an if breaking that zone, hopefully going down to 14400. As long as Lower TF Trend is bullish, go in sync with Daily major trend, but be prepared to stong pullback. I hoped to reache the gap down in Auust, but it doesn´t seem so. In 2-3 Weeks we may see That STRONG pullback from the highs15703-15900 back to 14500.In that case NQ will stay longer at that level and maybe go also someway deeper ....September is the dirtiest trading month ever, Last year bloody low volatility month ever. If it s repeating this year the same, then we will see the corretion with higher probability. It is essential to montor trades, if NQ doesnt make Hiher highs than 15950 which will create a mis-successed Double TOP PATTERN, and breaking below 14500 will create a sell off pattern. This will happen if the 2 conditions above will occure.บันทึกช่วยจำ
++++++IMPORTANT NASDAQ UPDATES++++++Most important Day:Wednesdday Data and news
We have now 2 open Gaps upside and downside. Next week ontract rollover.It means if we dont fill one of these 2 haps this week, ,next week we will have 3 open Gaps, and tha means exzreme volatility that will affect also other markets like FX, Cypto.
Target 1 bullish: i ope you have followed my recommandations to buy nasdaq at 14600 zone. If not, then do nothing and stay out, Uf yes,then be aware of close your poitions if we lose 15416....This is our trailing top, now in Profit,that is correlating with VAL Monthly. If Nasaq loses 15416 it will drop to 14500 and then 13850..If it hols and retraces bak we go upsides to 15660,15712,15752,15660,15812,15850,15950, and maybe 16050,,,,There we will have lower volume and more selling pressure, if bonds dont retrae back. If DXY and bonds jump and on the same time hawkish FED news, nasaq and all other indices will drop short, quickly, suddenly and sharply. Dont worry:It will happen so fast, you wont have time to sctatch your hairs. So like a mini crash, but short and quickly. On 13800 area it will happen the opposite:This time the Bulls will agreively do the same with you. So be aware. If you are unsure, take profits, or maybe small losses, and stay out. It is a real rumble, better than mortal combat 5
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EUROPE opening lower after Asian open.......Today important data.... 5 Senarios....4 Bwaeish 1 Bullish..... Probability to go own to 14500 increase from 68% now to 89%(Traders Sentiment).If nq goes up to 15950 first then we have proper goo situation to short the market till the beginning of October
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Dollar up us funds rates down, inflation down, bullish sentiment up to 92%บันทึกช่วยจำ
Bullish BUYJOLTS Falling job openings could confirm US labor market is losing steam ISM up
NDX long NEXT Target 16150-16200
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US100 bullishUS Trade Balance down, Dollar down, shares up, Nasdaq bullish, Profit Target 1 16200
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US100 Bullish CRUDE OIL strong bearish...Further Signals below...
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change far below expectations 103K ,Forecast was 131. The US economy is slowing down, ,good for NQ, as Inflation forecasting down now.Interest rates sentiment is increasing.Bullish sentiment is now above 74% Bearih sentiment below 18.75. NQ COT report(lat Friday shows commercials start to buy NQ). Posible FED Fund cut early next year,Feb/Mach 2024.
Further signals: Crude Oil WTI,.... Bearih short, Gold Bullish, BTCUSD Bullish, EURUSD Bullih, GBPUD BULLISH, USDJPY bearih, EURJPY bearish, GBPJPY bearih, DAX40(Germany40) bullish, EU50 bullih, Dow Jones Bullish; US Dollar down bearish, RTY bullish, Coffee Arabica Bullish, Palladium Bearish, Platinum bullish, Ethereum UD Bullish
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US100 Strong bullih now 245min. TF beginning to pump16050, 16182,16200,16250 next If breaing that level we will see soon ALL TIME High of Nadaq 2021. 16775 after that, and then 17000 ..not necesarily today, as tomorrow and on Friday further Inflation data. the Bias is bullish.. but at the end of this week or until the end of 2023..(unles the economy continues to cool down). Other catalysts lie sudden middle east war, could stop the bullish trend and revere it..But currently Israel starts the diplomatic talks, thats good for U shares and Nasdaq
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US100 bullishBut dont buy yet.WAIT!!! The uptrend will revere again.
Unemployment Claims unchanged, but Job cuts increase, Inflation down. currently 30 min. trend is down, wait to change the 30 min. trend bullish, and then buy the weekly support at 15747-15800. Today is no trend day, meaning we buy, and set profit targets. Bonds high,but US Dollar down, We posibly go down to upport and sideways, as the market waiting for tomorrows important Non-Farm Employment Change
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TREND BULLISH (All trend Daily to 52W, 18 Trends are strongly Bullish) .If some lower TF (e.i. D,2D,3D,5D get bearish, it will be oppurtunity to take ONLY!!!! Bullih Trades.In this cae we only trade long, but set Profit targets!Once PT ha reached, we just wait for another bullish Buy trade. We avoide 100%-ly taking hort trades in this phae of the market, as the strong bullish power will retrace fast,or selling trade will end in low volatile sideways shift).IMPORTANT US DATA ARE:
Federal Funds Rate VERY IMPORTANT FED MEETING NEXT WEDNESDAY Dec.13th 2023
Current FED rates at 5.25/5.5
Estimation no rate hikes : 97,7%
Estimation rate-cuts(easing) :2,3%
FRIDAY DATA 8th Dec: Very important
-Non-Farm Employment Change if unchanged or below etimates ,good for Nasdaq,Gold,BTCUSD and all markets against US Dollar
-Unemployment Rate: If greater than forecast good for Nasdaq,Gold,BTCUSD and all markets against US Dollar
-Average Hourly Earnings m/m if less than forecast, good for Nasdaq,Gold,BTCUSD and all markets against US Dollar
-Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment and Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations:If less than expected, good for Nasdaq,Gold,BTCUSD and all markets against US Dollar
Technical Bullish Signals: Gold broke above important Reistance 2084, but could not held above. Trend is bullish. My Buy signals and Long trades are active
Important bullish supports to buy again are:
15750,15658,15628,,15800,15850 above16905
Targets
16050
16125
16202
16250
16358
16407
16442
16609
16678
16723
16814
If Fundamentals change,and the sentiment starts to get bearih, and 52W Bullish Trend change to ,,Sell-Off,,We will liquidate all Bullish poitions and will immediately ell Nasdaq. Also USDollar and Bonds trend change will influence our decisions.
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Strong US Job Growth Seen in November as Strikes End; Trend SlowingAlso detailled explanation of todays trading on my live stream
US100 Nasdaq Non-Farm Payroll 8th DEC 2023
tradingview.com/streams/k4EtkecpNk/
Inter- and Intra market divergence.... Mixed data(so we are waiting to catch the bet potential price. Patience is key.
U.S. job growth likely picked up in November as thousands of automobile workers and actors returned after strikes, but the underlying trend will probably point to a cooling labor market.
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Strong US Job Growth Seen in November as Strikes End; Trend SlowingAlso detailled explanation of todays trading on my live stream
US100 Nasdaq Non-Farm Payroll 8th DEC 2023
tradingview.com/streams/k4EtkecpNk/
Inter- and Intra market divergence.... Mixed data(so we are waiting to catch the bet potential price. Patience is key.
U.S. job growth likely picked up in November as thousands of automobile workers and actors returned after strikes, but the underlying trend will probably point to a cooling labor market.
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10 oclock 8th Dec Bought again Nasdaq at 16017,16020 and 16050, All trend in sync, Prelie data far below expectation, Now trend shift, no profit target ,vuz no divergence, Next target 16200
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Strong BullishProfit Trget 16200 hit and reached perfectly as expected
Nasdaq is holding stabil above the level while maintaining building bullih volume.
Strong Bullish
FOMC MEETING
on 13th Dec 2023
99% Probability of ,,NO RATE HIKE,,
That is boosting Gold, Shares and Nasdaq
Current US Dollar recovery is caused by Profit Taking
Bitcon profit taking phase
After the FOMC meeting we will face some more datas on thureday and friday. Alo Bond auction went hort, as US yields are unstable now.
Trend is bullish,
My strategy is bullish, buying the support, and also highs, if strengthin the market.
A drop of 5D trend will initiate 50% Profit taking, while the ret of the positions will saty open ad active .
A drop of 8D trend will cuase another 30% profit taking, while waiting for new buy chance.
If 25D Trend is boken, then I will close another 10%, As long as 52W trend is active my bulls will play on the ground, meaning no sells, but buy longs
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Strong BullishAll trends long term/Mid Term/ short term strong bullish
I added my Positions strongly
my last bullish buy is 16280
Next Potential target is 16529 16600-16620
if breaking above 16720-16750 16916 16978
ULTIMATE Next possible and potential Target is 21681-21881 if all funamentals and economic circumstances are positive for Nasdaq and shares(earning,rates cuts, good economic news, lower inflation rates,etc....also sinking yields,....)
This analysis is based on average long term midterm and short term analysis.
Short term we will ofcourse see drops, profit taings, short term trend reversals, etc.
My trading style i based on agressive and conservative position sizing, but also agressive and conservative profit taking, immediate Position closing or entries. That make I am gonna make sure to take advantage of long term, mid term,but also short term oppurtunitie, but most importantly minimizing rik and maximizing gain potentials as long as possible. There is no room for emotions, or too much tactical and technical disussions, as I strongly follow my signals mechanical which are based on my Trading Playbook.
I dont use any more and any longer oscillators, like I did in the past, but keep focused on fundamental and technical market convergences, that will show me not only long term buy and hold strategy, but intermediate buy and sells.
Lower Time frame velow 1 H are not interesting for me. The lower than Daily TF have no meanings and impacts to buy or sell, but they show me just the current market sentiments for a shorter time, but in comparision to higher TF only.
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FED FUNDS RATES UNCHANGEDbullish
STRONG BUY
we added positions
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I am BULLISH strongly on this pair now, and will update if, based on my trading systems, trend reversals, position reducing, take profits, or trend change happensบันทึกช่วยจำ
Fed Pivot Toward Interest Rate Cuts in 2024 and Gold’s Bullish ResponseThe Federal Reserve concluded its last FOMC meeting of the year, and as expected, they kept their benchmark interest rate unchanged.
Seventeen voting members are all predicting interest rate cuts next year, with five officials projecting a decrease of ¾%, five officials anticipating a larger rate cut than ¾%, and the remaining two voting members anticipating no rate cuts next year. According to their economic projections, the Fed believes core inflation will peak at 2.4% next year, which is lower than its projections in September of 2.6%.
The Federal Reserve is also projecting inflation will cool to 2.2% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026. Their projections anticipate unemployment rising to 4.1% in 2024 and remaining at that level through 2026. The Fed also anticipates an economic deceleration forecasting growth at 1.4% next year, and rising to 1.8% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026
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Treasury yields hit lowest since August, fueling market optimism U.S. stock futures climb as Fed hints at 2024 rate cuts; Dow hits all-time high.
Fed Open Market Committee keeps rates steady; markets react positively to dovish outlook.
Post-Fed, Treasury yields drop to lowest since August, signaling economic optimism.
U.S. stock futures experienced a significant uplift Wednesday night, following the Federal Reserve’s indication of possible rate cuts in 2024.
US DOLLAR DOWN YIELDS DOWN ASSETS vs Dollar UP
Federal Reserve’s Rate Cut Signal
The Federal Open Market Committee maintained interest rates between 5.25% and 5.5%, aligning with market expectations. However, the revelation of potential rate cuts in 2024 spurred a positive shift in market sentiment. The Fed’s decision, signifying the potential end of a cycle that included 11 rate hikes, has been viewed as a pivot towards a softer monetary policy approach
Impact on Treasury Yields
The Fed’s announcement influenced Treasury yields, with the 10-year note hitting its lowest since August. The dovish outlook implies further cuts through 2025 and 2026, potentially lowering the fed funds rate to 2%-2.25%. This forecast aligns with a brighter inflation outlook, as indicated by recent consumer and wholesale price data
Solar Stocks Respond Positively
The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) saw a significant increase, with constituent stocks like Enphase Energy, SolarEdge Technologies, and Sunrun recording notable gains. This uptrend reflects the solar industry’s sensitivity to interest rates, as lower rates could reduce financing costs and improve valuations.
The E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index, currently priced at 16839.75, is exhibiting bullish tendencies. It stands above both the 200-day and 50-day moving averages, indicative of a strong upward trend in both medium and short-term perspectives.
The index is also trading above the main support level at 15717.75 and minor support at 16203.25, further reinforcing the bullish sentiment. The absence of defined minor and main resistance levels suggests there might be less overhead resistance to upward movement.
Overall, the market sentiment for the E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index appears to be strongly bullish, supported by its positioning above key moving averages and support levels.
In recent weeks, US futures have not only brought interest rate cuts forward but they have also increased the number of hikes anticipated in 2024. Markets price in the possibility of a 25 basis point cut as early as May next year and factor in just under 100 basis points in total, or four cuts of 25 bps each). As such the dollar and US yields have sold off and trade a fair distance from their respective peaks.
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Trend bulllish but strong Profit taking,excuted positions,waiting for new buy
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New Buy Signal15th Dec 18:38 et
at 16535
I am bullish again, after massive profit taking yeterday
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US100 BullishI increased my poitions 505 AT THE PRICE OF 16658 Trend bullish, my set up strong bullish Let´´s Go Nasdaq
Capacity Utilization Rate
US100 BullishI increased my poitions 505 AT THE PRICE OF 16658 Trend bullish, my set up strong bullish Let´´s Go Nasdaq
Capacity Utilization Rate
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Added again 10% more at 16605Bullish
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16650 Iaddednowmore Buys based on my trading systemบันทึกช่วยจำ
New Buy: added at 16612 15:35 est 10% more position,becaue new buy sgnal, Trend bullishบันทึกช่วยจำ
Bullish trades szil activve, This week US GDP on Thurseday and PMI Friday data are very importantบันทึกช่วยจำ
trend still bullishTarget 1 17630
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added longs at 16759Trend strong bullish
first target 17630
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Trend bullishUse the dip to buy more
Target 17630
We are in strong bull trend, if bears come, I use thier energy to buy more.That´ it.
top day trading.Become trend follower. Thats key to your success.
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Added more longs at 16586บันทึกช่วยจำ
GDP flatUnemployment claims up
Nasdaq strong bullish
Target 1 17630
We tay bullish, while using chances to increase our longs
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US100 BullishFor Daytrading levels only
Dont Buy this price 16669,
But buy 16607,16581,1644716334,16197
Sell(TP Only): 16770,16820 16865
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Dec 21 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures rose on Thursday, recovering from a broad sell-off on Wall Street in the prior session as investors clung on to hopes of borrowing costs easing next year, while chipmaker Micron advanced after delivering an upbeat forecast.The three main indexes ended the previous session lower, with the benchmark S&P 500 .SPX notching its worst day since late September following a recent rally that saw the index within a percentage of its record closing high hit in early 2022.
Reaching a new closing high would confirm the benchmark index had been in a bull market since closing at the bear market floor in October 2022.
The rally gained steam after policymakers took an unexpected dovish change in tone on monetary policy outlook a week ago, sending yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. treasury note US10YT=RR lower to 3.878% from multi-year highs it scaled in October. US/
Despite some push back from Federal Reserve officials, traders still expect at least a 25 basis points rate cut in as early as March next year, and a near 100% chance of a rate cut in May, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
On tap at 8:30 a.m. ET is the final domestic economic growth (GDP) estimate for the third quarter which is expected to stay unchanged from previous forecasts of 5.2%. Also due are weekly claims for state unemployment benefits that are expected to tick higher to 215,000, as per a Reuters poll.
The data points could throw light on the state of the U.S. economy in the wake of the Fed's fastest monetary tightening spree in years.
Meanwhile, Micron Technology MU.O forecast quarterly revenue above market estimates, and its shares jumped 5.5% before the bell on signs of a memory chip recovery in 2024 after one of the most significant downturns in years.
Other chip makers like Nvidia NVDA.O and Advanced Micro Devices AMD.O added over 1% each.
At 5:41 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis 1YMcv1 were up 144 points, or 0.38%, S&P 500 e-minis EScv1 were up 20.75 points, or 0.44%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis NQcV1 were up 98.75 points, or 0.59%.
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Other chip makers like Nvidia NVDA.O and Advanced Micro Devices AMD.O added over 1% each.At 5:41 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis 1YMcv1 were up 144 points, or 0.38%, S&P 500 e-minis Escv1 were up 20.75 points, or 0.44%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis NQcV1 were up 98.75 points, or 0.59%.
Boeing BA.N climbed 1.9% as the planemaker is set to restart deliveries of its 787 Dreamliner to China within days, a source told Reuters, a step that could pave the way for China to also end a more than four-year freeze on deliveries of Boeing's profit-making 737 MAX.
U.S. electric vehicle makers like Tesla TSLA.O Nikola NKLA.O and Lucid Group added between 1.2% and 4.0% after a report said the United States was considering tariff hikes on Chinese EV manufacturers.
U.S.-listed shares of BlackBerry BB.N BB.TO slid 5.4% after the Canadian technology firm forecast fourth-quarter revenue below analysts' expectations.
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A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rae WeeAsian shares stalled on Thursday after a late sharp selloff on Wall Street that left traders scratching their heads.
Perhaps investors are shutting up shop for the year, or taking some of their profits off the table before Friday's U.S. inflation data. The Nasdaq 100 NDX is up 51% for the year, despite Wednesday's 1.5% slide.
Oil slipped a fraction, but the market remains skittish as shippers scramble to avoid the Red Sea after a wave of attacks. Washington has launched an initiative to improve security at the maritime bottleneck but few practical details have emerged so far.
Toyota Motor 7203.T shares slumped as Japan's transport ministry inspected a subsidiary over safety concerns dating back decades.
The juggernaut of market euphoria from last week's dovish shift in the Federal Reserve outlook, meanwhile, rolled on in the rates market, bolstered by a rapid cooling of British inflation.
The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield US10YT=RR was last at 3.8622%, near the previous session's five-month low of 3.8470% and down 116 basis points from October's high.
The two-year yield US2YT-RR, which typically reflects near-term interest rate expectations, was similarly pinned near a seven-month trough. Two-year gilt yields dived more than 18 bps on Wednesday after data showed a far steeper decline in British inflation last month than anticipated.
Fed funds futures point to more than 150 basis points of cuts next year O#FF:, and similar expectations are now emerging around the Bank of England, with more than 100 bps of cuts similarly priced in for that central bank in 2024 0# BOEWATCH.
The last big piece of data before Christmas is Friday's U.S. core PCE price index reading - the Fed's preferred measure of underlying inflation, where another slowdown is expected.
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U.S. stock index futures rose on Thursday, recovering from a broad sell-off on Wall Street in the prior session as investors clung on to hopes of borrowing costs easing next year, while chipmaker Micron advanced after delivering an upbeat forecast. .NAt 7:06 ET, Dow e-minis 1YMc1 were up 0.40% at 37,593. S&P 500 e-minis ESC1 were up 0.43% at 4,770, while Nasdaq 100 e-minis NQc1 were up 0.61% at 16,867.75.
The top three NYSE percentage gainers premarket .PRPG.NQ:
** Terran Orbital Corporation, up 13.9%
**Allego NV, up 11.9%
** Sos Limited Adr, up 10.3%
The top three NYSE percentage losers premarket .PRPL.NQ:
** Regis Corporation, down 59.5%
** Ameren Corporation, down 56% ** Enzo Biochem Inc, down 7%
The top three Nasdaq percentage gainers premarket .PRPG.O: ** Infrared Cameras Holdings Inc, up 137.0%
** Hookipa Pharma Inc, up 108.8%
** Shengfeng Development Ltd, up 43.3%
The top three Nasdaq percentage losers premarket .PRPL.0:
** Sarcos Technology And Robotics Corporation, down 43.6% ** Nogin Inc, down 29.7%
** Upexi Inc, down 25.4%
** BlackBerry Ltd BB.N: down 4.4% premarket
BUZZ - ADRs slide as Q4 revenue forecast falls below estimates
** Micron Technology Inc MU.O: up 6.0% premarket BUZZ-Jumps after results, forecast top expectations
*k
*Boeing Co BA.N: up 1.7% premarket
BUZZ-Up on report China to approve first 787 delivery since April 2021
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Trend bullsh. Stay bullish,Investors are increasing their bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will face faster, deeper rate cuts, with money market expectations running far ahead of the Fed’s own rate expectations for 2024
For Daytrading levels only
Dont Buy this price 16669,
But buy 16607,16581,1644716334,16197
Sell(TP Only): 16770,16820 16865
first target 17630
บันทึกช่วยจำ
US: Yield curve inversion narrows before inflation dataThe inversion in the closely watched two-year, 10-year Treasury yield curve narrowed on Thursday, with shorter-dated yields falling while longer-dated ones rose, before inflation data on Friday may give fresh hints on likely Federal Reserve policy. The inversion in this part of the yield curve typically narrows and then turns positive when the economy slows as investors price in rate cuts, sending shorter-dated yields down faster than the longer-dated ones. Yields have tumbled in recent weeks on expectations that the Fed is closer to cutting interest rates as inflation moderates faster than was previously anticipated.
บันทึกช่วยจำ
The data will offer new insight into whether inflation is continuing to moderate, which would boost the chances that the U.S. central bank will cut rates in the coming months.Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on Friday are expected to show that headline prices were unchanged in November, while core prices rose by 0.2%, according to economists polled by Reuters. USPCE=ECI, USPCEM=ECI
Trading is expected to be volatile, however, with many investors on holiday and asset managers having closed their trading books for the year. The bond market will also close early at 2 p.m. EST (1900 GMT) on Friday and be closed on Monday for the Christmas Day holiday.
Benchmark 10-year yields briefly dipped to the lowest since late July earlier on Thursday after the consumer spending element of third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was revised downward to 3.1%, from 3.6% in the previous estimate, pulling overall GDP down to 4.9% from the previous estimate of 5.2%.
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Fed Chairman Jerome Powell offered an unexpectedly dovish outlook on policy after the U.S. central bank’s two-day meeting last week, when Fed officials forecast 75 basis points in rate cuts in 2024.บันทึกช่วยจำ
As 2024 comes into view, investors, economists, business leaders and everyday consumers from London to Lyons to Los Angeles share a common hope: Let the interest rate cuts begin!Central banks from most major developed economies closed out 2023 with a blitz of policy meetings in December that effectively shut the books on the aggressive rate hikes that have dominated the economic and financial landscape since 2022. The lone outlier, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), never managed to kill off its negative rates policy and signaled this week at the year's final meeting of a Group of Seven central bHolding rates steady as inflation rates slow further is another form of policy tightening that may not be appropriate for much longer.
That is something some Fed officials have begun openly bandying about as a reason for the rate cuts they flagged last week as being in the cards next year, especially if they hope to deliver a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy.anks that a shift away from that stance was not imminent. Keeping rates restrictive for longer than necessary risks a harsher outcome, one featuring a rapid slowdown in economic activity, a painful rise in unemployment and a recession that much of the world has managed to dodge so far despite that scenario being the more traditional end to rate-hike cycles.
Rate-sensitive economic sectors everywhere - such as housing and manufacturing - have felt the pinch of higher rates for more than a year.
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Is the 'Big Ease' coming in 2024 or will rate-cut hopes get dashed?tradingview.com/streams/nHQOCl2t78/
NASDAQ ANALYSIS 2024
US100 BullishTrading STREATEGY
ANALYSIS
Bullish Trend Change
Possible Level
Funamental Analysis Potential Entries Exits
tradingview.com/streams/nHQOCl2t78/
บันทึกช่วยจำ
Stay Bullish! Ignore bears, cuz you will lose BIG! The trend i strong bullish! tREND FOLLOWING IS NOT ,,Buy and Hold,, or ,,Sell and Hold,, Trend following is the most intelligent way to trade. Google that. Here some spread the rumoure that Trend following is buy and hold and ynonym for Investing. That is completley 100% ly wrong.If you have question how to learn it ,,for FREE,,!!! Ask me.Is the 'Big Ease' coming in 2024 or will rate-cut hopes get dashed?
tradingview.com/streams/nHQOCl2t78/
NASDAQ ANALYSIS 2024
Trend bullish, US Short-Term Inflation Expectations Hit Lowest Since 2021
Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauges Cool, Reinforcing Rate-Cut
Now FED in hurry how much faster to cut the rates and NQ celebrating that
ADDED 15% more positions.First Profit taking: 17630
First correction aid to the next swing: 17135
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US Short-Term Inflation Expectations Hit Lowest Since 2021US consumers remained sanguine about the inflation outlook as 2023 drew to a close, contributing to a robust rebound in sentiment. Americans expect prices will climb at a 3.1% rate over the next year, according to the final December reading from the University of Michigan, matching the preliminary figure and the lowest since March 2021. They see costs rising 2.9% over the next five to 10 years, data Friday showed. The initial reading was 2.8%. The index of consumer sentiment increased to a five-month high of 69.7, from 61.3 in November.
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Is the 'Big Ease' coming in 2024 or will rate-cut hopes get dashed?tradingview.com/streams/nHQOCl2t78/
NASDAQ ANALYSIS 2024
So far the market has closed succesfully above the prior high, while making ew all time highs. Also the inflation hit lowest low ince 2021, and the sentient is bullish. FED has been surprised , and now got reinforced to cut the rates as soon as possible, not waiting till May and intending to keep focus on soft landing Techniclly Higher high and Higher lows (sure not on 1 minute chart etc...that is so meaningless) I believe we will go higher Also the fundamentals are exactly the oppositie s NQ made its all time highs in 2021. But as trader we now:Always being prepared, and the Price is always right!
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This week I wont tae any trades, as becuz oof 29th DEC: THE MARKET COULD BE NERVOUSE(Last Cloing of the year+Profit takings). My Positions are bullish, but I am looking forward to tae advantages of some bearish move, if possible(Hedging).The probability that the market goes back to some potential Support is existing16658,16603,16483.if breaking below 16183). Peronally I want the NQ going back,and close lower, cuz the January Opening above that level(if In January NQ opens above Dec.Close and closes also above Dec2023 Close until 5th of Janury 2024,then the probability to have higher all time highs will increase). If not we will face a choppy volatile market. So that way Bulls should be aware,but happy if NQ going lowerr,the bear can benefit of temporarily shorts, and both can start good in the new year.
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New All time High achieving Asian stocks rise, dollar drifts as US rate cut bets rise
Dollar hovers near five-month low
Muted volumes on holiday thinned trade
Oil prices mixed as Middle East tensions in focus
Inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, fell 0.1% last month.
The Federal Reserve has aggressively changed its rhetoric to engineer a significant easing of financial conditions
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Trend strong BullishStaying long, using pullbacks to add long positions, as long as tren is bullish, taking only buy or long trades.
Fundamentals
The U.S. dollar weakens, approaching its lowest level since late July
Few market catalysts on sight for the remainder of the week
The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, retreated on Tuesday and flirted with its lowest levels since late July near 101.55 in a trading session characterized by thin liquidity, with many financial centers still closed for the Christmas holidays and ahead of the New Year's festivities.
Factoring in recent losses, the DXY index is down about 4.35% in the fourth quarter and about 1.9% in December. This drop is associated with the significant pullback in government bond yields, which have plummeted from the cycle high marked about two months ago.
The Fed’s pivot at its December FOMC meeting has reinforced ongoing market trends over the past couple of weeks. For context, the central bank embraced a dovish posture at its last gathering, signaling that it would deliver 75 basis points of easing in 2024, possibly as part of a strategy to prioritize growth over inflation.
With U.S. yields displaying a downward bias and a strong risk-on sentiment prevailing in equity markets, the U.S. dollar is likely to extend its decline in the short term. This could potentially lead to increased gains for gold, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD moving into the new year.
Focusing on important catalysts later this week, there are no major releases of note – a scenario that could create the right setting for a period of consolidation. Nevertheless, the dearth of impactful events doesn't guarantee subdued volatility or steady market conditions.
The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, falls to its weakest point in nearly five months
With U.S. bond yields on a downward trajectory and market exuberance on full display on Wall Street, further losses could be in stored for the greenback heading into the last week of 2023
The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, softened on Friday, hitting its weakest level in nearly five months at one point during the regular U.S. trading session, following encouraging data on consumer prices. For context, November core PCE, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, clocked in at 0.1% m-o-m, bringing the annual rate to 3.2% from 3.4%, one-tenth of a percent below consensus estimates - a sign that the trend continues to move in the right direction.
Factoring in the latest losses, the DXY index has fallen 4.1% in the fourth quarter and 1.8% in December, driven by the slump in government bond yields from the cycle’s highs.
Focusing on more recent price action, the Fed’s pivot last week has been the main source of U.S. dollar weakness over the past few days. Although the FOMC maintained the status quo at its last monetary policy meeting of the year, it admitted that it has begun to discuss rate cuts and signaled that it would slash borrowing costs several times by 2024.
The U.S. central bank’s dovish stance, which caught many investors off guard, has sparked a major downward correction in Treasury rates across the curve, pushing the 2-year note below 4.35% at some point this week - a notable retreat from its peak of 5.25% less than two months ago. The 10-year yield has also plummeted, trading beneath 3.9% on Friday after almost topping 5% in late October.
With U.S. yields skewed to the downside and market exuberance on full display on Wall Street, the U.S. dollar could deepen its near-term retracement. This could result in further upward momentum for gold, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD leading up to 2024, yet caution is warranted, with certain markets approaching potential overbought levels.
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The US Tech 100, also known as the Nasdaq 100 index, is a market capitalization system featuring more than 100 of the largest publicly-traded non-financial businesses on the Nasdaq composite index. Follow the US Tech 100 live price with the real-time chart and read the latest news and analysis articles. Our US Tech 100 forecast, key pivot points and support and resistance provide additional insights to trade this index consistently.Pivot Points
S3 16861.2
S2 16868.6
S1 16872.2
R1 16879.6
R2 16883.4
R3 16890.8
P 16876
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bullishWallstreet starts Profit taking now because of End of year closing tomorrow
Good news for Nasdaq today: FED much more under presure now:Joble claims again higher than expected to 217K.Fed expecting that the market celebrates the news, but as the market is smarter than.... is instead taking profits now...This is really good as the probability of NQ open above Dec 2023 close is increasing now....Wallstreet preparing that way to continue the ralley in 2024...The probability to cut FED Funds rate in January jumped from 0.2% to +17% in January 2024 baed on bloombergy news aganecy and FED dot rates. Cheers traders.Have a good start and winning year 2024
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Levels down to fill gap 16867-16877 16847 16809 Levels up buybACK TARGETS 16944,16958,16974(16976 is ALL TIME HIGH this is the firt target to get hunted in 2024, so I hope NQ goes down firt.If this happen, it will be awonderfull rally year for NQ in 2024)บันทึกช่วยจำ
2024 : More New All-Time Highs AnticipatedAfter coming into midterm 2022 cautious and turning bearish after the market did not hit our January Indicator Trifecta and Russia invaded Ukraine, our 2023 Forecast was significantly more bullish calling for a “Choppy Start, Fed Pause Q1, Pre-Election Bull Emerges.
We sure got the choppy start with help from a mini run on some regional banks with too much exposure to crypto, which was in a bear market of its own, and low long-term rates in a rapidly rising rate environment. The Fed kept raising rates a little longer than we anticipated, pausing in July
The pre-election year bull market, however, came on with gusto, more than we expected at times. Many of you remember from our monthly webinars and commentaries that one of biggest concerns for our outlook in 2023 was that we were not bullish enough.
The seasonal weakness and volatility we anticipated arrived as expected in August, September and October, as it often does in pre-election years, especially after a “Hot July”
market. Then October delivered a near perfect late-month turnaround and queued up the Best Six Months to a tee.
All in all, with S&P 500 up 22.4% year-to-date at yesterday’s close, NASDAQ up 41.2%, DJIA at new all-time highs and the small cap Russell 2000 outpacing big caps since the October lows, as they are supposed to, our 2023 Forecast, while not perfect, was on track.
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When a sitting president is running for reelection S&P 500 averages a gain 12.8% in election years since 1949. This is substantially better than when there is an open field with no sitting president in office running, culminating in a loss of -1.5% on average for the year. The market hates uncertainty and with a sitting president running there is a good chance market, economic and civic conditions will likely remain unchanged whereas with an open field there are a great deal of unknowns. 2024 has that power of incumbency going for it.Four Horsemen of the Economy
The Dow Jones Industrial Average the lead horse of our Four Horsemen of the Economy is leading indeed. While Papa Dow may not be logging the biggest gains of the major indexes this year it has hit new all-time highs. Last year DJIA held up best and this year S&P 500 and NASDAQ lead the charge driven by AI and technology innovation. We suspect that S&P and NAS are on their way to new all-time highs. S&P is only 1% away or 49.81 points. NASDAQ is 7.3% from a new ATH. Small caps and the Russell 2000 have woken up from their long inflation-induced slumber and are leading during this seasonal period as they historically have. As inflation cools and rates come down small caps should benefit.
Consumer Confidence is still suffering from the lagging effects of inflation. The rate of price increases has slowed, but prices are still rising, and many things are still much more expensive than they were and are expected to stay there. The jump in prices over the last few years has been quite significant. Wages have not kept up either. But anecdotally the malls, stores and restaurants in our area have been busy this holiday season.
Looking at our inflation chart of the 6-month exponential moving average of CPI and PPI we are reminded of the old Blood, Sweat & Tears 1968 hit “Spinning Wheel.” “What goes up must come down…” The rate of inflation has clearly come down precipitously while the economy has remained resilient. The pace of GDP growth and economic activity may decelerate some in 2024. It looks like the Fed has engineered the elusive soft landing. They’ve had help from massive government spending and increased productivity from AI, technological innovations and workplace efficiencies.
Amazingly, through the fastest and steepest rate hiking periode in a generation the labor market has remained robust, and unemployment has stayed below 4% for the past two years and down ticked last month to 3.7%. Perhaps all the folks who left the work force during Covid are trickling back into all the businesses that have been clamoring for workers since the pandemic ended.
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The Street has been buzzing about the Santa Claus Rally for three months now. Most still get it wrong. It’s not the yearend rally, the Q4 rally that runs from Halloween through January. Yes, November, December and January are the best three months of the year, but they are not the Santa Claus Rally. The Santa Claus Rally, while a seasonally bullish period, is really an indicator. It is our first seasonal indicator of the New Year and an integral component of our January Indicator -The “Santa Claus Rally” is the last 5 trading days of the year plus the first 2 of New Year. This year it begins on the open on December 22 and lasts until the second trading day of 2024, January 3. Average S&P 500 gains over this seven trading-day range since 1969 are a respectable 1.3%.
Failure to have a Santa Claus Rally tends to precede bear markets or times when stocks could be purchased at lower prices later in the year. Down SCRs were followed by flat years in 1994, 2005 and 2015, two nasty bear markets in 2000 and 2008 and a mild bear that ended in February 2016.
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The January BarometerIt states that: “As The S&P 500 Goes in January, So Goes the Year.” There have been 12 major errors since 1950, which is an 83.6% accuracy ratio. Including 8 flat years yields a .726 batting average. The 1933 “Lame Duck” Amendment to the constitution is why the JB works. Since 1934, Congress convenes in the first week of January and includes those members newly elected the previous November. Inauguration Day was also moved up from March 4 to January 20.
Being the first month of the year, it’s when people readjust their portfolios, rethink their outlook for the coming year and try to make a fresh start. There is also an increase in cash that flows into the market in January, making market direction even more important. Then there is all the information Wall Street must digest: The State of the Union Address in most years, FOMC meetings, 4th quarter GDP data, earnings, and the plethora of other economic and market data.
We look forward to seeing Santa’s arrival and a positive Santa Claus Rally. Then we will be watching for a positive First Five Days and January Barometer, what we refer to as our January Indicator Trifecta. Until the market says otherwise, we anticipate them all to be positive. But as we always remind readers: if these seasonal indicators are negative and the market does not rally as it normally does during these bullish seasons, we will likely shift to a less bullish posture – if not outright bearish.
Since 1950, when all three January Indicators, Santa Claus Rally, First Five Days and the full-month January Barometer are up, S&P 500 is up 90.3% of the time 28 out of 31 years for an average gain of 17.5%. When one or more of the Trifecta are down the year is up 59.5% of the time, 25 of 42, for a paltry average gain of 2.9%.
If the market does not rally, as it should during bullish seasonal periods, it is a sign that other forces are stronger and that when the seasonal period ends those forces will really have their say.
On cue the market is hitting new pre-election year annual highs in December and near the last trading day of the year. To be clear we are bullish for 2024 with a sitting president running for reelection. Election years are not as strong as pre-election years, so we do not expect a repeat of the gains we have enjoyed in 2023. We also have a rather contentious political climate this cycle and the makings of a heated presidential election race and campaign, which is likely to create some weakness in the middle of the year during Q2-Q3 during the Worst Six Months of the year.
Sitting presidents have won reelection 15 times and lost 6 in the past 21 occurrences since 1900. Years incumbents won reelection were stronger early in the year. Years incumbent presidents lost suffered weak starts, but finished strong as unpopular administrations were removed
DJIA , S&P 500 and NASDAQ have advanced for seven straight weeks and still stand a solid chance of extending the streak to eight this week. DJIA’s last weekly winning streak of 7 or more consecutive weeks started in December 2018, spanned 9 weeks, and ended in February 2019 with a gain of 16.0%. DJIA’s longest weekly streak since 1950 lasted 14 weeks from August through October 1965. In total, there have been 20 weekly streaks of at least 8 straight. It would not be unprecedented for DJIA to do it once again.
S&P 500 and NASDAQ have similar historical records when comparing weekly winning streaks lasting 7 or more weeks. Longest streaks were 13 weeks for S&P 500 in 1957 and 15 weeks for NASDAQ from December 1971 to March 1972. Based upon history, S&P 500 and NASDAQ could also continue their respective weekly winning streaks this week.
Market breadth over the past three weeks has remained generally bullish with Weekly Advancers outnumbering Weekly Decliners in two of the last three weeks (6). The week ending December 8, was the exception despite all three indexes recording modest weekly gains. Overall, market breadth suggests that there is broad participation in the rally. Every rally needs leadership and broadening participation to keep it going. The current rally does appear to be garnering increased participation.
The trend of Weekly New Highs and New Lows also remains supportive to the rally. Aside from two modest dips, Weekly New Highs have been trending higher since the end of October and have reached their highest level since November 2021. Weekly New Lows have also remained subdued but have ticked slightly higher recently
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This rise in New Weekly lows appears consistent with impacts of tax-loss selling.In response to cooling inflation metrics and growth outlooks, the 30-year Treasury bond yield has retreated further. After peaking at 5.02% in late October, it declined to 4.17% last week (8). The 10-year Treasury has also had a similar decline in yield and is back below 4%. The declines in longer-dated interest rates are aiding stocks.
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My 2024 ForecastBase Case: 85% Probability – Current trends remain intact. Inflation continues to trend back towards the Fed’s stated 2% target. Economic growth slows and employment metrics soften, but recession is avoided as Federal spending continues to support the economy. Power of sitting president running for re-election lifts market to new all-time highs. Average election year gains of 8-15%.
Best Case: 10% Probability – Inflation falls below 2% sooner than expected. Growth and employment soften. No recession, perfect soft landing is achieved, and the Fed lowers rates to achieve neutral monetary policy sooner than expected. Growth then accelerates while inflation remains subdued. Above average gains of 15-25%.
Worst Case: 5% Probability – Geopolitical concerns spiral out of control. Russia – Ukraine war drags on, Israel – Hamas war expands to multiple fronts, and/or China moves to take Taiwan. Inflation does not trend lower and remains elevated longer forcing the Fed to maintain a restrictive money policy stance longer. Economic growth and employment turn negative. Recession begins. Full-year performance negative with broad losses across most asset classes.
The bull market returned in 2023 and is expected to continue through 2024. And our May 2010 Super Boom Forecast when the Dow was around 10,000 for the Dow to reach 38,820 by the year 2025 looks like it’s now running ahead of schedule.
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Happy Holidays & Happy New Year, we wish you all a healthy and prosperous 2024!บันทึกช่วยจำ
Market at a GlanceSeasonal: Bullish. December is the third best month for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 1000. It is Russell 2000’s second best month. In pre-election years, performance has been even stronger with average gains ranging from 2.7% from DJIA to 4.2% by NASDAQ. Tax-loss selling can weigh on the first half of December. Free Lunch to be served before the market opens on December 18. January Effect of small-cap outperformance usually begins mid-December. Santa Claus Rally begins on December 22 and runs until January 3.
Fundamental: Mixed. Q3 GDP was revised higher to 5.2%, but the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is now estimating Q4 growth of just 1.8%. Inflation metrics continue to indicate cooling inflation, but year-over-year prices are still rising, and inflation remains above the Fed’s target. Employment data is still reasonably firm with some signs of softness. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated despite a temporary cease fire between Israel and Hamas. Perhaps these are the early signs of a soft economic landing.
Technical: Breaking out Nasdaq DJIA sp500 and Russel breaouts and ALLTIME HIGHS, Successfull Santa Ralley, Donchian Fib trends all bullish in positive territory has closed at a new recovery high and is less than 900 points from its all-time closing high. S&P 500 and NASDAQ are nearing their respective recovery closing highs from July. Those old highs are presenting some resistance that could be eclipsed before yearend. All three indexes at new recovery highs would be further confirmation the bull market remains intact and is likely to continue.
Monetary: 5.25 – 5.50%. The Fed is most likely done with rate hikes. The desired soft economic landing appears to be unfolding. To maintain credibility, it will not be surprising to see the Fed remain hawkish on inflation as it reminds all that it is data-driven and data-dependent. As long as interest rates are not rising or expected to rise, the market will have one less concern to contend with.
Sentiment: Holiday Cheer.Sentiment survey Bullish advisors stand at 55.7%. Correction advisors are at 22.9% while Bearish advisors numbered 21.4% as of their November 29 release. Broad market gains have lifted bullish sentiment, but not yet to lofty levels. Because it is the holiday season and the “Best Months,” elevated bullish sentiment is less concerning.
Right on cue the market correction ended just before the end of October. As we went to press with last month’s outlook on Thursday, October 26, NASDAQ halted its 3-month slide with a loss of -12.3%. DJIA and S&P 500 finished their corresponding seasonal drops the very next day with losses of -9.0% and -10.7% respectively. Then just as we expected this November-to-remember rallied NASDAQ up 13.4% from the October low with S&P and DJIA both up 10.9% at today’s close.
So, what’s with all the bearish sentiment we keep hearing from Wall Street analysts and CEOs and many market pundits?
Looking bac to Nov 30th Just this morning on one of the national financial news shows the anchor and reporter were looking for reasons Q3 GDP was so robust at 5.2%. Their conclusion was that the work-from-home crowd is consuming instead of commuting and of course when they are forced to go back to the office next year all the spending will end.
VIX down Inflation is cooling and the Fed, despite any jawboning you may hear, is done with increases for all intents and purposes and is only posturing to remind everyone that they are data dependent too. Today the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator reading PCE hit an 18-month low of 3.0% annual rate. Inflation’s cooling trend is rather apparent in our favorite chart of CPI, PPI and PCE.
With November logging its fourth best gain on the S&P since 1950 at a whopping 8.9% for the month there’s some concern that the strong November will take from December’s usual gains. However, when we ran the numbers, the impact was rather negligible. The other top three Novembers 1962, 1980 and 2020 were followed by up December 2 out of 3 times with December 1980 being down -3.4%.
While two out of three ain’t bad, as Meat Loaf would say, December is up 74% of the time in all 73 prior years since 1950. The top 10 and top 20 Novembers were followed by up December 70% of the time, though average gains are a little above average for the top ten at 1.8%. So, all in all, big November gains take very little if anything away from historically strong Decembers. In short, gains beget gains.
We still don’t understand why so many on The Street are so bearish. It’s the holiday season. It is seasonally the most bullish time of the year. And seasonality remains on track and firing on all pistons as does the 4-Year Cycle. Market internals and technicals continue to be supportive. Those that may remember the 1990s will recall that the market can flourish, driven by innovation and technology – can you say AI? – even when interest rates are at current levels or even higher. The bond market continues to signal a declining trend in rates with the 10-year and 30-year bond yields retreating off the recent highs.
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Seasonality RulesWe are just at the beginning of the Best Six Months of the year and the Best Three consecutive months of the year. It’s also a pre-election year, the best year of the 4-year cycle, that often sees a new high in December and frequently on the last trading day of the year. December has been a solid month in all years as well as pre-election years, ranking second or third no matter how you slice it.
After some likely first half December tax-loss selling pressure, we look forward to seeing Santa’s arrival and a positive Santa Claus Rally. Then we will be watching for a positive First Five Days and January Barometer, what refer to as our January Indicator Trifecta. Until the market says otherwise, we anticipate them all to be positive. But as we always remind readers: if these seasonal indicators are negative and the market does not rally as it normally does during these bullish seasons, we will likely shift to a less bullish posture – if not outright bearish.
We will also be on the lookout for small-cap strength to begin around mid-December. What used to be known as the “January Effect” of small-cap outperformance can last from mid-December through March. Small caps, notably the Russell 2000 Index has been lagging and remains under water since its November 2021 high. However, since the October low the R2K looks like it’s bottoming and setting up for a more typical seasonal mid-December rally.
For 2024, we are also bullish. Politics aside, a sitting president running for re-election is the most bullish of scenarios.
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US Pending Home Sales Index Holds at Lowest Level on RecordA gauge of pending US existing-home purchases held at a record low in November, indicating a weak resale market beset by a lack of inventory and high prices.
US jobless claims rose for second straight week after ticking up before Christmas
US: 7Y high yield 3.859%, WI 3.837%, 2.2bps tail; biggest tail since Nov 2022
GOOD FOR NASDAQ AND CO,bad for inflation and U Dollar
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bought 16763 again Trend bullishบันทึกช่วยจำ
History shows strong 2023 could keep US stocks on path for 2024 gainsThe U.S. stock market’s hefty gains in 2023 could provide a lift for equities next year, if history is any guide.
The S&P 500 .SPXended the year on Friday with an annual gain of just over 24%. The benchmark index also stood near its first record closing high in about two years
Market strategists who track historical trends say that such a strong annual performance for stocks has often carried over into the following year, a phenomenon they attribute to factors including momentum and solid fundamentals.
Data from LPL Research going back to 1950 showed that years following a gain of 20% or more have seen the S&P 500 rise an average of 10%. That compares to an average 9.3% annual return. Such years are also more frequently positive, with the market ending the year up 80% of the time, versus 73% overall.
Further tests of the market's strength will arrive quickly. U.S. companies start to report fourth-quarter results in the next couple of weeks with investors anticipating a much stronger year for profit growth in 2024 after a tepid 3.1% increase in 2023 earnings, according to the latest LSEG estimates.
Investors are also awaiting the conclusion of the Fed’s first monetary policy meeting of the year in late January for insight into whether policymakers hew to the dovish pivot they signaled in late December, penciling in 75 basis points of rate cuts for 2024.
Indeed, signs the economy is starting to wobble following the 525 basis points in Fed rate hikes since 2022 could hinder momentum for stocks. By the same token, accelerating inflation in 2024 could delay expected rate cuts, putting the market’s soft-landing hopes on hold.
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Basically, all of the indicators that I look at point to a positive yearบันทึกช่วยจำ
Many retail traders say: we are over bought....this is double top this is the double bottom...etc....ok.if you believe in it:Sell! If you dont believe in it:Buy or stay out! But....
But...
But...
If you ask me for my opinion:Here is my answer. Scroll up!Read theses updates from beginning and you guess someway what I think about it.. If you want a short summary, then read the lines below:
My thoughts are:
There only 3 INDICATOR that are not manipulated and are 100% RIGHT!!!
Indicator No.1: PRICE!
Indicator No.2:PRICE!!
Indicator No.3:PRICE!!!
The Price is always RIGHT! There is no bull ide.There is no bear side. There is ONLY and ONLY the Right side of the market.
The PRICE is the the only un.manipulated INDICATOR. It has all information of the past,of NOW, and of Future!
Some say :We are now at double top.They aid that last week, 1 month ago, in the Summer, at the beginning of 2023!The price of NASDAQ is today 16812.We made since 2 Weeks every 2days in avergae new ALL TIME HIGHS. This is very unusual. NASDAQ broke the all time high of 2021/2022 13 Times in row!!! The major resistance was 16750(Alltime High 2022). Thi i now The major support. Nasdaq broke a hard resistance that held more than 20 Months. The Bulls are defending this support more than their lives. Overbought? Well overbought in relation to what? Overbought in lower time frameS? Overbought of which indicators? What settings? What indicator TF? And what do contarian Indicators say? How about the lagging Indicators? In which time horizon relationship?What setting? All indicator move ,after the market made its move. So Indicators, no matter which are alway late.Too late. And Indicator are based on subjective opinions. Trade One Indicator says short, while the other one ays long!Who is right!? Do thi traders move the markets? If yes, why do they have not only winner, but also loses?! If they move the markets ,why do they put profit targets? Or Stop loss orders? The Price is always right. There is no Double top, no double bottom... In 2020 WTI was for one day below zero: at the price of -2$(Yes you read it the right way: Minus 2 Dollars!!!! Can you remember it? Bitcoin can go and be traded below zero!!!Did you now that,how possible it is? THE PRICE IS ALWAYS RIGHT!!!! And the only way to gain pofit of it is stopping predicting the price.Instead Following the price! We are Trend Follower. I am trend Follower. We take the trade. We put our stop, and the market does the rest. No prediction. We dont limit our profits. We limit only our risk, We takes losers fast out. We dont let a small problem(loser) getting a big trouble .We let our profits run. And believe me They are very BIG! Because we follow only the price. Because the price is always right. We dont need crystal balls, and indicators that are well known to the smart money. We have the bet unmanipulated Indicator:That Indicator is called:PRICE! And I follow only and only the price. If the price says enough, no all time highs anymore now I(the Price) am going down,No problem. I follow the price, and ell the market short.Because I follow the pprice If the price says:,,Not high enough,I(the Price) wanna go higher!,No Problem! I follow long.I am a price follower.If Price says:Flat!No trade zone for you now!No Problem! I stay out!. But what price doesnt know is:If the price wanna make loses, I have my stops! But whatever happens,I follow only the price.The price is the best indicator.The only indicator.It has no memories,it has no emotions. It even does not debate. That is the best about the PRICE. aND pRICE PUNIH; IF YOU DONT FOLLOW IT! And believe me Price knows no mercy. There is no bull side,no bearsides, but only the right side of the market. And the price is much more smarter than us traders. So stop predicting the next price
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Trend UP SELL more USDDollar tentative as investors await Fed Dollar tentative as investors await Fed minutes
Gold firms on Fed rate-cut hopes; US data in focus
Gold prices rose on Tuesday, supported by the prospect of interest rate cuts in 2024 from the Federal Reserve, while investors look forward to a slew of economic data this week for more clarity on the U.S. rate outlook.
Markets are now pricing in an 86% chance of rate cuts from the Fed in March, according to CME FedWatch tool. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
Also on the radar, data on U.S. job openings and December non-farm payrolls will also been keenly watched for more clarity on Fed rate path.
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Wall Street: validates 9 best weeks in 20 years Mission accomplished: despite a slight pause on December 29, Wall Street completed its 9th consecutive week of gains, and the US indices ended the year 0.2% or 0.4% shy of their annual or all-time records (Nasdaq-100 and Dow Jones).
The S&P500 (-0.28%) gained +0.4% over the week, signing its longest bull run in 20 years... but above all, it is a unique feat in history, never having lost more than 0.8% in 9 weeks, with the exception of the -1.5% of December 20, immediately corrected by 4 annual records over the following 5 sessions.
The Nasdaq (-0.43% at 16.826 but +54% in 2023) and the Dow Jones (-0.05%) validated their longest bull run since 2019, but this is the 1st time in the 21st that no consolidation lasting more than 48H has materialized, with stratospheric up/down ratios (like the latest sequence of 14 gains in 15 sessions, except for that famous December 20).
The 'Fantastic 7' ended rather lower on Friday (Tesla -1.9%), but the 10 biggest 'technos' (including the '7') will collectively gain +110% in 2023 (with an average P/E of over 50).
Nividia +240%, Meta +194%, AMD +128%, Tesla +101%, Broadcom +100%, Intel +90%, Amazon +80%, Netflix +63%, Alphabet +58%, Microsoft +57%, Apple +48%.
The 'techno' stocks as a whole are gaining +55% (average P/E close to 40) and this sector is beaten only by cruise lines (+57%).
In a note published last night, Dan Ives, the star analyst at Wedbush Securities, reiterated his expectation of a further rise of around 25% in the major US technology stocks next year (the "Fantastic 7" + a few semiconductors), which would be an undeniable driving force for global equity markets.
It's worth noting that these 'Fantastic 7' have gained +103% this year (on an equally-weighted basis) and accounted for 90% of the S&P500's performance, a capital concentration unseen in a century, along with the railways and John.D Rockefeller's Standard Oil (before 1911).
No champagne year-end for bonds, but T-Bonds are proving far more resilient than Bunds or OATs, with only +1pt on the US 10-year at 3.865%, a level comparable to mid-July.
The '30 yr' fell by 2pts to 4.01%, but paradoxically the yields on the '1 yr' and '2 yr' improved by -3 and -2pts to 4.782% and 4.261% respectively... the '3 month' by -5pts to 5.345%, as economists are betting that the US electoral calendar will require monetary easing to start very early in the year, in order to adopt a more neutral stance in October November 2024.
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Futures inch up, firm rate cut bets drive strong gainsบันทึกช่วยจำ
The three main indexes also eyed their ninth straight weekly gain as well as both monthly and quarterly advances.They were set for double-digit gains in 2023, with the Nasdaq on track for its strongest yearly jump since 2003, sharply rebounding from a slump last year.
With the Fed's aggressive rate hikes cooling the U.S. labor market as well as pressuring the economy, investors have amplified their bets of rate cuts heading into 2024.
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The three main indexes also eyed their ninth straight weekly gain as well as both monthly and quarterly advances.They were set for double-digit gains in 2023, with the Nasdaq on track for its strongest yearly jump since 2003, sharply rebounding from a slump last year.
With the Fed's aggressive rate hikes cooling the U.S. labor market as well as pressuring the economy, investors have amplified their bets of rate cuts heading into 2024.
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Trend bullishHedged 16893
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short hedge target 16532บันทึกช่วยจำ
PROFIT TAKING WallstreetPMi 47k ,bad for dollar NQ waiting for ISM and 5th Januyry2024
Very important
We are still bullish, but hedged our positions
169532 short hedge target 1 hit, but we wait for our trading system giving olving signal.
Updates will come
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US100 trend bullish
profit takingg
PMI below expectations
dollar up Warconflict tensions between US and IRAN8+houthiesrebels Red sea increasing):
MARKET WAITING FOR fomc MINUTES
5th Januayr most important day of this year!!!!!
November US Construction Spending Up 0.4%
Construction spending during November 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,050.1 billion, 0.4% above the revised October estimate of $2,042.5 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The November figure is 11.3% above the November 2022 estimate of $1,842.2 billion. During the first eleven months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,817.1 billion, 6.2% above the $1,711.1 billion for the same period in 2022. Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,595.0 billion, 0.7% above the revised October estimate of $1,584.4 billion.
US manufacturing performance declines at sharper pace as demand conditions weaken
The US manufacturing sector slipped further into contraction during December, according to the latest PMI® survey data from S&P Global, as output returned to decline and the downturn in new orders gathered pace. Lower total new sales reflected weakness in both domestic and external demand conditions, with firms adjusting down their input buying and hiring activity accordingly. Signs of greater spare capacity were seen through a faster fall in backlogs and destocking, with firms also seeking to better manage cashflow.
The US dollar begins the new year on a firm note. It is recovering against nearly all the G10 and emerging market currencies today after depreciating in the holiday-thin markets over the past couple of weeks. Japanese markets are on holiday until Thursday. The yen and Swiss franc are the poorest performers among the G10 currencies. Among emerging market currencies, the Mexican peso, Hungarian forint, and South African rand are bucking the trend to post minor gains against the greenback. The Chinese yuan is off by about 0.5% for its biggest loss in at least six months.
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NASDAQ (NEW UPDATES) Bonds DOWN RATE CUT PROBABILITY RISING
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Trend BullishWe hedged yesterday ASIA session our positions at above 16850 short. at this moment we have longs and shorts positons in nasdaq an some ndices in profit,.Based on our trading strategy signals we will decie if we excecute the shorts, or take out our longs(If the trend becomes bearish).
Current sentient for the next days is bearish to unknown, as the market is very nervouse. But we tick to our long time proven strategy.
The US dollar, as measured by the DXY index, started the new year on the front foot, rising for the third consecutive session, supported by a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year note up 7 bp to 3.93%. In this context, the DXY index climbed 0.7% to 102.10 in early afternoon trading in New York, posting its biggest daily advance since October, ahead of high-impact events later in the week.
Key releases, including the ISM manufacturing survey and the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report (NFP), will give an opportunity to assess the economic outlook and ascertain if projections of aggressive interest rate cuts for 2024 hold merit.
If manufacturing activity accelerates in a meaningful way and employment growth surprises to the upside, investors are likely to pare bets on deep interest-rate cuts, foreseeing that the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to slash borrowing costs substantially in a stable economy for fear of reigniting inflation. This scenario would be bullish for the U.S. dollar.
On the flip side, if the data disappoints and shows cracks in the economy, especially in the labor market, it would not be surprising to see the Fed's policy outlook shift in a more dovish direction, an outcome that would put downward pressure on yields and, by extension, the U.S. dollar. Any NFP print below 100,000 is likely to produce this response.
On the other hand, if the bulls manage to propel the exchange rate above the 200-day SMA around 143.00, we could see a rally towards 144.80. Surmounting this obstacle may be difficult, but a successful push above it could establish favorable conditions for an upward move toward the 146.00 handle. Sustained strength might embolden the bulls to aim for 147.20.
However, the greenback was unable to maintain its upward momentum for long. Shortly after setting a new 2023 high in early October, DXY shifted lower, undercut by the sharp downward correction in real and nominal yields following benign inflation readings.
With inflationary forces downshifting, markets began to price in aggressive rate cuts over the next few years in an attempt to front-run the FOMC next easing cycle. The U.S. central bank initially resisted the pressure to pivot, but relented at its December meeting, when it indicated that "talk" of cutting borrowing costs had already begun.
The Fed’s pivot accelerated the pullback in yields, sending the 2-year note below 4.40 %, a significant retracement from the cycle high of 5.25%. Simultaneously, the 10-year note plunged beneath the 4.0% threshold, when weeks earlier it was threatening to breach the psychological 5.0% level. In this context, the U.S. dollar index plummeted, hitting its weakest point since August.
The Fed’s unexpected dovish pivot is a clear signal that officials want to shift policy in time to engineer a soft landing; in other words, they are prioritizing growth over inflation. This bias won’t change overnight, but will likely consolidate further in the near term, so the path of least resistance remains lower for both bond yields and the U.S. dollar, at least for the first couple of months of 2024.
Navigational winds, however, could shift in favor of the greenback by the end of the first quarter, when additional data will become available for a more complete assessment of the macroeconomic picture.
The significant relaxation of financial conditions observed in November and December, which ignited a powerful surge in stocks, is likely to amplify the wealth effect heading into the new year, helping sustain sturdy household consumption—the key driver of GDP. In this context, the prospect of an economic upswing in the medium term should not be completely ruled out.
Any reacceleration in growth should boost employment gains and reinforce labor market tightness, putting upward pressure on wages. In this environment, inflation could settle well above the 2.0% target while staying skewed to the upside, preventing the Federal Reserve from pursuing a forceful easing campaign.
Although there is a heightened sense of optimism regarding the U.S. inflation outlook following encouraging CPI and Core PCE reports in the latter part of 2023, it is premature to declare victory. Any pause in progress or an upward reversal of the underlying trend in consumer prices next year could be cataclysmic for sentiment, prompting a hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations.
If you are bullish, trail your stops, wait your time to recover the market.As the volatility is increasing think also baout less position sizing or position reducing to minimize riskks.
Also read the updates below USDJPY chart, that will help you to understand this weeks events better
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Bad Data for Dollar PMI OURThe market waiting for Friday non farm
correcting continuation
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Trend bullishLongs got hedged short at 16853. We will solve short hedges, and Take profit, and add some more longs, but not yet.We wait for new buy signal.
US data confirms the cooling narrative
The ISM manufacturing data suggests the sector continues to contract while job opening numbers point to a slower pace of hiring. Friday's jobs report will be key this week though, with the composition of jobs growth almost as important as the payrolls number itself in determining the prospect for rate cuts in 2024
Data provides an important test for recent market moves
Financial markets responded aggressively to the Federal Reserve’s dovish signals at the December FOMC meeting when their individual dot plots pointed to three rate cuts in 2024. This gave market participants the confidence to ramp up the pricing of potentially even more aggressive easing coming through, helped additionally by a very soft core PCE deflator print. Markets are now anticipating six 25bp moves, starting as soon as March.
We have been predicting 150bp of interest rate cuts in 2024 for some time, but we remain a little nervous that the market has moved so far so quickly even though the jobs market remains tight and the activity story right now remains pretty solid. March still looks a little early to us for the first rate cut – we favour May – and this week’s data flow will be important in gauging the potential timing of a first rate cut.
Manufacturing continues to languish
Today’s reports aren't especially conclusive though. The US ISM manufacturing index improved more than expected in December to stand at 47.4 versus the 47.1 consensus forecast and up from 46.7 level recorded in November. Nonetheless, this remains a weak report. It is the 14th consecutive sub-50 print – 50 is the breakeven level - indicating the sector has been contracting since the fourth quarter of last year. The details show production rose to 50.3 from 48.5, so there is a very modest increase in output given it is above 50, but new orders softened to 47.1 from 48.3 and the backlog of orders series also remained weak, suggesting production is likely to drop back below 50 again next month. As the chart below shows, it suggests ongoing stagnation is the most likely path ahead for the sector.
Employment rose to 48.1 from 45.8, but this is still below that 50 breakeven level so merely indicates that the pace of job shedding slowed in December. The good news is that prices paid fell back quite sharply to 45.2 from 49.9, suggesting very little inflation threat from the sector, giving the Fed the room to respond flexibly to incoming activity data
The jobs market remains key and further softening looks likely
Separately, the November JOLTS report data that showed the number of job openings fell to 8.79m in November from 8.852m in October. There were quite a lot of revisions, but the main takeaway is that the level is weaker than the consensus expectation of 8.821m and the trend shows businesses are becoming more cautious on hiring in general with the number of job openings at their lowest since early 2021. Admittedly, there are still significant numbers of vacancies, but hiring rates slowed to the lowest level since July 2020 and the quit rate – a measure of people willing to leave their job and used as a gauge to see how confident workers are they can find better-paid work elsewhere – dropped to its weakest reading since 3Q 2020. Consequently, it appears workers are noticing businesses are becoming more reluctant to hire staff.
A measure of US factory activity remained stuck in contraction territory for a 14th month at the end of 2023, restrained by weaker orders. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing gauge edged up 0.7 point to 47.4 last month, helped by a pickup in production, according to data released Wednesday. Readings below 50 indicate contraction, and the figure was near economists’ expectations.
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Daily Global Market UpdateThe Euro-Dollar pair experienced a slight decline in the last session, dropping by 0.2%. The Stochastic RSI indicates that we are currently in an oversold market condition.
Dollar-Yen Pair's Gains
The Dollar-Yen pair saw an increase of 0.7% in the last session. The RSI is currently giving a positive signal, suggesting potential continued upward movement.
Gold's Decline
Gold fell by 0.8% against the dollar in the last trading session. The CCI is currently giving a negative signal, hinting at a potential continued downtrend.
Global Financial Headlines
The US dollar has risen, bolstered by high US Treasury yields and a cautious market sentiment affecting Wall Street. Traders are now awaiting further economic data. Job openings in the US saw a decrease to their lowest level since March 2021, indicating a cooling job market. European markets have also experienced a sharp decline, with various sectors showing mixed performances.
Upcoming Economic Highlights
Key economic events to watch out for include the US ADP Employment Change, Initial Jobless Claims, Germany's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, and Japan's Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI, among others. These data points are crucial for investors and traders to watch as they provide insights into the economic health of these countries.
US ADP Employment Change - 1315 GMT
US Initial Jobless Claims - 1330 GMT
Germany's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices - 1300 hours GMT
Spain's 30y Bond Auction - 0940 GMT
Japan's Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI - 0030 GMT
Japan's Monetary Base - 2350 GMT
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We bought nasdaq 16334 again, but all positions still hedged.Middle East tensions grow
Further tension in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher yesterday. ICE Brent managed to settle a little more than 3.1% higher on the day. Two car bomb explosions at a memorial for Qassem Soleimani (a senior Iranian general who was killed in a US airstrike in Iraq in 2020) left nearly 100 people dead. While it is not clear who was behind the attack, it only adds to the growing tensions in the region. In North Africa, Libya has also been forced to shut its largest oil field, Sharara, after protesters entered the field, which was producing around 270Mbbls/d ahead of the shutting.
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Short hedges still avtiveNQ will go deeper down.I will wait to cover more longs
ADP Number too high.
The market will wait till 5th January
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US100 ENTRIES FOR SHORT,Longs All Trap Zones for 5th Jan.2023CLICK ON THE CHART BELOW
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CORRECTION: WE HAVE STILL 2024, but On the title I wrote 2023. Sorryy.Updates are for Jan. 5th 2024บันทึกช่วยจำ
we tickto our strategyIf you are short already ,stay bearish
not good time to buy nq now
SHORT HEDGE FROM16853 still active
non farm payroll very sstrong
waiting now for ISM 10 am est
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in government, health care, social assistance, and construction, while transportation and warehousing lost jobs. This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics.
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Shorted SELL again16317 and 16378, and will short again 16452- 16520based on Single prints. Waiting for 2p.m, news
Next short level (if posible 16520)
The long term investors now confirming that FED has no pressure to cut rates
with other wors, good news for the economy, softlanging, but less rate cuts exppectations. BUT we are at the first week of 2024
and we have 52 weeks ahead.
Always put stop loss limits, and have good money mange ment
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Short hedge still valid, as Triple tranche tests to solve them between 16330-13630 failed.As the Fridays low was in the weaer area, and no important data released today, FED Mmber comments initiated the short term ralley.
Inflation data are expected during the next days
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i HEDGED EUROUSD short now here the main reasons based on myopinionInflation in Japan's capital keeps slowing, takes pressure off BOJ
Core inflation in Japan's capital slowed for the second straight month in December, data showed on Tuesday, taking some pressure off the central bank to rush into exiting ultra-loose monetary policy. The Tokyo inflation data, closely watched as a leading indicator of nationwide price trends, is among key factors the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will scrutinise at the next policy-setting meeting on Jan. 22-23. Tokyo's core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose 2.1% in December from a year earlier, government data showed, matching a median market forecast.
US dollar pulls back
The trend is still bullish, I see no reason yet to cut or hedge the longs(This is no recoammandation, so please do not copy my trades, as I write them here also for myown documentations!!!!! And always use stops, and sticktoyour own tradding strateies, as neither me nor others here are Moneyy and fundmanagers, who are allowed to give anyy trading advices nor we are in a CFTC authorities list. We just share our trading ideas, whatfor we tae respnossibility only. But not for your trades!!!) Also Fed’s Bowman Backs Eventual Rate Cuts If Inflation Falls Further
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said inflation could fall toward the Fed’s 2% target with interest rates held at current levels, and offered potential backing for lowering borrowing costs if price pressures fade. “Should inflation continue to fall closer to our 2% goal over time, it will eventually become appropriate to begin the process of lowering our policy rate to prevent policy from becoming overly restrictive,” Bowman said in prepared remarks to the South Carolina Bankers Association in Columbia. “We are not yet at that point,” she said, adding that she remains cautious with upside risks to ..
the staements, the current fundamentals and rate cuts expectations that are now on my opinion vanishing+technical side of NQ gives me enough reasons to stay short and keep my short hedges
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NASDAQ US100(Short term) Analysis for 09. Jan.- 12.Jan.2024
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Based on the urrent developement of price I stay short( temporariliy) unless the bullsshow their cards, if they will defend the mid trem trend, or if they lose control. To break it down please watch the streaming above.Thank you.บันทึกช่วยจำ
sold 16703 and 16728bearish hidden signal
mentioned in streaming above
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16649 is day low, if breaking below it can go to 16631,if holds below that level, 16616.16495.16439,16357,etc. but have to break them firstบันทึกช่วยจำ
Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods fell 0.4 percent in December, the third consecutive decline. In December, nearly 60 percent of the decrease can be traced to a 1.2-percent
drop in prices for final demand energy. The index for final demand foods moved down 0.9 percent,
while prices for final demand goods less foods and energy were unchanged.
Product detail: In December, half of the decrease in the index for final demand goods is attributable
to prices for diesel fuel, which dropped 12.4 percent. The indexes for jet fuel; eggs for fresh use; non-
carbonated soft drinks; passenger cars; and hay, hayseeds, and oilseeds also moved lower. In contrast,
prices for gasoline rose 2.1 percent. The indexes for carbonated soft drinks and for nonferrous scrap
also increased.
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Short covering ralley started: The bears taking profits and waiting to cover thier positions hiher. The NQ will rise first higher.Thureday is the most important day. The bears will attack soon again,after short covering ralley has fullfilled its Fib targetบันทึกช่วยจำ
Cofirmatio n alert signals NQ bulls missed their chances, so bear will more intense take control back again.Addiotionally Fed’s Waller: Strong Economy Gives Fed The Flexibility To Move Methodically On Cuts- Timing Of Cuts Will Be Up To Deliberations Of The FOMC
- Fed Is Very Aware Of The Risk Of Overtightening
I continue to stay bearish
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The medium term trend is clearly bullish, but i shorted hedged the trades very suvvessfully high enough, to gain profits of my longs and my shorts. The current market data many have feared manyy, The December report is expected to be closely watched by investors who are looking for signs of a "soft landing" in the US economy where inflation cools soon, but I DONT ANY CREDITS TO THOSE NEWS; sO I CONFIDENTLY STAY AND STICK TO MY OWN STRATEGY ONLY; AND ONLY: No matter what news, or what FED says or not says, does or not does. My strategy says hedge, and go with Bears, so I do.And inore every single noise . And I take warrants for my own trades only ! You are responssible for your own trades, no one else!บันทึกช่วยจำ
Jobless claimes spike. but phili index is warning ...I stay short hedged, and inreased my hedges at the highest level possible...if the Price ging higher, I will sell more shorts the NQaบันทึกช่วยจำ
Fed’s Bostic Reiterates View Rate Cuts to Start in Third Quarter Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he wants to see more evidence inflation is on track toward the central bank’s 2% target, repeating that he doesn’t expect policymakers to cut interest rates until the third quarter.บันทึกช่วยจำ
Short hedges solved,Only our lon positions active.Trend strong bullish, and we ride the bullish trend.บันทึกช่วยจำ
I STAY long, no strong pullback expected, Trend strong bullishบันทึกช่วยจำ
SHORT term profit taking expected,so we will have a backdraft(not too deep),before it ries higher.I stay bullish ,but today I wont buy NQ ,Instead I keep on my long term,mid term and short term bullish long positions, as they are in no significant risky mode. My vote:NQ Bullish,and it will rse higherบันทึกช่วยจำ
The forecasted and PREDICTED Profit taking happened: aND THIS IS GOOD111tHE TREND IS VERY STRONG BULLISH!!!TODAY INTEREST RATES DECISION:FED!!!I have bought strongly Nasdaqa athe the pullback dip,and will buy STRONGLYMORE: The direction i crystalclear. BULISH!!!!mAE DAYTRADING AND YOU WILL 100% LOSE!!!! SATY WITH THE TREND AND IGNORE ALL DAY TRADERS NOIE,and you will well if you do it right the wayI do,MONEY!Big Money!
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I stay long, added some more buys, Bullish trend, The market starting reversal. We can expect a drop first, before the correction has confirmed the wedge low,following wedge high confirmation. Abreakout upside the wedge will be the next buy signal. Next waiting data is n Friday.Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have moderated since early last year but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.n support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. fundamentally bullish,technically, wedge confirming,building new support,before rising higherบันทึกช่วยจำ
my added longs at 17222 working well, NQ now ar 17328.I STAY LONG BULLISHBased on the provided information, let's break down the key points and their potential implications for the stock market sentiment:
Economic Activity: The initial description suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace, with job gains remaining strong and unemployment low. However, there's a mention of moderated job gains and elevated inflation, which indicates a nuanced economic landscape.
Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate, indicating a steady monetary policy stance. However, they are closely monitoring incoming data, particularly inflation indicators, and are not expecting to reduce the target range until they have greater confidence in achieving their 2 percent inflation objective.
Market Reaction: The bond market initially rallied, with Treasury yields falling notably, on the back of weaker-than-expected job creation data and concerns about the health of regional banks, particularly highlighted by a New York bank's surprise loss. This led to increased expectations of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, with markets pricing in a higher likelihood of rate cuts starting as soon as March.
Fed's Statement Impact: The Federal Reserve's statement after its meeting tempered the bond market rally by signaling that it's not in a rush to ease policy despite concerns about the health of regional banks and slower job creation. This statement led to a slight reversal in Treasury yields but still kept them lower on the day.
Investor Sentiment: Investor sentiment appears to be influenced by various factors, including economic data releases, corporate earnings reports (such as the New York bank's unexpected loss), and Federal Reserve communications. There's a heightened focus on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks for further clarity on the central bank's stance and potential future actions.
Rate Cut Expectations: Market participants have adjusted their expectations for rate cuts in 2024, with increased bets on rate cuts starting as early as March, driven by weaker economic data and concerns about the banking sector's health.
Global Market Impact: The Treasury rally has had a spillover effect on global government bond markets, particularly in the eurozone, where slower-than-expected inflation readings in France have fueled expectations of European Central Bank interest-rate cuts.
In terms of stock market interpretation, the initial bond market rally driven by concerns about the economy and potential rate cuts could be interpreted as bearish sentiment for stocks, particularly for financial institutions. However, the subsequent Federal Reserve statement signaling a cautious approach to policy easing might mitigate some of the bearish sentiment, although uncertainty remains until further clarity is provided by Powell's remarks. Overall, the market appears sensitive to economic data releases, corporate earnings reports, and central bank communications in shaping investor sentiment and market direction.
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The statement "technically on higher timeframes we have higher highs and higher lows" suggests a bullish trend in the market. Here's what it means:Higher Highs: In technical analysis, when the price of an asset reaches a peak higher than the previous peak, it's termed as a "higher high." This pattern indicates that buyers are in control, pushing the price to new highs.
Higher Lows: Similarly, when the price of an asset retraces after reaching a peak but forms a trough (low point) higher than the previous low, it's termed as a "higher low." This pattern signifies that even during pullbacks, buyers are stepping in at higher price levels, indicating strength in the uptrend.
When both higher highs and higher lows are consistently observed on higher timeframes (such as daily, weekly, or monthly charts), it suggests a bullish trend in the market. Traders and investors often view this as a signal to enter or stay long in the market, as it indicates sustained upward momentum.
However, it's essential to consider other factors such as volume, market sentiment, and fundamental analysis to confirm the strength of the trend and make informed trading decisions. Additionally, technical analysis is not foolproof and can sometimes provide false signals, so risk management strategies should always be employed.
Here are some additional points regarding higher highs and higher lows in technical analysis:
Confirmation of Trend: The presence of higher highs and higher lows confirms the existence of an uptrend in the market. This is a fundamental concept in technical analysis known as "the trend is your friend." Traders often seek to align their trades with the prevailing trend as it tends to offer higher probabilities of success.
Support and Resistance Levels: Higher lows act as potential support levels, indicating areas where buyers are likely to step in and prevent the price from declining further. Conversely, higher highs can serve as resistance levels, representing price levels where selling pressure may increase, causing the price to pause or reverse temporarily.
Trend Continuation Signals: Each successive higher high and higher low reinforces the strength of the uptrend, signaling a continuation of bullish momentum. Traders may look for opportunities to enter or add to positions during pullbacks to higher lows, anticipating that the uptrend will persist.
Divergence Analysis: Discrepancies between price movements and technical indicators, such as oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), can provide valuable insight. For example, if the price forms a higher high, but the oscillator fails to confirm the higher high, it may signal weakening momentum and potential trend reversal.
Timeframe Considerations: Higher highs and higher lows should ideally be observed across multiple timeframes to validate the strength of the uptrend. Higher timeframes, such as weekly or monthly charts, carry more significance as they reflect broader market trends, while shorter timeframes, like hourly or 15-minute charts, may exhibit more noise and fluctuations.
Risk Management: While higher highs and higher lows suggest a bullish bias, prudent risk management is essential. Setting stop-loss orders below recent higher lows can help limit potential losses in case of trend reversals. Additionally, traders should be mindful of overextended trends and be prepared for potential corrections or reversals.
Market Psychology: The formation of higher highs and higher lows reflects the underlying psychology of market participants. Rising prices encourage optimism and buying behavior, while the establishment of higher lows reflects a reluctance among buyers to let the price fall below certain levels, indicating confidence in the uptrend.
In summary, the presence of higher highs and higher lows in technical analysis signifies a bullish trend, providing traders with valuable insights for trend identification, entry points, and risk management strategies.
Here are some more insights on higher highs and higher lows in technical analysis:
Price Patterns: Higher highs and higher lows can form various price patterns, providing additional trading opportunities. For example, an uptrend characterized by consistent higher highs and higher lows may exhibit a bullish continuation pattern like an ascending triangle or a bull flag. Recognizing these patterns can help traders anticipate potential breakout or continuation moves.
Volume Analysis: Volume analysis complements the study of higher highs and higher lows. Increasing volume during upward price movements confirms bullish momentum, indicating strong participation from buyers. Conversely, decreasing volume during pullbacks suggests weakening selling pressure, supporting the notion of higher lows. Monitoring volume trends alongside price action can validate the strength of the uptrend.
Trend Reversal Signals: While higher highs and higher lows typically indicate a bullish trend, their absence or failure to materialize can signal a potential trend reversal. A series of lower highs and lower lows, known as a downtrend, emerges when sellers gain control and push prices lower. Recognizing the transition from higher highs and higher lows to lower highs and lower lows is crucial for identifying trend reversals and adjusting trading strategies accordingly.
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Market Sentiment and News Events: While technical analysis focuses on price action, market sentiment and fundamental factors can influence the formation of higher highs and higher lows. Positive news events, economic data releases, or shifts in market sentiment can fuel buying pressure, leading to the establishment of higher highs. Conversely, negative news or sentiment may trigger selling pressure, resulting in lower highs and lower lows.Multiple Timeframe Analysis: Combining multiple timeframes enhances the reliability of higher highs and higher lows as trend indicators. Aligning the shorter-term trend (e.g., daily or hourly charts) with the longer-term trend (e.g., weekly or monthly charts) provides a comprehensive view of the market dynamics. This holistic approach helps traders identify high-probability trading opportunities while minimizing false signals.
Adaptability to Different Markets: The concept of higher highs and higher lows is applicable to various financial markets, including stocks, forex, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. Whether analyzing price charts of individual assets or broader market indices, the principles of identifying trends through higher highs and higher lows remain consistent across different markets, making them versatile tools for traders.
Continuous Learning and Improvement: As with any aspect of technical analysis, mastering the interpretation of higher highs and higher lows requires continuous learning and refinement of analytical skills. Traders should practice identifying and analyzing price trends across different market conditions, incorporating feedback from past trades, and adapting their strategies based on evolving market dynamics.
By delving deeper into these aspects, traders can enhance their understanding of higher highs and higher lows, empowering them to make informed trading decisions and navigate the complexities of financial markets more effectively.
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The Nasdaq 100 (NQ) jumping higher following the news can be interpreted in the context of the information provided and broader market dynamics. Here's an analysis:Market Sentiment Shift: Despite initial concerns about slower job creation and uncertainties surrounding the health of regional banks, the market sentiment shifted positively following the Federal Reserve's statement indicating a cautious approach to policy easing. The Fed's decision to keep interest rates steady, coupled with its commitment to monitor incoming data, likely reassured investors.
Rate Cut Expectations: While there were anticipations of rate cuts starting as early as March due to weaker economic data and concerns about the banking sector, the Fed's statement tempered these expectations. The indication that rate cuts may not be imminent and the emphasis on inflation reaching the 2 percent target could have eased concerns about aggressive monetary policy tightening.
Risk Appetite and Tech Stocks: The Nasdaq 100, being heavily weighted towards technology stocks, often responds positively to accommodative monetary policy and lower interest rates. The market's interpretation of the Fed's stance as less dovish than previously anticipated may have led to increased risk appetite among investors, particularly in technology-related sectors.
Global Market Impact: The rally in U.S. Treasuries, coupled with expectations of rate cuts, likely had a broader impact on global markets, contributing to positive sentiment across major indices. The interconnectedness of global financial markets means that developments in one region can influence investor behavior worldwide.
Technical Factors: From a technical analysis perspective, the 250-point jump in the Nasdaq 100 could signal a breakout or continuation of the uptrend, especially if it surpasses key resistance levels or forms new higher highs on the price chart. Traders may interpret this as a bullish signal and look for opportunities to capitalize on the upward momentum.
Overall, the Nasdaq 100's significant upward movement suggests that investors interpreted the combination of the Federal Reserve's statement and other market factors as favorable for risk assets, particularly technology stocks. However, it's essential to continue monitoring economic data, central bank communications, and broader market trends to assess the sustainability of the rally and make informed investment decisions.
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If the market is rising while Powell is speaking, it could suggest several potential interpretations:Dovish Tone: Powell's remarks may be perceived as more accommodative or dovish than anticipated by investors. If Powell emphasizes a cautious approach to monetary policy or hints at potential future stimulus measures, it could boost market sentiment and lead to a rally in equities.
Clarity and Assurance: Powell's communication style and clarity in addressing market concerns could provide reassurance to investors, leading to increased confidence and buying activity. Clear guidance on the Fed's policy intentions and economic outlook may alleviate uncertainty and contribute to a positive market response.
Supportive Policies: If Powell discusses supportive policies or initiatives aimed at bolstering economic growth and stability, such as continued monetary stimulus or targeted measures to address specific challenges, it could fuel optimism among investors and drive equity prices higher.
Market Expectations Met: If Powell's remarks align closely with market expectations or if there are no surprises in his speech, investors may interpret this as a confirmation of their existing outlook, leading to a continuation of the prevailing market trend.
Technical Factors: From a technical perspective, the market's rise during Powell's speech could indicate a continuation of the underlying trend or a breakout from a consolidation phase. Traders may interpret this price action as a bullish signal and respond accordingly.
Delayed Reaction: Sometimes, market reactions to news or events, including speeches by central bank officials, may not occur immediately. Investors may need time to digest the information, assess its implications, and adjust their positions accordingly. Therefore, the market's rise during Powell's speech could represent a delayed response to his remarks.
Overall, the market rising while Powell is speaking suggests that investors are reacting positively to his comments, policy stance, or the overall tone of his speech. However, it's essential to consider the full context of Powell's remarks, ongoing market dynamics, and potential external factors influencing investor sentiment to accurately interpret the market's behavior.
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A delayed reaction in financial markets refers to a situation where the market response to a particular event or news occurs after a significant time lag, rather than immediately. Here are several key aspects to consider regarding delayed reactions in financial markets:Information Processing: Market participants may need time to fully process and interpret complex information, especially if it involves detailed economic data, policy announcements, or geopolitical developments. This processing delay can result in a delayed market reaction as investors analyze the implications of the news.
Assessment of Impact: Traders and investors may take time to assess the potential impact of a specific event or news on various asset classes, sectors, or market conditions. They may consider factors such as the magnitude of the news, its relevance to market fundamentals, and its implications for monetary policy, economic growth, or corporate earnings.
Behavioral Factors: Behavioral biases, such as herding behavior or anchoring, can influence investor decision-making and contribute to delayed market reactions. For example, investors may wait for confirmation from other market participants before adjusting their positions, leading to a collective delay in response.
Technical Factors: Technical factors, such as liquidity conditions, trading volumes, and market structure, can also influence the timing of market reactions. Thin liquidity or low trading volumes may prolong the time it takes for prices to fully adjust to new information, resulting in a delayed reaction.
Time Zone Differences: In global financial markets, time zone differences can lead to delayed reactions as news or events may be disseminated during non-trading hours in certain regions. Market participants in different time zones may need time to react once trading resumes, contributing to a delayed market response.
Market Efficiency: While financial markets generally strive for efficiency, there are instances where inefficiencies or delays in information dissemination can lead to delayed reactions. Market inefficiencies may arise due to regulatory constraints, technological limitations, or information asymmetry among market participants.
Volatility and Noise: Market volatility and noise can obscure the immediate impact of news or events, causing investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach before adjusting their positions. This uncertainty can result in a delayed market reaction as investors seek clarity and confirmation.
Overall, delayed reactions are a common phenomenon in financial markets and can occur for various reasons. Traders and investors should be aware of the potential for delayed market responses and exercise patience and vigilance when interpreting market dynamics and making investment decisions.
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some additional insights into delayed reactions in financial markets:Market Participants' Time Horizons: Different market participants may have varying time horizons for decision-making. While short-term traders may react quickly to news or events, longer-term investors may take a more deliberate approach, considering the potential implications over an extended period. This difference in time horizons can contribute to delayed market reactions as investors with longer-term perspectives assess the news' impact on their investment thesis.
Market Sentiment and Emotions: Market sentiment and emotions, such as fear, greed, and uncertainty, can influence the timing of market reactions. During periods of heightened volatility or emotional extremes, investors may exhibit heightened caution or indecision, leading to delays in adjusting their positions. As emotions subside and rationality prevails, market participants may gradually respond to the news, resulting in a delayed reaction.
Policy and Regulatory Changes: Changes in regulatory or policy frameworks, such as monetary policy adjustments or legislative reforms, can introduce uncertainty and complexity into financial markets. Market participants may require time to assess the potential implications of these changes, leading to delayed reactions as they await further guidance or clarification from policymakers or regulatory authorities.
Economic Data Revisions: Revisions to economic data releases, such as GDP growth, employment figures, or inflation rates, can trigger delayed market reactions. Initial data releases may be met with a muted response as investors await confirmation or revisions in subsequent releases. Once revised data becomes available, market participants may adjust their positions accordingly, resulting in a delayed reaction.
Cross-Asset Relationships: Interconnections between different asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities, can influence the timing of market reactions. Changes in one asset class may have delayed repercussions in other asset classes as investors rebalance their portfolios or adjust their exposure based on changing market dynamics.
Eventual Recognition of Trends: In some cases, delayed reactions may reflect the eventual recognition of underlying trends or patterns in financial markets. Market participants may initially overlook or underestimate the significance of certain developments, only to adjust their positions later as the implications become more apparent. This delayed recognition can lead to sustained market movements as investors realign their views with evolving market conditions.
Understanding the factors contributing to delayed reactions in financial markets is essential for traders and investors to navigate market dynamics effectively. By recognizing the potential for delayed responses and monitoring key drivers of market sentiment, participants can make informed decisions and position themselves strategically to capitalize on emerging opportunities.
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Based on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's recent statements, here's an interpretation of his remarks and their potential implications for the market:Soft Landing and Policy Rate: Powell acknowledges that the economy has not yet achieved a "soft landing," indicating that the Fed's efforts to slow economic growth and control inflation without causing a recession are ongoing. He suggests that the current policy rate is likely at its peak, implying a potential shift in monetary policy towards a more neutral stance.
Future Rate Adjustments: Powell states that if the economy evolves as expected, the Fed will dial back the policy rate this year. However, he also emphasizes that he is prepared to maintain the current policy rate for longer if necessary, highlighting the Fed's willingness to adapt its policy stance based on economic conditions.
Inflation Outlook: Powell discusses the need for greater confidence in inflation data, suggesting that the Fed is closely monitoring inflation trends to ensure that policy decisions are based on accurate signals. He indicates that while stronger economic growth is not necessarily a problem, the Fed is focused on achieving confidence in its inflation outlook.
Rate Reduction Expectations: Powell mentions that almost everyone on the committee believes it will be appropriate to reduce rates, indicating a consensus among Fed policymakers regarding the direction of future monetary policy. However, he emphasizes that the Fed is currently in a risk management mode and will adjust its stance based on incoming data.
Labor Market and Supply Chains: Powell highlights the importance of monitoring the labor market for signs of unexpected weakening, suggesting that such developments could prompt the Fed to cut rates sooner. He also notes that supply chains have not fully recovered, indicating ongoing challenges in certain sectors of the economy.
Market Response: Powell's remarks suggest a cautious approach to monetary policy, with a focus on balancing inflationary pressures with the need to support economic growth. The market may interpret Powell's comments as indicating a willingness to act if necessary to address economic risks, potentially leading to increased volatility as investors adjust their expectations for future rate changes.
Overall, Powell's statements provide insight into the Fed's current thinking on monetary policy and its assessment of economic conditions. The market will likely closely monitor future developments and data releases for further guidance on the Fed's policy trajectory.
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The US Federal Reserve's rate decisions are closely watched by market participants and economists for clues about the central bank's future monetary policy stance, including the timing of potential interest rate cuts. Here's how the Fed's rate decisions could hold clues on the timing of future cuts:Interest Rate Levels: The Fed's decision to maintain, raise, or cut interest rates provides direct insight into its assessment of current economic conditions and future outlook. A decision to cut interest rates typically signals concerns about economic weakness or the need to stimulate growth, which could prompt speculation about the timing of future rate cuts.
Accompanying Statement: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) issues a statement alongside its rate decision, outlining the rationale behind its actions and providing forward guidance on future policy moves. Changes in the language of the statement, such as references to inflation, employment, or economic risks, can offer clues about the likelihood and timing of future rate cuts.
Economic Projections: The Fed releases economic projections, including forecasts for GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, and interest rates, during its meetings. Revisions to these projections, particularly downward revisions or shifts in expectations, can influence market perceptions about the need for future rate cuts and their timing.
Press Conference: Following certain FOMC meetings, the Fed Chair holds a press conference to provide additional context and insights into the central bank's decision-making process. Comments made during the press conference, including hints about future policy actions or the Fed's assessment of economic risks, can shape market expectations for rate cuts.
Voting Patterns: The FOMC is composed of voting members who rotate annually among regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents. Observing changes in the composition of voting members and their voting patterns can offer insights into the evolving consensus within the committee regarding the need for rate cuts and their timing.
Economic Data Reactions: Market reactions to key economic data releases, such as employment reports, inflation figures, and GDP growth estimates, can influence the Fed's decision-making process and shape expectations for future rate cuts. Weak economic data may increase the likelihood of rate cuts, while strong data may delay or reduce expectations for cuts.
Market Expectations: Market participants closely monitor futures markets, options, and interest rate swaps to gauge expectations for future rate moves. Changes in market-implied probabilities of rate cuts, particularly in response to Fed communications or economic developments, can provide insights into market sentiment and expectations regarding the timing of future cuts.
Overall, the US Federal Reserve's rate decisions serve as important indicators of its monetary policy stance and future actions. By analyzing the accompanying statements, economic projections, press conference remarks, voting patterns, economic data reactions, and market expectations, investors and economists can glean clues about the timing of potential future rate cuts.
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"CLUES" stands for indicators or hints that provide information or insight into something. In the context of your initial statement about the US Federal Reserve's rate decision potentially holding clues on the timing of future rate cuts, "clues" refers to signals or indications that could suggest when the Fed might decide to lower interest rates in the future. These clues could include statements from Fed officials, changes in economic data, market reactions, or shifts in monetary policy expectations. Essentially, "clues" are pieces of information that investors and analysts use to try to anticipate the Fed's future actions.บันทึกช่วยจำ
Again:Remember what I said above: It will go down first(Bearish Fakeout) to sweep the stops before rallies higher. Patience is King, riding he waves trending!บันทึกช่วยจำ
new long signl17165/17175บันทึกช่วยจำ
As I said yeserday: i SATY LONG!!! bULLISH TREND;AND BULLISH PRESSURESTARTING TO PUMP...NQ will rise higher
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Already bullish, also my youngest long yesterday at 17222(Scroll up,see the updates of yesteray!)...NQ responding well to my trading system,US Factory Gauge Climbs to Highest Since 2022 on Orders Growth A measure of US factory activity climbed to a 15-month high at the start of the year, fueled by the strongest orders growth since May 2022 and suggesting manufacturing is starting to stabilize. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing gauge rose 2 points to 49.1 last month, according to data released Thursday. While still below the level of 50 that indicates shrinking activity, the figure exceeded all The 5.5-point increase in the orders index marked the largest monthly advance in more than three years, helped by robust demand in the last half of 2023. Production expanded for the first time in four months, while a gauge of customer inventories showed the leanest stockpiles since October 2022.บันทึกช่วยจำ
The nation’s purchasing and supply management executives are optimistic about the economy’s prospects as the Federal Reserve has signaled it will lower interest rates this year.Four industries reported growth in January, including apparel and transportation equipment, while 13 indicated contracting activity.
Fed policymakers on Wednesday left their benchmark rate unchanged for a fourth-straight meeting and signaled an openness to cutting it. After the meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell dashed investors’ hopes that reductions would begin in March.
The ISM’s survey pointed to remaining hurdles for a recovery in US manufacturing. While domestic demand has been steady, the group’s export orders gauge showed overseas customers are pulling back. The index fell 4.7 points to 45.2 in January, marking the fastest rate of contraction since May 2020.
Price pressures also bubbled up in January. The ISM’s prices-paid index showed materials costs rose for the first time since April.
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22Hours ago I published this mind:,, I m still bullish(already published minds yesterdy= NQ breaking now Day High......Expecting to reach the next target 17526.17575,17651(Potentia l profit taing for short term traders and day traders, but not for me)...more infos and updates belowmy trade idea(US100).Goodluck for Friday!!!!
The current price is 17626, so who stoad bullish, against all odds!!!! ,as many daytraders start immediately to sell NQ (interestingly everytime the bullish momentum is very strong,and please dont ask me why they are doing it,as I really cannot see in their heads!) The NQ jumps and moves higher. Al the temporarily bearish Powell´s comments, does not shock the bulls currently any more, as after each pullbak,they mobilize their forces to push NQ higher:And it means something! A lot of ,a very big and hige amount of bullish money and force is supporting this uptrend.... As I dont limit my profits, and let them growing up as huge as they can(meansI dont take profit,until my system commands me to do that!!!) here are my thoughts: If the NQ breaks above 17675,then we potentially(Possibly see the next target at 17740-Surely I am expecting a corectin inbetween,but: If NQ rise very slowly, even in slow motion, it will go much more higher!!!To the next level at 18211
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I stay bullish. Cuz trend is bullish. Powell wants 3 Big rates cuts this year That says it allบันทึกช่วยจำ
I am bullish and staying bullish US100 Trend bullish, BUT!!!!! It will go down first before rising higher and making new all time highs:Levels targetd on my list are 17551 17465 1743417381(If this level breaks then 17307,17240,etc...)We are in a clear Bullish trend,so this pahes of the maret is a breathing(Profit taing phase/Shift. As Gaps ath these level are open, and NQ must fill them next. If NQ riing higher firtto 17607(This is no good level to buy or sell) ,wait if it breaks 17679., and then for conformation.Better NQ reaches the downwards level first...Below 16015 hort term Bearih trend will begin.บันทึกช่วยจำ
US100 STRONG BULLISH TRENDFED hawkish, trae balance unchange,d, trend is bullish.Surely I tay bullish, but ....the gap below not filled yet. Till Friay NQ maing new higher highs....until 8:30 a.m.
Supports 17680,17648,17564 Bull attack area,17505 Bullish well defended zone,17428,(if losing back to 17328-17250
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Strong bullish,I stay bullish Softer US Dollar and Sovereign Debt Prices as Central Banks Not Rushing to Ease but Equities Showing Some Resilienceบันทึกช่วยจำ
PERCET!!!!! my nect target i 18222. The tren strong bullish, poible temporarily pullback(not today) will be ued a potential bullih long entrie. If so, I will tell ya here exactly, at what levels the poible profit taking will happen.So far so good, I am looking now for the closing price to calculate the next weeks action. If you have been acompanying me,on this bullih journy ofar, congrateulation .If otherwise, and you made profit, congrat too. and if you had some loes, dont mind,but try tolearn of mistakes, I wish yall luck, and have a good weekendบันทึกช่วยจำ
though positive correlation with US dolla,but it doesnt matter, I stay bullish and long.Next wee new inflation data expected, that is making the maret more willing to buy NQ as they expecting inflation down or unchanged, Whatever I stay long until the system tells me clear opposite signalsบันทึกช่วยจำ
As I said:Isaty bullish. There are some guys who are avuing and violating the houe rules of tradingview,for intance the guy below in the omments who called me stupid. Ignore all of them and stic to you traategy. Your uccess is answer enough.The trend is definitely bullish,and more new higher highs and Alltime high are waiting for usบันทึกช่วยจำ
US100 trend bullish, but now we go down first,before rising higher important CPI datas of tomorrow are the reason of sharp profit taking.17890,aan 17801-17838 are down levelpotential targets to be correct,If breaking below,nq will go to 17634-17754 range.If the level hold,new alltime high.But currently short term bearish signal(Short term)บันทึกช่วยจำ
Well! Today CPI data is another very good confirmation why price i the only true and unmanipzlated indicator, and why I never fall into trap of daytrading or following the news:Yesterday(See my last update) my price inicator recommanded me not to buy any more at higher levels,intead staying long, and not selling(because agaist the trend) :lATER I published the signalthat we will go down,and point to the T all level downwards hit again. Interestingly many insiders!!!! of the wall street started to sell NQ on the same time!!!That is indicating that news are made beforethey gonna published. Therefor(I believe) Day trading will cost money. So far so good. Currently I dont hedge my longs short, asno hedge signal,but the maret is in a pretty uncertail short term phase combined with profit taking, and waiting forFriday data, The CPI was alittle bit higher, that was expected, as these data are released alwayslate, and the market is trading the future expectaions. Sure in the summer time(+/- 1 month) NQ will have a typical correction (bigger move). The current short termbearish minor trend is just a correction, but no way a crash!Remember:We are making All time highone after each other ince now for 18 weeks(If you tae out the firt week of January 2024), ALSO THE Israel conflict(Air attack on Raffala, Egypt aiir force defence, Saudi Arabia declaraions that they might break diplomacy with Israel, incase of no cease fire is affecting NQ and generally Wall street for short term.. The stock market does not like wars! Fact! Trend iS bullish! But as I yesterday mentioned we go down, all level hit perfectly. Further potentiall level downs are: 17553, if beaking 17493, 17462 17426 17375 17305 17235 17125 16955 These levels could potentiallyget reached,incase more global economical negative news, and economic datas are published in the next 5-7 days. I wil publish here the new signals(if short hedge open) or if the market starts to reverse- Upside level are: 17725 17798 17892 17944 17955 18036, if broken upsides,then: 18200
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Trend stil BULLISH, but it is no idealday till Friday to buy more longs yet. The Bull/Bear edge is currently 60/40, that is confirming the bear flag(Indication of bullish trend continuation) Range. Neither bulls nor bear will have higher advantage of participating now. Patinece i key. I am still bullish, My longs all active,and I have nohort hedge signalnor anew Buy ignal. If o, I will publish it here immediately. Patince and moneymanagement is King. News couldcreate bull- and bear traps, so be careful Until Fridayบันทึกช่วยจำ
Friday PMI!!!!!Very importantบันทึกช่วยจำ
The levels I published here yesterday are stil active andvalidatedบันทึกช่วยจำ
I have published thisupdate 2H ago accidentlyin the comments secton below.Sorry for thata. The comment was: Dont bUY THIS; IT IS s gwtting down first.the price was at 1482 .Trend Bullsh and earnings awaiting..KI running higher..No good time to get long todayCurrent price is now at 17731!!! The trend is bullish, so fortrend followers like me perfect, a it doesnt affect us.I saty bullish and keep mypositions open. For hort term traders IT IS NOT A GOOD DAY TO GO LONG YET; NOR TO GO short, as momentum divergence is creating a bear trap after the data, that was higher than expected.The market iswaiting for more confirmation of January datas that will be published in the next 2weeks,...also never let trade open on fridays if you are short term trader. For trend followers it is not relevant
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Thi levels are at focus, f the bears take control for a hort time: Surely I tay bullish, but ....the gap below not filled yet. ....until Supports 17680,17648,17564 Bull attack area,17505 Bullish well defended zone,17428,(if losing back to 17328-17250
Level up targets, 17850 17889 17995 17993 18028 18050(Current All Time High)
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If 18050 breakss and closes higher,NQ targets next will be 18200 and 18515บันทึกช่วยจำ
Fundamentally seems the market to acept the future datas, which will be published this week, as it has started a bullissh consoliadtion,to potentially finish the bear flag in the trong bullish trend.I saty bullish,my longs all active,but see no reason yet toincrease more long yet.Trend i bullish, I saty bullih,and will ontinue this strategy,solong as my system tells me the opposite xommands or signalsบันทึกช่วยจำ
Short Hedge opened! 17723.!!!!!I am still bullish, but becuz of current state of the market(China is the reason) i hedged mypositions short. I will take out the short bearish hedges ,if new long signal.Current signal for Day traders is bearish state of the market, so bulls have at this moment lower edge, as Bearish momentumi rising Level For now, risks to our growth forecasts are slightly to the upside. If this leads to stickier inflation...The Fed might end up staying on hold for longer than expected The market is taking dowb FED arguments, therefor going deeper before the Rates vuts, so the FED wont have lower possibilities, not to cut the rate. Down will be 17475 17400 17373 17316 17306 17246 17189 17172 17120 - A break above 17569 will affect NQ RISING to 17606 17701 17720 17802 17887 17939 ,A break above 17939 will bring back NQ to 17984 18043 and higher . China and NVIDA earnings are the reaon that NQ is down for short time. Supercharges Stimulus With Biggest Cut In Mortgage Reference Rate On Record
fter the relentless jawboning in recent days, many were expecting some further easing today from the PBOC, and Beijing did not disappoint when China cut the 5-year loan prime rate (LPR) - which influences mortgage rate pricing - and is also known as China's Libor
The LEI for the US Declined Further in January
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.4 percent in January 2024 to 102.7 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent decline in December 2023. The LEI contracted by 3.0 percent over the six-month period between July 2023 and January 2024, a smaller decrease than the 4.1 percent decline over the previous six months. "The U.S. LEI fell further in January, as weekly hours worked in manufacturing continued to decline and the yield spread remained negative
Fed to Cut US Rates in June, Risks Skewed Towards Later Move
The U.S. Federal Reserve will cut the federal funds rate in June, according to a slim majority of economists polled by Reuters, who also said the greater risk was the first rate cut would come later than forecast rather than earlier. Markets, however, have gone from March to May, and now are priced for June as the most likely time for the first rate reduction.
Although stock markets have surged to record highs, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has jumped nearly 50 basis points to 4.28% this month alone, thanks to a series of releases showing strong growth, a tight labor market, and still-sticky inflation.
A strong majority of 86 of 104 economists in a Feb. 14-20 Reuters poll said the Fed would first cut the fed funds rate - currently 5.25%-5.50% - next quarter, similar to last month's survey.
But a slim majority, 53 of 104, now expect June as the most likely meeting, with another 33 calling for May. The rest put the first reduction sometime in the second half of 2024. No one predicted a March cut, compared to 16 in previous poll.
Over the past month, several Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, said the central bank needed greater confidence in the disinflation trend before cutting rates. Inflation on the Fed's preferred measure is still above the 2% target.
Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation, the Fed's preferred gauge, is forecast to average around 2% in the second half of 2024, according to the poll, right after the Fed starts cutting.
But other inflation measures - the consumer price index (CPI), core CPI, and core PCE - were still seen above target at least until 2026, suggesting the Fed won't be moving quickly on rates once it gets started.
The world's largest economy, which grew at a better than expected annualized pace of 3.3% last quarter, was predicted to expand an average 2.1% this year, above what Fed officials regard as the non-inflationary growth rate of around 1.8%.
Around 85% of economists, 40 of 47, said the greater risk to their forecast was the first rate cut comes later than they expect rather than earlier, a change from a near-split last month.
For now, risks to our growth forecasts are slightly to the upside. If this leads to stickier inflation...The Fed might end up staying on hold for longer than expected
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PMI awaiting this week, many FED talks, Keep focus on that,too. New update also above, I have published the next levelsบันทึกช่วยจำ
NQ New Lecels updated: Down will be 17475 17400 17373 17316 17306 17246 17189 17172 17120 - A break above 17569 will affect NQ RISING to 17606 17701 17720 17802 17887 17939 ,A break above 17939 will bring back NQ to 17984 18043 and higher .Firther levels if breaking: 17095 17033 16990 16827
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Weaker than expected Unemployment claims(good for Dolalr) was surprisingly beaten by lower than expected PMI that now once again generating Bullish enthusiasm. I am waiting for a last confirmation, to brea above the Alltime high, that will fairly not enough,soIwill wait to calculate the speed of the momentum above the All time High breakout:If the speed lower than 50 NQ wont stay too much longer at that level and will fall back. To around 17350-17550 again(But the tren should stay bullish) If The result is abovethan 55,NQ will attack the next level,18220 18535 187350 19200 I am still bullish as you now, but wont buy at this moment ,although my systemgenrating high quality Buy signals, but instead will increase my Longs after the lat confirmationบันทึกช่วยจำ
Trend Bullish,my positions long,and I stay bullish.Currently nonewer longs, as am still waiting for my last favourite confirmation:As you have seen Iahve mentioned the importance of confirmaton not enough.Exactly at the the top NQ was not ableto develope strong momentum,and fell back, as ecpected.Tomorrowthe very important US GDP, unless the confirmation above thelevelsmentionedon prioruptaeds has not occured, I wont buy more, instead letting the profits run...บันทึกช่วยจำ
Friday! Tommorrow! NFP!!!! Nonfarm Payrolls! Very important!บันทึกช่วยจำ
Trend still strong bullish,but I am still waiting for my final confirmation,to add more longs! NQ seems to expected gooddatas for NQ, but as I said, it seems...´´No confirmation, no action by me...Patience is hard, but it will pay off...The fundamental datas are diverse, somegoodforNQ ,but on the other hand some warning for stocks, Chicago PMI
Non-Farm Employment Change will be published next friday!Interesting! After Powels testimony on Wednesday and Thurseday next week, Soagain manyFED members will be speaing:And you know what!?EVERYTIME THE ECONOMY start cooling,those guys start speaking public. And their speeches are diverging,One talks positivelyabout economy,andinflation,the other one talking negative...It seems,...ThereforI dont trustwhat they sayordataypublishing, instead,stay logical following my strategy..USE ALWAYS STOPS!!!!!!
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hedged my longs short.a I said I dont trust the news, now we see whyบันทึกช่วยจำ
heges out.strong buy again,fullhouse buy ignal.Increased my longs ,looking forward for new all time highsบันทึกช่วยจำ
NQ Bullish like thehell.Increasedd longsบันทึกช่วยจำ
NQ will hit 5 new All time Highs soon. In minimum!บันทึกช่วยจำ
No good day to trade NQ.I wait till good signalบันทึกช่วยจำ
Buy signal NQ Staying longบันทึกช่วยจำ
Hedged my longs Short.Its going downบันทึกช่วยจำ
I am already short hedged .Cloing price of Friday was 17815 First short profit target is at 17707The 2nd Short Profit target is at 17568
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Short hedges closed. Longs activeบันทึกช่วยจำ
Today red day!Powellspeaking.Asia open was redบันทึกช่วยจำ
The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge is expected to show prices climbed a bit last month, confirming the trend shown in the CPI report released earlier in March.With Fed Chair Powell recently stating that the central bank will cut rates this year, Wall Street is hoping stocks may benefit from easing monetary policy later in 2024.
The market an Wallstreet very nervouse this week
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If you recall, the CPI came in notably higher than expected, with prices climbing 0.4% month-over-month, putting inflation at a 3.2% annual rate. This was above forecasts of a 3.1% yearly increase.Energy prices were the difference maker this time around, as gasoline prices climbed 3.8% in February, a stark reversal from January’s deflationary -3.3% reading. This pushed energy prices up 2.3% in February, snapping a four-month deflationary streak for the inflation category.
Goldman Sachs economists project the PCE will climb 0.36% from the month prior, pushing the annual rate to 2.47%. This would be slightly higher than the 2.4% yearly inflation level recorded in January, in which prices climbed 0.3% month-over-month.
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