This will be interesting to keep an eye on over the coming years.
If the ending triangle is a wave C diagonal, then it would signal the end of the down-trend in yields over the past 23+ years. Zero fundamental analysis was conducted, but it would seem there is upward pressure on yields at a time that 10 year T bonds is in a corrective phase - down 12+% from 2012 highs.
Each wave C of the first two ABC corrections extended ~1:1 but not less. The current ABC has extended slightly more than 0.786 and is displaying a tightening range.
If the triangle is a a wave 1 diagonal then this would strongly imply moderate to strong upward pressure on government bonds and a conservative estimate of 44+ is possible.
The most plausible bearish scenario would be a downward breakout to around the 1:1 extension of wave A down to the sub 17 range. That would place the triangle in the wave 4 position in wave C down.
The next couple of years will illuminate all. Another possibility is a meandering sideways correction instead of a definitive breakout. Yes I am covering my bases; it could go up, down, or sideways :) But I expect a trend change with some strength behind it.
I am not an investor in this market. But am sharing this for my own technical analysis education.
If the ending triangle is a wave C diagonal, then it would signal the end of the down-trend in yields over the past 23+ years. Zero fundamental analysis was conducted, but it would seem there is upward pressure on yields at a time that 10 year T bonds is in a corrective phase - down 12+% from 2012 highs.
Each wave C of the first two ABC corrections extended ~1:1 but not less. The current ABC has extended slightly more than 0.786 and is displaying a tightening range.
If the triangle is a a wave 1 diagonal then this would strongly imply moderate to strong upward pressure on government bonds and a conservative estimate of 44+ is possible.
The most plausible bearish scenario would be a downward breakout to around the 1:1 extension of wave A down to the sub 17 range. That would place the triangle in the wave 4 position in wave C down.
The next couple of years will illuminate all. Another possibility is a meandering sideways correction instead of a definitive breakout. Yes I am covering my bases; it could go up, down, or sideways :) But I expect a trend change with some strength behind it.
I am not an investor in this market. But am sharing this for my own technical analysis education.
ความคิดเห็น:
scenario 2 it is... continuation of the trend