Twitter (TWTR) had many of the characteristics of being a potential big winner. But as is the case in the market so often, what is obvious to the masses, is not what ends up happening in the end.
After its initial public offering in 2013, the stock setup an IPO base and advanced approximately 100% from the breakout. But that is as far as the stock would run. The stock would almost immediately drop 60% over the next five months in heavier volume.
The stock attempted to rally back at least two time over the following year, only to stall and sell off in heavier volume, forming a double top bearish base. The stock broke the neckline in July 2015, only to rally back and stall at the double top neckline in October 2015 and rollover.
As the market has attempted to rally over the six weeks, the stock has pulled back to the fifty day moving average in low volume. Lagging the market significantly.
A breakdown from these levels, in heavy volume, would signal more downside. Seeing that the stock is significantly below its IPO price and approaching the $15 institutional threshold for holding a position, the downside could be significant. The risk is incessant take over talk that swirls around the stock.