Multiple Compression of $TTD

14 ส.ค.

- TTD is no longer the high flying market darling
- Growth has been coming down from high 30s to 20s and now to high teens. This calls for lowering multiple

Fundamentally,

Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 0.82 | 1.09 | 1.41 | 1.89
eps% | -49.61% | 32.28% | 29.08% | 34.47%

- This year eps is negative and in the future it's growing again therefore 2025 is a good year to accumulate TTD at or close to fair value.
- A company growing eps 30%+ deserves a forward p/e of 30 as a base case

- Fair stock value (base case) with forward p/e of 30

Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
fair value | 24.6 | 32.7 | 42.3 | 56

- Fair stock value (bull case) with forward p/e of 40

Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
fair value | 32 | 43 | 56 | 75

- Fair stock value (bear case) with forward p/e of 20

Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
fair value | 16 | 21 | 28 | 37.8


- Personally, I have started accumulating but ideally want to add significantly in that accumulation box I have highlighted in the chart.
- Note: I have linked my old posts where I shorted TTD and went long TTD

15 ส.ค.

บันทึก

Holding TTD, no new net buying for me as I am taking watch & see approach as of now. I would buy more under $45 if we get there.

28 ส.ค.

บันทึก

- Added more on $52.xx to lower my average from $62 to $57

10 ก.ย.

บันทึก

- Breakdown continues on TTD

10 ก.ย.

บันทึก

- TTD under 40 would be nice!