There is a lot to unpack with regard to Tesla's price action. Due to the crappy price action we've been getting there are multiple different directions this thing can take. As you notice, there is a key in the upper right corner labeling my counts and their priority/color. As of now we are in my target box and structure looks as if it could be considered complete.
As you notice on the chart my blue fib retracement lines show we're very close to the 0.382. Price should ideally be contained by this as it is a normal ending for wave 4's. I wouldn't be surprised if we made OMH, but I don't want us to cross the blue 0.5 fib though as this would mean we are likely in something other than wave (4). Don't forget though, this count isn't invalidated until price breaches $234.58. That would mean (4) raises all the way to cross into wave (2) territory, but we will get clues before then.
A couple other things that are leading me to believe we're headed lower very soon is the S&P and NQ both appear to need a retrace (micro b) to the downside. Looking at the 3min chart we have some neg div building signaling a move to the downside. As you see below, I believe the reason for the explosiveness is we are in c wave of (4). Wave (2) was long and deep so I would expect (4) to be short and shallow. Hence the thought process we shouldn't cross the blue 0.382, or if we do, not by much.
One thing that does have me slightly concerned with this count though, is the MACD on the 1Hr chart. It has risen very high for a wave 4 and has almost breached the B wave high. If we drop for (5) before rising much more it is no big deal, but something I'm watching none the less. As I have said before, it is the little things that most miss yet are the most important. Due to this little sore thumb sticking out though, it has caused me to add a 2nd ALT to the chart. This is saying that we have indeed already bottomed and will head up towards the $300 range soon. I find this is a VERY low probability but want to be prepared for it nonetheless. Don't lose sight of us coming to the end of a trend. For this to change direction and start heading up / change trend peoples phycology must change. This usually manifests as choppy price action towards the end of the count as the average trader's sub-conscience slowly changes. When it finally does change though...that is what causes the rip your face off move we see in wave 3's. Good luck y'all. I'm taking my Gma to a Dr. Apt tomorrow a.m so I may not be available part of the morning but will update when able.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
As you notice on the chart my blue fib retracement lines show we're very close to the 0.382. Price should ideally be contained by this as it is a normal ending for wave 4's. I wouldn't be surprised if we made OMH, but I don't want us to cross the blue 0.5 fib though as this would mean we are likely in something other than wave (4). Don't forget though, this count isn't invalidated until price breaches $234.58. That would mean (4) raises all the way to cross into wave (2) territory, but we will get clues before then.
A couple other things that are leading me to believe we're headed lower very soon is the S&P and NQ both appear to need a retrace (micro b) to the downside. Looking at the 3min chart we have some neg div building signaling a move to the downside. As you see below, I believe the reason for the explosiveness is we are in c wave of (4). Wave (2) was long and deep so I would expect (4) to be short and shallow. Hence the thought process we shouldn't cross the blue 0.382, or if we do, not by much.
One thing that does have me slightly concerned with this count though, is the MACD on the 1Hr chart. It has risen very high for a wave 4 and has almost breached the B wave high. If we drop for (5) before rising much more it is no big deal, but something I'm watching none the less. As I have said before, it is the little things that most miss yet are the most important. Due to this little sore thumb sticking out though, it has caused me to add a 2nd ALT to the chart. This is saying that we have indeed already bottomed and will head up towards the $300 range soon. I find this is a VERY low probability but want to be prepared for it nonetheless. Don't lose sight of us coming to the end of a trend. For this to change direction and start heading up / change trend peoples phycology must change. This usually manifests as choppy price action towards the end of the count as the average trader's sub-conscience slowly changes. When it finally does change though...that is what causes the rip your face off move we see in wave 3's. Good luck y'all. I'm taking my Gma to a Dr. Apt tomorrow a.m so I may not be available part of the morning but will update when able.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
ความคิดเห็น:
For whatever reason when I went downstairs, I pulled out my phone and started looking at the Tesla chart again. That 1HR MACD was just really nagging at me. Again, it's the little things. I started trying to apply a different corrective count to it and came up with the count below. The next couple days will be very important to say the least. If we raise impulsively tomorrow, I may just adopt this count as it fits so well. It would however, mean that we will not be going sub $200 again....like ever again unless there is a stock split. ***If you're not flat Tesla I would get flat ASAP*** I will be watching much more closely tomorrow I can garuntee that!
ความคิดเห็น:
We hit the 1.0 and bounced down. If this is to be (4) I want to see us head lower from here.
ความคิดเห็น:
This next drop should answer our question about the count. if it appears impulsive and makes a new low, then it's (5). If it drops correctively to form an ABC pattern and does NOT make a new low, then my extra count added last night becomes my primary, and I will be going long at the bottom of that retrace.
ความคิดเห็น:
The fact we breached the 1.0 and breached the high of the previous wave iv I am starting to like the new ALT count more and more. This move down today looks corrective too. I don't like how it's micro wave 1 started though...seems like an a wave to me but we shall see.
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Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
