Tesla - Spring Time Doldrums

20 เม.ย. 2023

I've seen it happen several times now where Tesla Scrathes and Claws it's way up for a few dollars over the span of a week or 2 and then in Minutes it drops like a stone. The power of those Shorting it is truelly remarkable but once you understand the concept that they can flood the market at a moments notice with millions of shares there's not much to hold it up.
So now that the Q1F's are behild us, where do we go from here? Well I've drawn the primary trendlines and the pattern is Definitely Down and will remain this way for at least the next 8 - 10 weeks. It doesn't mean Tesla will continue to drop in one fell swoop but will trade in a downward horizontal zigzag pattern as usual. I have also drawn in several lines of support and resistance and my expectation for another run up to the Q2F's but it is no longer likely that we will see $200.00 by then, more likely around $186.00. Now of course Tesla won't trade directly South and there will still be opportunities to trade the swings as Tesla presents us with $8.00 up and $10.00 - $12.00 down however it is important to realize the Trend will remain Bearish in a Downward pattern till the end of June before a healthy reversal begins. As well I've tried to accurately place Andrews Pitchfork that reflects potential for upward forward movement and potential for additional strength and higher price points through the fall and early winter season. So if you haven't sold you could consider selling yet to preserve your capital and then buy back at a lower expected price point as your potential for a greater % gain can then be amplified, and if you already sold then congratulations and now just wait for that golden opportunity ... Of course, you can still trade the swings.

22 เม.ย. 2023

บันทึก

So what are the pro's and cons at this point that are currently, can be, and will be affecting the stock price over the next 2.5 months taking us to the 2QF's? Now this is in no particular order and everyone feel free to brainstorm with me so we have a better understanding as we watch the price fluctuate.
1) How effetcively will Musk's team work to drive costs lower and thereby increase margins back up to where they were?
2) Will the Fed's hold the line on rate increases?
3) If the Fed's raise the rates again sending the US into a potential short term recession, how much greater will this impact persons discretionary spending on EV consumables?
4) If the GigaFactories are able to ramp up production higher than where they are at, what good is it to have cars sitting idol not generating profits if the country is in a recession?
5) How fast is Tesla rolling out their Nationwide Charging Stations to accommodate not just Tesla's but all other EV's that have the same charging recepticle?
6) Can Shanghai's Gigafactory expand faster than the plan calls for, to ramp up production in the Largest EV market in the world?
7) In order for Tesla to meet Musk's Target of 20 million EV's by 2030, Tesla would require a minimum (by my estimates) of 14 GigaFactories around the world working at maximum production... He will need to build on average at least 1.5 more per year for the next 7 years to achieve this, but we have'nt been advised of this in their Long Term Plans?
8) No More Price Cuts, Please!
9) The CATL production plant in the US is a great concept but needs to pass a couple of Hurdles yet to get off the ground. Tesla needs more than just plans. They need to break ground. Perhaps if Musk buys several Million shares of CATL might help spur the red tape process?
10) Musk needs to act more like a CEO than a spoiled child... This is what I call my "MUSK EFFECT" Technical Indicator and recently it's been causing a Negative Divergence on the company stock. When he starts to sct as a man of his stature he'll gain back much of his credibilty and may garner new interet in the company.
11) With the recent 1QF's behind us, my greatest fear now are the potential Analyst Downgrades that will definitely be coming and will affect the price! It's a matter of how many there might be and by whom?