Update 2 - Tron (TRX) - Elliott Wave Count and Prediction - 4hr
ที่อัปเดต:
The updated wave count for Tron (TRXUSD) from January 21st still stands. Although the timing I proposed was a bit ambitious, the wave count is holding up beautifully.
Here is what you are looking at:
1. Red vertical lines: Time cycle beginning at the low of .01216364 on December 7th, 2018 and ending on December 24th. On this 4 hour chart, that is 103 'bars' which is 17.166 days. These bars correlate within hours of reversals for ending: wave (2) of W1, wave (3) of W1, wave (5) of W1 and now wave 1 of (3) of W3.
2. Green vertical lines: Time cycle beginning at the low of .01829375 on December 28th, 2018 and ending on January 13th, 2019. On this 4 hour chart, that is 101 'bars' which is 16.8333 days. These bars correlate within hours of reversals for ending: wave (4) of W1 and wave (c) of W2.
For the above vertical lines, we have, from Red to Green, the following time cycle: 23 bars (3d 20h); then from Green to Red: 80 bars (13d 8h). If this pattern holds, we will see correction until around January 30th, 2019.
3. Moving Averages: The fast SMA is 78 bars which is 13 days. The slow SMA is 204 bars which is 34 days. These are currently bullish.
4. Chaiken Money Flow: This is a relatively new indicator FOR ME, so I'm not quite adept in explaining it, but I do know that any value above zero means cash is flowing into the coin while a value below zero means cash is flowing out. It appears we are right at the zero line which implies a balanced state or potential sideways movement. If anyone wants to interject an opinion, please do so.
5. MACD: Appears to be crossing south, but without a divergence. This likely means a period of short-term consolidation/correction
Overall, I expect a pullback to touch the 13 day moving average (~.026) with a slowed, downward and/or sideways movement for 2-3 more days. If it breaks through the fast moving average, expect a test of the slow, 34 day moving average around .024. Once wave 2 of (3) of W3 is complete, expect hard and fast movement northward for a wave 3 of (3) of W3.
Please note that if this current correction (at the time of writing this --green arrow) breaches the low of .02313579 from January 20, 2019 (red arrow), then my wave count is largely, if not entirely invalidated. Should this happen, my entire count would likely change with the trend adjusting downward.
Here is what you are looking at:
1. Red vertical lines: Time cycle beginning at the low of .01216364 on December 7th, 2018 and ending on December 24th. On this 4 hour chart, that is 103 'bars' which is 17.166 days. These bars correlate within hours of reversals for ending: wave (2) of W1, wave (3) of W1, wave (5) of W1 and now wave 1 of (3) of W3.
2. Green vertical lines: Time cycle beginning at the low of .01829375 on December 28th, 2018 and ending on January 13th, 2019. On this 4 hour chart, that is 101 'bars' which is 16.8333 days. These bars correlate within hours of reversals for ending: wave (4) of W1 and wave (c) of W2.
For the above vertical lines, we have, from Red to Green, the following time cycle: 23 bars (3d 20h); then from Green to Red: 80 bars (13d 8h). If this pattern holds, we will see correction until around January 30th, 2019.
3. Moving Averages: The fast SMA is 78 bars which is 13 days. The slow SMA is 204 bars which is 34 days. These are currently bullish.
4. Chaiken Money Flow: This is a relatively new indicator FOR ME, so I'm not quite adept in explaining it, but I do know that any value above zero means cash is flowing into the coin while a value below zero means cash is flowing out. It appears we are right at the zero line which implies a balanced state or potential sideways movement. If anyone wants to interject an opinion, please do so.
5. MACD: Appears to be crossing south, but without a divergence. This likely means a period of short-term consolidation/correction
Overall, I expect a pullback to touch the 13 day moving average (~.026) with a slowed, downward and/or sideways movement for 2-3 more days. If it breaks through the fast moving average, expect a test of the slow, 34 day moving average around .024. Once wave 2 of (3) of W3 is complete, expect hard and fast movement northward for a wave 3 of (3) of W3.
Please note that if this current correction (at the time of writing this --green arrow) breaches the low of .02313579 from January 20, 2019 (red arrow), then my wave count is largely, if not entirely invalidated. Should this happen, my entire count would likely change with the trend adjusting downward.
การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่
My EWT wave count and timing prediction are both holding up beautifully. Based on the time cycle patterns, the very short-term correction should be coming to an end in less than 24hrs. Once a wave 3 of (3) of W3 begins, it will be extremely rapid in both time and price.การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่
The probability of my TRXUSD wave count being accurate is now extremely high. Although my time cycle prediction wasn't accurate, what matters most is the wave structure and price predictions. As we progress on this W3, it is not unrealistic to expect price to hit $.036 in the next 2 weeks. However, I will focus more on the price target than the time prediction.If you enjoy reading my technical analysis and would like to continue being updated on TRXUSD, please donate at the TRX address below. If you would like for me to perform an Elliott Wave analysis on any other digital currency, please dont hesitate to ask.
Tron Wallet:
TDmNsWxomkDKEwdGZDjiUUNAoMg1GaJc7i
การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่
I'll post an updated chart later, but I'm now near term bearish on TRXUSD. It appears we are just completing a triangle as a wave 'b' which means we can expect another push lower to the .0185 area before the 3rd wave begins. Overall, I'm holding my position and widening my stops to allow for this subsequent wave c to unfold. More later.การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่
Unfortunately, my trial is about to end and as the sole provider to a family of four, I won't be able to afford the Tradingview subscription cost. This means my sharing of accurate wave counts along with price predictions will come to an end. Wave counting and general analysis is a hobby that I'm actually really, really good at. For me to continue this handle and justify spending time (and money) away from my daily engineering job and, most importantly, my 9 month old, I must have donations of any size to one of the following addresses to continue:Ethereum:
0x3da8377Fa72DBbfA8a8bFd7F86fD3545eA15Af06
Bitcoin:
33LaTVpfMGB6yeWmvUbw2fuDETvbBSd6Dq
Ripple:
r3XErFmiH2x7aj1ozD9bV7zwVcPYwBwDfb
Tron:
TDmNsWxomkDKEwdGZDjiUUNAoMg1GaJc7i
Cardano:
Ae2tdPwUPEZ4mWp9fS2Upa993wR6U3fBnm9diSkAXtm19rWg571RmtXQftd
Good luck and good trading!
Justin
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