Treasury yields have been a major driver of sentiment since early 2022. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped above 1.75 percent at the beginning of the bear market last January. But now it may be showing signs of a top.

The first pattern on today’s chart is the falling trendline along the highs of October, November and December. Notice how TNX began the New Year (and a new week) by sharply dropping from this resistance.

Second, the rejection occurred at the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Interestingly, this is different than we saw in August, when the yield leaped above the SMA. It’s also noteworthy that the SMA has been falling since early December, another potential sign of the trend reversing lower.

Next, consider the longer-term levels. TNX peaked at 4.32 percent in 2008 and 4.014 percent the following year. Given the recent price action, that general zone seems to be holding as resistance.

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