SPY Analysis - Market Breadth, Fed Rate Cycles, and Inflation
I measure the breadth in the S&P as the SPY (market cap weighted S&P) divided by RSP (equal weighted S&P ETF). The higher the ratio, the more concentrated the market, and therefore less market breadth.
As can be seen, nearly every time the ratio has neared 3.0, the Fed has ensued with an easy money policy, and the SPY subsequently turned bullish. During these times, Fed rates, as well as inflation, were relatively low.
There are several exceptions. in November and December 2021, the ratio neared 3.0 at 2.97, and the Fed ensued in early 2022 with an historic rate tightening cycle, on the heals of persistent inflation of 4.7 percent in 2021 which had resulted (and continues today) from the massive COVID stimulus program. The end result was the selloff in we experienced in 2022.
Another exception was the period from 2015 to 2019, when rates were gradually raised, but maxed out at 2.40 in a relatively low inflation environment. This is not the environment that we are in today.
Today, we have already had a 50 - 61% retrace from the low posted in October, 2022, and the market breadth is again at a low (SPY/RSP=3.00) . The Fed now has the option of pausing/easing and in effect pump a bull, but by doing so it will face a huge dilemma: with an annual inflation rate of 8 percent, and the largest budget deficit in modern history, a return to easy money will further fuel inflation.
The other option would be to continue the rate hikes, and promote an economic collapse (starting with the banking sector), which will effectively bring the breadth issue to rest (along with the entire market).
Neither of these are good options. Bitter pill...
As can be seen, nearly every time the ratio has neared 3.0, the Fed has ensued with an easy money policy, and the SPY subsequently turned bullish. During these times, Fed rates, as well as inflation, were relatively low.
There are several exceptions. in November and December 2021, the ratio neared 3.0 at 2.97, and the Fed ensued in early 2022 with an historic rate tightening cycle, on the heals of persistent inflation of 4.7 percent in 2021 which had resulted (and continues today) from the massive COVID stimulus program. The end result was the selloff in we experienced in 2022.
Another exception was the period from 2015 to 2019, when rates were gradually raised, but maxed out at 2.40 in a relatively low inflation environment. This is not the environment that we are in today.
Today, we have already had a 50 - 61% retrace from the low posted in October, 2022, and the market breadth is again at a low (SPY/RSP=3.00) . The Fed now has the option of pausing/easing and in effect pump a bull, but by doing so it will face a huge dilemma: with an annual inflation rate of 8 percent, and the largest budget deficit in modern history, a return to easy money will further fuel inflation.
The other option would be to continue the rate hikes, and promote an economic collapse (starting with the banking sector), which will effectively bring the breadth issue to rest (along with the entire market).
Neither of these are good options. Bitter pill...
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