SPY
ที่อัปเดต:
I think that the market has currently burned it's fuel, meaning it bottomed. Compare the current pattern to the October 1987 crash and you will notice the similarities. Economic numbers are looking strong. We can find a nice channel structure with a 5-wave Elliott wave pattern in the descent, helping us to gauge potential resistance for the counter move.
Generally the minimum target would be the zone of wave 4, so there is still some room towards up. It also helps that we crossed the 50 hour simple moving average. If anything, i would judge the current move up as a double zigzag. At this point, we have completed the first zigzag and might be heading back down. This also fits with the fact that we just hit the descending channel and the 38% retracement zone.
Generally the minimum target would be the zone of wave 4, so there is still some room towards up. It also helps that we crossed the 50 hour simple moving average. If anything, i would judge the current move up as a double zigzag. At this point, we have completed the first zigzag and might be heading back down. This also fits with the fact that we just hit the descending channel and the 38% retracement zone.
บันทึกช่วยจำ
A more bullish picture: Instead of having a B wave retracing all the way to the lower part of the channel, we could also slide along the upper channel boundary, break out, and complete a measured move up, which would lead us all the way to the 61.8% fibonacci line.
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