The Last Defence, 26th Sep 2022
🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Crucial week ahead for the Bulls to defend the yearly lows. First defensive effort was mounted by the Bulls to finish Friday trade away from the daily low. Price gapped down below the 2nd last level of support. The close of the candle points to continued bearish behaviour in the very short-term.
➤ VIX spiked over 30 again. There is certainly panic selling. The question is if the panic is just starting or will it recede? Further panic will most certainly break the yearly lows. That may snowball.
➤ European markets like the DAX have already succumbed to new yearly lows.
➤ Since I theorised for the Bullish case in my last post, let's talk about the why there is no bottom in sight:
● Employment numbers are still relatively strong.
● Property prices are hovering at all time highs
● Lack of bankruptcies
● Strong US Dollar is creating havoc, Asian and EM currencies have collapsed below multi-decade lows. Currency intervention by Japan and Korea most recently.
● Interest rates moving upwards fast in an unconstrained manner
➤ Some of these factors are starting to jolt a panic response. Others are yet to even show their hand. There are plenty of things that haven't even broken. Somethings need to break for a true bottom to form.
➤ My exposure is currently 0% with no positions. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.
➤ Conclusion: Still waiting on the sidelines. Eager to get back in the action but only the right time! 💯
➤ Crucial week ahead for the Bulls to defend the yearly lows. First defensive effort was mounted by the Bulls to finish Friday trade away from the daily low. Price gapped down below the 2nd last level of support. The close of the candle points to continued bearish behaviour in the very short-term.
➤ VIX spiked over 30 again. There is certainly panic selling. The question is if the panic is just starting or will it recede? Further panic will most certainly break the yearly lows. That may snowball.
➤ European markets like the DAX have already succumbed to new yearly lows.
➤ Since I theorised for the Bullish case in my last post, let's talk about the why there is no bottom in sight:
● Employment numbers are still relatively strong.
● Property prices are hovering at all time highs
● Lack of bankruptcies
● Strong US Dollar is creating havoc, Asian and EM currencies have collapsed below multi-decade lows. Currency intervention by Japan and Korea most recently.
● Interest rates moving upwards fast in an unconstrained manner
➤ Some of these factors are starting to jolt a panic response. Others are yet to even show their hand. There are plenty of things that haven't even broken. Somethings need to break for a true bottom to form.
➤ My exposure is currently 0% with no positions. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.
➤ Conclusion: Still waiting on the sidelines. Eager to get back in the action but only the right time! 💯
🏆 eToro Popular Investor 💰
✅ Copy My Trades @ eToro, etoro.com/people/mrstocky
✅ Verified Track Record 📈
Not Investment Advice
✅ Copy My Trades @ eToro, etoro.com/people/mrstocky
✅ Verified Track Record 📈
Not Investment Advice
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมที่ ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน