$SPY hold of $580-588 region sets up long to $614-630

22 ม.ค.

SPY looks like it's formed a low for the short term when it failed the H&S pattern.

From here, I think it's likely that we fall back into the $580-588 to scare everyone into thinking there's more downside, but if that region holds, it'll set up a trigger long all the way up to the $614-$630 region.

I think the move higher should play out by mid-February (again if that $580-588 region holds). If it fails, then we're looking back down at the lower support level $545.

If we do end up going higher, I think that $630 region will be the short term top and it'll set up a move down to $545 before we move higher.

22 ม.ค.

บันทึก

Think it's more likely that we see a decline to $598 this week and then likely retest the highs. Further down next week.

24 ม.ค.

บันทึก

Welp start of a decline into close. Part of me wonders whether we hold at $580-588 or if we test $545 first before going to $630. Let's see.

As of now, I'm thinking decline into next week. Bounce into Feb 14, then position short into mid-late march.

Let's see as price action unfolds.

27 ม.ค.

บันทึก

Looking for a hold of $588-580 to trigger the long. Thinking we may only go to $614-615 from here.

7 วันที่ผ่านมา

บันทึก

We likely bottom tomorrow. Let's see.

6 วันที่ผ่านมา

บันทึก

Yesterday's low at $590 may have been the low. If it is, I could see price going to $614 next.

6 วันที่ผ่านมา

บันทึก

Now I'm torn. I could actually see a sweep of the lows happening pre-fomc tomorrow and hitting my lower target(s).

Then rally after.

6 วันที่ผ่านมา

บันทึก

I think it's less likely we see a huge move down today now based on price action. Possible, but not my base case. I think more likely is we retest the $598-600 region then continue higher.

5 วันที่ผ่านมา

บันทึก

As planned... am long into next week.

เมื่อวาน

บันทึก

Welp my long options will likely get killed this week but the majority of my options are in volatility. Will likely sell all of my UVXY tomorrow if SPY gets to $588-580 and then flip long again for the real bounce. Then I expect the final move down towards the end of the month into March, so will hedge again towards mid Feb.

เมื่อวาน

บันทึก

Doesn't look like we're going to get lower yet haha this market is nuts. Luckily kept all of my long options- positioned for either direction, think we may see a massive squeeze higher though before more downside. Maybe $614? Dunno not going to add anything, just going to watch price action.