SPY: Monitoring the 2M timeframe trend

16 พ.ค. 2019

SPY is close to forming a long term trend signal once again, but time is not enough to trigger this signal yet. I've been looking at the product of the VIX and SSKEW to obtain an indicator of sentiment extremes in equities (idea borrowed from timwest). It appears options traders are buying calls lately as the price of calls is more expensive than normal lately, while VIX remains rather low.
As hedging is done normally by buying far out of the money put options, there's a tendency for put option prices to be more expensive when moving out of the money (as there would be mostly large buyers of said options -think 401ks, mutual funds, etc-, compared to mostly sellers of out of the money call options -think covered call strategies-).
Right now calls remain more expensive when compared to puts, which makes me think sentiment is not looking good on the long side.
I'm cautious here, mostly interested in buying stocks for the long term once there's as large enough accumulation pattern in the 2M chart.

This won't happen until the end of August, so a trend signal kicking off during September/October wouldn't shock me. This matches the timing of the potential Bitcoin move I foresee happening by the same dates. It would most likely look similar to the move that happened after the 2016 bottom.

Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.

31 พ.ค. 2019

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As anticipated, the market did fall following my forecast. There's a potential short term buy signal today, so it might be at a local bottom and about to rebound before moving sideways again.

31 พ.ค. 2019

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May 31st, 2019

9 ก.ย. 2019

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Looks like I got this analysis mostly right...Now time to keep marching higher.