I'm a Skeptic, 1st Feb 2023

31 ม.ค. 2023

🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈

➤ Equities finished strongly to end an outstanding month. The enthusiasm is palpable, however, I'm a skeptic of market conditions for two reasons:

i) Many believe we are back in a bull market. I think this is pre-mature. A monthly close above 411.73 will change my mind. The market did not achieve this just yet. The current level of the S&P500 equity index is where it was in May 2022. The market has moved laterally. Furthermore, the move since the October 2022 low looks very laboured. It's not a fast rise, each step up is very small. It's not displaying the kind of strong buying with confidence.

ii) In the very short-term, I also don't like the way the price finished today. It may be a minor observation but I don't like to see a bullish bar finish below a recent high (27th Jan 2023). Why stop just short of the high and not exceed it?

➤ I closed my small long position to wait for the next opportunity.

➤ Conclusion: Back on the sideline but not for long.