SPY - Scenario 1 still Favors the Bears

Unless bulls can push above 447.08, bears still in control imo. We have a W4 ascending triangle awaiting confirmation of a break up or down. A break down should take us into 409-416 area where I would be more inclined to BTD for a move into 450's.

A break above would set up our Scenario 2 which has also been posted.