"Th-Th-The, Th-Th-The, Th-Th... That's all, folks!", 15 Mar 2023

15 มี.ค. 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈

➤ Equities recovered all losses since last Friday when things really started to fall apart. In the words of Porky Pig: "Th-Th-The, Th-Th-The, Th-Th... That's all, folks!" With a bit of a stutter, the crisis is all but averted. Sound the all clear!

➤ Well, that's my view in the very short-term from a technical basis. The only thing that I'm waiting for is an exit signal and/or a signal to reverse my short position to a buy/long position. What happens after the very short-term is anyone's guess.

➤ I note that there is a lower gap that has formed as a result of today's price action. Let's see if the gap is filled immediately or at a later date.

➤ From a fundamental perspective, if the crisis is resolved/contained, then there is no reason for the Fed to pause rising interest rates. They can keep pushing rates higher in order to fight inflation until "something" else breaks. That means there is no immediate "pivot".

➤ Conclusion: Watch the VIX to see if volatilty remains heightened or it continues to collapse post assurances by the US regulatory authorities.

NOTES: Tech outperformed last couple of days. I assume much of this is based on the "pivot" or lower rate expectations.