Back to Square One, 15th Sep 2022

14 ก.ย. 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈

➤ Same working title as yesterday. Prices are still at square one. There was hardly any bounce but prices managed to hold support. The market is not giving much away about its next move...

➤ I have closed the long positions in DAX and EUSTX50 (STOXX50) and have reversed to a small short position (-10% exposure each). This small exposure reflects a lower conviction trade. A high conviction position is a maximum +/- 40% exposure in a single index.

➤ As mentioned previously, based on my analysis, the European & US indices are at different places in the price structure. During these phases, we may experience an inherently hedged portfolio like yesterday where overall exposure was neutral and we have opposing positions. This will resolve itself as the indices play catch up and re-sync given their high correlations.

➤ My overall exposure shifted to -60%. Low conviction at a portfolio level. I still hold shorts in S&P500 and DJIA. The maximum exposure is +/- 200%, the level of highest conviction.

➤ Conclusion: I think Thursday's price action may provide a telltale sign. If price bounce or hold support again, I would be leaning towards a return to a bullish stance.